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[mfantin65]

Looking like an 11m midweek. MU made 5m and it was summer.MU dropped 15% second weekend. Frozen may hold 100+.30m by sunday then two weeks of spring break. Another 30m? Its gonna blow the doors off MU.

[mfantin65]

My predictions for forum reactions: Sunday March 16 (when Japan weekend #s come out):"Frozen is going to demolish Spirited Away!" Saturday March 22 (when early 2nd weekend projections come out):"FLOPZEN! It will be lucky to beat MU"

Nope.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Looking like an 11m midweek. MU made 5m and it was summer.MU dropped 15% second weekend. Frozen may hold 100+.30m by sunday then two weeks of spring break. Another 30m?Its gonna blow the doors off MU.

seems legit.

[Olive]

At one megaplex

Frozen has approx same presales on Saturday as last Saturday.

[Olive]

Japan Update" by 22:00 in Japan

 

TOHO , biggest chain

Sunday: 64,414

Today: 69,297

 

109

Sunday 14,850

Today 14,250

 

Doraemon dropped at both chains.

Edited March 21, 2014 by Olive

[mfantin65]

 

Japan Update" by 22:00 in Japan

 

TOHO , biggest chain

Sunday: 64,414

Today: 69,297

 

109

Sunday 14,850

Today 14,250

 

Doraemon dropped at both chains.

 

toho multiplier

69,297 x 65 = $4.5

11.5m mid week

[Incarnadine]

Looking like an 11m midweek. MU made 5m and it was summer.MU dropped 15% second weekend. Frozen may hold 100+.30m by sunday then two weeks of spring break. Another 30m?Its gonna blow the doors off MU.

Am I reading that right? Did Frozen more than double MU over the weekdays?

[mfantin65]

Am I reading that right? Did Frozen more than double MU over the weekdays?

according to BOM, yes

[iceroll]

Wow was there some holiday?  MU had summer weekdays didn't it?  

[mfantin65]

Wow was there some holiday?  MU had summer weekdays didn't it?

friday holiday bested sunday. Corpse reported 5.3m mon-wed. Maybe 1.7m Thursday since it beat Tuesday. Ladies came out big on ladies day Wed. Its skewing older than MU I assume like in SK.

[catlover]

Wow was there some holiday?  MU had summer weekdays didn't it?  

 

I think summer holiday didn't start until MU's 2nd Monday. BOM didn't have its 3rd weekend number but if I'm not mistaken, MU's 2nd week was bigger than its 1st week. Friday was a holiday for Frozen so that really helped too. But it's still impressive.

Edited March 21, 2014 by catlover

[Corpse]

Monsters University is an alright comparison, but there are some factors to take into account.

 

1. MU's first two sets of weekdays weren't during Summer vacation (Summer begins the third week of July or around the 20th and ends late August).  I won't be too surprised if Frozen keeps up with MU or even paces ahead of it for a couple weeks since MU skews a younger crowd.  For reference, MU was at 2.49 billion yen ($25.2 million) after 10 days (its holiday second Monday will make a solid 10-day comparison between the two films).

 

2. While the first Monsters film was incredibly popular in Japan, MU had to follow Cars 2's reception and wasn't a global smash with 2 Oscars wins under its belt,  and it also had to contest screens with Pokemon and Miyazaki.  Frozen is playing with some notable films, but it has the priority over screen allocation and should until mid-April.  All of these advantages and the buzz following its success everywhere else will (and is) making Frozen huge out of the gate, but a lot of big films see sharp drops post-extended holiday frames like the upcoming Spring Break.  The real test for Frozen on whether or not it'll beat MU or even achieve the 10 billion yen ($100 million) milestone will be hold it fares post-Spring Break.

 

For awhile it looked like MU was actually going to make a serious play at 10 billion yen ($100 million), but post-Summer/Obon Week it fell hard and ended up mussing 9 billion yen ($91 million).  

[Mojoguy]

I hope you starting posting Japan numbers again in this thread Corpse. We missed you.

[mfantin65]

Monsters University is an alright comparison, but there are some factors to take into account.

 

1. MU's first two sets of weekdays weren't during Summer vacation (Summer begins the third week of July or around the 20th and ends late August).  I won't be too surprised if Frozen keeps up with MU or even paces ahead of it for a couple weeks since MU skews a younger crowd.  For reference, MU was at 2.49 billion yen ($25.2 million) after 10 days (its holiday second Monday will make a solid 10-day comparison between the two films).

 

2. While the first Monsters film was incredibly popular in Japan, MU had to follow Cars 2's reception and wasn't a global smash with 2 Oscars wins under its belt,  and it also had to contest screens with Pokemon and Miyazaki.  Frozen is playing with some notable films, but it has the priority over screen allocation and should until mid-April.  All of these advantages and the buzz following its success everywhere else will (and is) making Frozen huge out of the gate, but a lot of big films see sharp drops post-extended holiday frames like the upcoming Spring Break.  The real test for Frozen on whether or not it'll beat MU or even achieve the 10 billion yen ($100 million) milestone will be hold it fares post-Spring Break.

