JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Mr Impossible]

23 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Not much verse with Japense box office, though feel that The Lion King can do ginormous business in Japan. Baahubali: The Conclusion which has its similarities to The Lion King in story had good reception there, so have two questions.

1. How much The Lion King (original) did in Japan?

2. Can the The Lion King (2019) do in excess of $175mn in Japan.

Probably not. $80m - $90m is my prediction right now. 

[KP1025]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Not much verse with Japense box office, though feel that The Lion King can do ginormous business in Japan. Baahubali: The Conclusion which has its similarities to The Lion King in story had good reception there, so have two questions.

1. How much The Lion King (original) did in Japan?

2. Can the The Lion King (2019) do in excess of $175mn in Japan.

 

According to Corpse, The Lion King (1994) grossed ¥3.20 billion in Japan. It was beaten by Aladdin, which grossed  ¥4.25 billion a year earlier. Not that this really means much, as the live-action Beauty and the Beast grossed much more than its animated counterpart (it seemingly missed  ¥3 billion in Japan). Market is a bit different now in terms of brand power/awareness. I hope The Lion King can gross over  ¥10 billion like Beauty and the Beast since Japan adores musicals and cuteness. 

[Tower]

(C)2018 Warner Bros. Ent. All Rights Reserved Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts Publishing Rights (C)J.K. Rowling

Weekend Forecast (11/24-25)
01 (---) ¥825,000,000 ($7.3 million), 0, ¥1,475,000,000 ($13.1 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (01) ¥457,000,000 ($4.0 million), +18%, ¥2,400,000,000 ($21.4 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK3
03 (03) ¥122,000,000 ($1.4 million), -20%, ¥1,420,000,000 ($12.6 million), Stolen Identity (Toho) WK4
04 (02) ¥118,000,000 ($1.1 million), -39%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($17.2 million), Venom (Sony) WK4
05 (04) ¥109,000,000 ($1.0 million), -26%, ¥520,000,000 ($4.6 million), The House Where the Mermaid Sleeps (Shochiku) WK2
06 (05) ¥x74,000,000 ($655,000), -25%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.4 million), You, I Love (Asmik Ace) WK3
07 (07) ¥x66,000,000 ($585,000), -16%, ¥1,050,000,000 ($9.3 million), Hugtto! Pretty Cure: All Stars Memories (Toei) WK5
08 (06) ¥x56,000,000 ($495,000), -40%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), BTS - Burn the Stage: The Movie (Toho Video Division) WK2
09 (11) ¥x18,000,000 ($160,000),-20%, ¥520,000,000 ($4.6 million), The Traveling Cat Chronicles (Shochiku) WK5
10 (08) ¥x13,000,000 ($115,000), -52%, ¥220,000,000 ($1.9 million), Godzilla: The Planet Eater (Toho) WK3

>Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald isn't showing any early signs of declining from its predecessor, and appears set to debut on par with it. I checked how well Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened on November 23rd of 2016, the same day that Crimes of Grindelwald opened (the date is a national holiday in Japan), and Grindelwald opened just 0.9% behind it in estimated admissions.

A comparable opening with the original film, or maybe even a slightly higher start, would be quite impressive given the lackluster reviews (audience scores in Japan are solid though), but the Harry Potter fanbase is truly one of dedication in the market (once it stabilized near the end of the series). A similar debut won't necessarily mean a similar total, though, as some of the middle Harry Potter films (3-5) managed to match/surpass the debuts of the first two films, yet earned much, much less, so time will tell where it may finish.

And I'll mention again that Johnny Depp in the starring villains' role is likely helping it a bit, although he didn't appear with the cast in Tokyo yesterday; surprising given his appearances are notable in the market. 

>Bohemian Rhapsody is quickly becoming a phenomenon at the rate it's going, as it looks to achieve another weekend increase. Its weekdays have been phenomenal as well, being up day-to-day each day. It's becoming increasingly likely that this biopic may be headed for a ¥5 billion+ ($45 million+) total, or more. 

And finally, almost anything could occupy the ninth and tenth spots this weekend. My selections are just based on pre-sales going into the weekend, but they're so low, that many other films could make an appearance.

[Olive]

FB2 huge drop from Day1, -44%. even though Friday was holiday, the drop is too big.

Bohemian Rhapsody +24% from last week at same point

[Brinatico]

1 hour ago, Olive said:

FB2 huge drop from Day1, -44%. even though Friday was holiday, the drop is too big.

Bohemian Rhapsody +24% from last week at same point

This was you 2 years ago.

Actuals for Fantastic Beasts opening week

Sat-Sun: 823.86M yen, 546k admissions, 1509 yen ATP

5-day:1724.32M yen, 1.19M admissions, 

 

Remember FB was 5 days opening 

Edited November 24, 2018 by Brinatico

[salvador-232]

Corpse: 

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald has done very, very well today. It began the weekend in pre-sales about 13% ahead of its predecessor, but kept building on that number as the day progressed and has come in almost 30% higher. 

The film also opened on 1,009 screens this weekend, making it only the third film to ever open on 1,000+ screens. It's the second highest screen count ever (but first in seating & showtimes), behind only The Amazing Spider-Man (1,092) and ahead of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (1,002).

It seems very likely now to debut higher than the first film, even if it would experience an abnormal Sunday decrease; and honestly... while it's still a long shot, it does have a slight chance of hitting ¥1 billion over the weekend frame. And I do mean a long shot -- it'd have to increase or remain flat on Sunday, at the very least, and match/exceed the original's average ticket price. Still, I feel confident in saying a ¥900 million+ opening weekend is looking good.

I'll have the Biggest Saturday Results list that I always post when a potential ¥1 billion+ opener debuts up a bit later when final numbers are in. I didn't really expect Grindelwald to come near this list, so it's a nice little surprise

[efialtes76]

12 hours ago, Olive said:

FB2 huge drop from Day1, -44%. even though Friday was holiday, the drop is too big.

Bohemian Rhapsody +24% from last week at same point

The drop is fine.

[catlover]

12 hours ago, Olive said:

FB2 huge drop from Day1, -44%. even though Friday was holiday, the drop is too big.

 

15 minutes ago, salvador-232 said:

Corpse: 

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald has done very, very well today. It began the weekend in pre-sales about 13% ahead of its predecessor, but kept building on that number as the day progressed and has come in almost 30% higher. 

Hmmm conflicting reports. So is it doing good or not?

 

Bohemian is becoming a phenomenon. Very understandable, since Queen is HUGE in Japan, and the movie itself is a crowd-pleaser that you wanna watch over and over again.

 

What I don't understand is how Venom's doing that good in Japan. Actually, that question is applicable for other countries too, including mine, and the US.

[salvador-232]

6 minutes ago, catlover said:

 

Hmmm conflicting reports. So is it doing good or not?

 

Bohemian is becoming a phenomenon. Very understandable, since Queen is HUGE in Japan, and the movie itself is a crowd-pleaser that you wanna watch over and over again.

 

What I don't understand is how Venom's doing that good in Japan. Actually, that question is applicable for other countries too, including mine, and the US.

Twelfth hours ago was 2pm on Japan, maybe it was falling 44% at that time (There's a site that track admissions every 20 minutes on two thirds of the market). In the end it ended falling 31% from Friday at the usual locations. 

 

 

[Olive]

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

854M 3-day,570K, +4% over FB1

1472M 3-day, 1.00M adm

Bohemian 395M, +2%, 2.336B total

[Tower]

(C)2018 Warner Bros. Ent. All Rights Reserved Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts Publishing Rights (C)J.K. Rowling