 

For awhile it looked like MU was actually going to make a serious play at 10 billion yen ($100 million), but post-Summer/Obon Week it fell hard and ended up mussing 9 billion yen ($91 million).  

if you reduce 2m for holiday friday, you have to admit 9m is huge for a non summer week.

Better than TS3 first midweek, 7.5m, that wasn't quite summer yet and a stronger yen.

MU best summer midweek was 8.5m. TS3 11.5m

this week is 11m w one day holiday bump. does it do 13m next week? . We'll see.

My point is if it can have this kind of week before spring break,  who is to say that it will drop hard after it.

Edited March 22, 2014 by mfantin65

[LABAS]

Today is a discount day for a couple (2 for 2000 Yen) in 109 cinema chain (the second biggest ).

Maybe we can see some boost today.

[Corpse]

109 isn't the second biggest chain, far from it actually. :wink:

 

Aeon is the biggest now after acquiring Warner Mycal last year (~25%).

Toho is now the second biggest, but not too far behind Aeon (~20%).

 

Then it goes Movix Cinemas and United Cinemas, though I believe each of them represent less than 10% of the nation's screens.

[LABAS]

109 isn't the second biggest chain, far from it actually. :wink:

 

Aeon is the biggest now after acquiring Warner Mycal last year (~25%).

Toho is now the second biggest, but not too far behind Aeon (~20%).

 

Then it goes Movix Cinemas and United Cinemas, though I believe each of them represent less than 10% of the nation's screens.

Thanks for correction. So, why does not Aeon provide any daily statistics like admission ?

[Corpse]

Only a few chains do that, and unfortunately Aeon, Movix, and United don't.  It is possible to track Movix's admissions, though, but we haven't done so in awhile and just observe specific areas and how we'll a film (or films) is doing there.

 

Aeon does list their top 5 films over the weekend on their main site every Monday morning, though.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast [03/22-23]01 (01) ¥670 million ($6.6 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 202 (02) ¥285 million ($2.8 million), Doraemon: New Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 303 (--) ¥260 million ($2.5 million), God's Medical Records 2 (Toho) NEW04 (--) ¥150 million ($1.4 million), The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) NEW05 (03) ¥110 million ($1.0 million), Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) Week 206 (--) ¥80 million ($780,000), Lone Survivor (Toho-Towa) NEW07 (--) ¥70 million ($680,000), Saving Mr. Banks (Disney) NEW08 (04) ¥65 million ($630,000), RoboCop (Sony) Week 209 (05) ¥60 million ($580,000), The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.) Week 410 (06) ¥50 million ($480,000), The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Toho) Week 6>Frozen should remain in 1st until mid-April, and be prepared for incredible figures until at least then, too.It was really, really strong over its first set of weekdays, exceeding ¥1.5 billion ($15 million) on Wednesday; and after yesterday (Vernal Equinox Day), it's either just shy or already exceeded ¥2 billion ($20 million) heading into its second weekend. Expect to see a 10-day total over ¥2.5 billion ($25 million) after Sunday.The Japanese cover of "Let It Go" has also become a huge hit, possibly explaining why the dubbed version of the film is crushing the subtitled (~80/20 split).>God's Medical Records 2 opened yesterday (Vernal Equinox Day), and the numbers I saw were good, but below expectations. And this mornings/afternoons ticket sales aren't impressive, either. Doraemon will likely beat it over the weekend (which despite Frozen, is still performing very well), so it'll have to settle for 3rd place.>The Secret Life of Walter Mitty opened earlier on Wednesday earlier this week. Why? I don't know... Wednesday releases are usually reserved for Obon or New Year, and even then they're rare. But it has been doing alright and may end up a decent earner for Fox.>The Eternal Zero will fall out of the Top 10 this weekend (unless it pulls off some increase) after spending 13-consecutive week there. It may exceed ¥8.5 billion ($83 million) on Sunday, too, drawing closer to 7 million admissions, and becoming the most-successful original domestic live-action film since the 1980s.It will be the film Frozen will have to beat to win the 2014 crown, unless this Summer's Memories of Marnie, from Studio Ghibli and director Hiromasa Yonebayashi (Miyazaki's chosen successor), can repeat the success of his directorial debut - Arrietty. Then we'd have one interesting 3-way contest.

[Mojoguy]

Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast [03/22-23]01 (01) ¥670 million ($6.6 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 202 (02) ¥285 million ($2.8 million), Doraemon: New Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 303 (--) ¥260 million ($2.5 million), God's Medical Records 2 (Toho) NEW04 (--) ¥150 million ($1.4 million), The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) NEW05 (03) ¥110 million ($1.0 million), Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) Week 206 (--) ¥80 million ($780,000), Lone Survivor (Toho-Towa) NEW07 (--) ¥70 million ($680,000), Saving Mr. Banks (Disney) NEW08 (04) ¥65 million ($630,000), RoboCop (Sony) Week 209 (05) ¥60 million ($580,000), The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.) Week 410 (06) ¥50 million ($480,000), The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Toho) Week 6

Isn't the LEGO movie opening this weekend in Japan? So it won't be appearing on the Top 10?