Weekend Actuals (11/24-25)
01 (---) ¥854,007,700 ($7.5 million), 0, ¥1,471,934,500 ($13.0 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (01) ¥395,021,800 ($3.5 million), +02%, ¥2,336,105,800 ($20.8 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK3
03 (03) ¥117,478,500 ($1.0 million), -23%, ¥1,425,590,900 ($12.6 million), Stolen Identity (Toho) WK4
04 (04) ¥100,681,100 ($890,000), -32%, ¥527,530,000 ($4.7 million), The House Where the Mermaid Sleeps (Shochiku) WK2
05 (02) ¥x99,993,400 ($883,000), -48%, ¥1,933,607,700 ($17.1 million), Venom (Sony) WK4
06 (05) ¥x69,082,800 ($610,000), -30%, ¥611,480,900 ($5.5 million), You, I Love (Asmik Ace) WK3
07 (06) ¥x61,530,600 ($543,000), -35%, ¥318,811,500 ($2.8 million), BTS - Burn the Stage: The Movie (Toho Video Division) WK2
08 (07) ¥x50,977,900 ($450,000), -35%, ¥1,042,597,000 ($9.3 million), Hugtto! Pretty Cure: All Stars Memories (Toei) WK5
09 (13) ¥x22,266,850 ($197,000), +12%, ¥1,049,344,000 ($9.3 million), Every Day, A Good Day (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK7
10 (11) ¥x12,775,500 ($113,000), -40%, ¥509,203,200 ($4.5 million), The Traveling Cat Chronicles (Shochiku) WK5

>Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald had a bit of a roller coaster performance compared to its predecessor on a day-to-day basis (first day on par, second day way up, third day slightly down) before ending up opening 3.8% higher than the original (and up 6.0% in admissions). The second film in the Fantastic Beasts franchise sold an impressive 579,381 admissions over the weekend frame across 1,009 screens (second highest count ever); and exceeded 1 million admissions in only three days, selling 1,000,793 admissions since opening on Friday.

Overall, this is a strong start for The Crimes of Grindelwald. I believe it'll be more frontloaded than its predecessor (which had surprisingly strong legs), so I'm not expecting it to finish above the original despite the higher debut. Still, it should finish between ¥6-7 billion (~$55-65 million). This is also Warner Bros.'s biggest opening weekend of the year in Japan, opening 61% higher than Gintama 2 and a whopping 132% higher than Ready Player One.

>Bohemian Rhapsody is on the path of becoming a phenomenon in the market, achieving yet another weekend increase. It's displaying incredible staying power early in its run, and I doubt it'll be slowing down for quite some time. I don't think it's a stretch to project a total above ¥5 billion ($45 million+) now, but that projection could certainly rise if it continues to remain flat/increase day-to-day, week-to-week, as it has since opening. 

>Venom took a hit in its third weekend, likely due to losing (or downsizing) some of its 3D/IMAX showings to Grindelwald, but will exceed the ¥2 billion milestone very soon. This may not seem like much, but it'll become only the fourth non-Spider-Man/Avengers Marvel/DC film to reach the milestone. (I know, I know, Venom is a character in Spider-Man, but the webslinger doesn't appear in the film, does he?).

>Every Day, A Good Day resurfaces in the Top 10 with a nice increase, and exceeded the ¥1 billion milestone. I don't remember the last film distributed by Tokyo Theaters, Co. to reach this mark, so this is a very notable success for them.

[The Gotham Bank]

Any word on Dragon Ball Super: Broly's early tracking compared to Resurrection F / Battle of Gods?

[Tower]

(C)2018 Warner Bros. Ent. All Rights Reserved Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts Publishing Rights (C)J.K. Rowling

Weekend Forecast (12/01-02)
01 (01) ¥631,000,000 ($5.6 million), -26%, ¥2,700,000,000 ($24.0 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK2
02 (02) ¥414,000,000 ($3.6 million), +05%, ¥3,185,000,000 ($28.2 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK4
03 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($1.9 million), The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney) NEW
04 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($880,000), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku) NEW
05 (03) ¥x88,000,000 ($775,000), -25%, ¥1,610,000,000 ($14.3 million), Stolen Identity (Toho) WK4
06 (04) ¥x81,000,000 ($715,000), -19%, ¥710,000,000 ($6.3 million), The House Where the Mermaid Sleeps (Shochiku) WK3
07 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($660,000), 0, ¥x85,000,000 ($750,000), Our Departures (Shochiku) NEW
08 (05) ¥x61,000,000 ($540,000), -39%, ¥2,055,000,000 ($18.2 million), Venom (Sony) WK5
09 (06) ¥x48,000,000 ($425,000), -30%, ¥690,000,000 ($6.1 million), You, I Love (Asmik Ace) WK4
10 (07) ¥x45,000,000 ($395,000), -25%, ¥420,000,000 ($3.7 million), BTS - Burn the Stage: The Movie (Toho Video Division) WK3

Note: Saturday (Dec. 1st) is a national discount ticket day, so weekend admissions will see a spike and result in slightly better holds/debuts than usual.

>Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald should hold well in its second weekend and continue to track about on par with the original film. We'll have to wait and see how it holds up next weekend to get a better idea of where this sequel is going, and I do expect it'll fall behind soon, but a total above ¥6 billion (~$55 million) is looking good right now.

>Bohemian Rhapsody may experience another weekend increase, it's third-consecutive weekend increase if it manages to do so. The strong reviews and stellar audience reception has kept this film roughly flat ever since it opened, and it could still be awhile before it finally begins to slow down. A gross over ¥5 billion ($45 million) is basically locked now, and it could end up around ¥5.5-6.0 billion ($50-55 million). It'll be a challenge, for sure, but its gross in Japan could end up matching or beating its gross in the U.K. 

>The Nutcracker and the Four Realms debuts this weekend, but Disney clearly had little faith in this one by giving it a mediocre theater count of 271, an abnormally low count for a high-profile Disney release (about 100 less). It didn't do much on Friday, probably missing ¥50 million (sub-$500,000), but it should recover a little over the weekend, but still won't make too much of an impact.

>Mobile Suit Gundam NT is a bit of a wild card. It had a strong Friday, and has great pre-sales today, but it's probably going to be quite frontloaded and probably see a significant Sunday decline. The last Gundam film opened with ¥94 million, so a similar debut seems reasonable.

>Venom will exceed the ¥2 billion milestone over the weekend, becoming only the fourth non-Spider-Man/Avengers Marvel/DC film and the eleventh overall Marvel/DC film to achieve this feat.

[catlover]

On 10/16/2018 at 6:53 PM, Tower said:

>One Cut of the Dead managed to stay in the Top 10 once again, celebrating its eleventh-consecutive weekend in the Top 10. Since reaching the Top 10 in its seventh-weekend of release, it has achieved a multiplier of 49.4. It has also now grossed 913 times its budget -- can it earn 1,000 times its budget? The numbers this half-hour indie zombie flick has achieved are stunning.

Finally saw this movie. It was just released here this weekend. One of the most creative and unique movies I've ever seen. And it's super hillarious! One of the best times at the movies this year.

 

But why did Corpse always say it's 30 minutes long? The one-shot scene does last for 30-something minutes, but the whole movie is 97 minutes long.

Edited December 1, 2018 by catlover

[Tower]

38 minutes ago, catlover said:

Finally saw this movie. It was just released here this weekend. One of the most creative and unique movies I've ever seen. And it's super hillarious! One of the best times at the movies this year.

 

But why did Corpse always say it's 30 minutes long? The one-shot scene does last for 30-something minutes, but the whole movie is 97 minutes long.

Yeah I corrected him after that, he thought the single shot was the whole thing:

Quote

 

I admit I never properly looked up its running-time. Every article discussing it, including the film's own synopsis, always mentions the impressive single 37-minute single cut, so I assumed that was its actual length. It is indeed 96-minutes, and begins with the much talked about 37-minute opening scene. My bad for incorrectly reporting this.

 

[Tower]

(C)2018 Warner Bros. Ent. All Rights Reserved Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts Publishing Rights (C)J.K. Rowling

Weekend Estimates (12/01-02)
01 (01) ¥752,000,000 ($6.6 million), -12%, ¥2,820,000,000 ($25.0 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK2
02 (02) ¥533,000,000 ($4.7 million), +35%, ¥3,305,000,000 ($29.3 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK4
03 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($1.9 million), The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney) NEW
04 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥170,000,000 ($1.5 million), Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku) NEW
05 (03) ¥x84,000,000 ($740,000), -28%, ¥1,605,000,000 ($14.2 million), Stolen Identity (Toho) WK4
06 (04) ¥x72,000,000 ($635,000), -28%, ¥700,000,000 ($6.2 million), The House Where the Mermaid Sleeps (Shochiku) WK3
07 (---) ¥x50,000,000 ($440,000), 0, ¥x60,000,000 ($530,000), Our Departures (Shochiku) NEW
08 (05) ¥x52,000,000 ($460,000), -48%, ¥2,045,000,000 ($18.1 million), Venom (Sony) WK5
09 (07) ¥x49,000,000 ($430,000), -19%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.8 million), BTS - Burn the Stage: The Movie (Toho Video Division) WK3
10 (06) ¥x46,000,000 ($405,000), -34%, ¥690,000,000 ($6.1 million), You, I Love (Asmik Ace) WK4

Note: Saturday (Dec. 1st) was a national discount ticket day, so weekend admissions experienced a spike, though this does lower the average ticket price for the weekend, which results in weekend grosses in percentages differing a lot from admissions. When a discount ticket day (1st of every month) falls on the weekend, revenue-to-admission percentage differ by about 10% (slightly higher for premium format films, slightly lower for senior and family skewing films)

>Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald held very well in its sophomore frame, actually matching/beating its opening weekend admissions (~+1%). It even makes my Biggest Second Weekends list by coming in above ¥700 million. This is, of course, due to Saturday being a discount ticket day, but it's pretty impressive regardless. The drop in gross will probably be higher than 10%, but I doubt it's more than 15%. It's still on track for at least ¥6 billion (~$55 million), but perhaps it can reach ¥7 billion ($60 million+) afterall. 

Its second weekend is higher than its predecessor's (likely 10-15% higher), and it's particularly notable since it's actually the biggest second weekend for a film in the overall Wizarding World film series since Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. Yeah, it received a boost in its second weekend, but that's a pretty incredible feat considering it opened noticeably lower than than Harry Potter's 1-5. 

>Bohemian Rhapsody... it's hard to find the correct words to describe it now, since it's easily surpassing what Les Miserables and The Greatest Showman did before it. It has increased every weekend since opening, and has either remained flat week-to-week or even increased. Its estimated fourth weekend is just a bit shy of the Top 20 all-time. I knew it would have a strong run in Japan, but it's already exceeded a multiplier of 9 after a mere four weeks in release... 

A ¥5 billion (~$45 million) total would have been an excellent finish following a near phenomenal run (that'd be a 14+ multiplier!), but I'm confident it's going to blow past that mark at this point. I think this may have the potential to reach/exceed ¥6 billion (~$55 million), and possibly even approach a total of ¥7 billion ($60 million+), or more. This is one of those rare films that just connects with Japanese moviegoers, and we'll have to enjoy the ride for several more weeks/months before projecting a possible finish. 

>The Nutcracker and the Four Realms debuts within expectations and will be hoping to hold well enough to reach the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone. 

>Mobile Suit Gundam NT did very well over the weekend, selling almost 40% of its available tickets. It certainly came in above the last Mobile Suit Gundam film.

[Olive]

2018 - Top Multipliers

↑15x+ (Phenomenal)
x13.13 - The Greatest Showman 
x11.44 - Incredibles 2
x10.80 - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura 
x10.65 - The 8-Year Engagement 
x10.11 - Sensei Kunshu 
x10.10 - Coco
↑10x+ (Excellent)
x9.67 - Shoplifters 
x9.62 - The Boss Baby
x8.58 - 50 First Kisses
x8.41 - Code Blue [16 Weeks in Release]
↑8x+ (Great)
x7.32 - Mission: Impossible - Fallout
x7.25 - Christopher Robin [9 Weeks in Release]
x7.17 - Murder on the Orient Express 
x7.05 - Mirai of the Future
x7.04 - Café Funiculi Funicula [8 Weeks in Release]
x7.02 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer
↑7x+ (Good)
x6.98 - Killing for the Prosecutors
x6.82 - Gintama 2
x6.80 - Ready Player One 
x6.74 - Chihayafuru: Conclusion
x6.70 - Ocean's 8 
x6.67 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi 
x6.62 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
x6.39 - Recall
x6.37 - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island 
x6.09 - Tonight, At The Movies
x6.01 - The Legend of the Demon Cat 
x6.00 - The Crimes That Bind 

[Olive]

Bohemian Rhapsody will challenge 20x multiplier

[The Gotham Bank]

That is just ridiculous for BR ...

[Legion Again]

So it will be the first 15x+ of the year huh? Doesn’t Japan give some really crazy multipliers sometimes? What are the top 5 of, say, the 2010s?