doublejack Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I don't think the studio felt liek that at all.Guys, you have one day for it's gross and already you're declaring it a bad movie and a bad gross? That's kind of pathetic. If this opens to 25 mill for the 5 day and goes on to make 150 mill WW, is that bad? Give it some time.I'm not making statements in a vacuum, though. Let's look at some facts:The film scored a C cinemascoreThe RT rating has dropped like a rock. It was at 76% on the 14th. It was at 64% this morning. It's at 63% as I write this.The metacritic rating is 60. That is pretty similar to other comedies such as DS (55) and Three Stooges (56). Not good company. Bruno scored a 54, while Borat had a much better 89.So yes, I'm calling this movie bad and I feel I have ample backup for that, even though I haven't seen it myself. This doesn't mean that the movie won't have some fans. I'm also sure I'll see it eventually, just not in a theater.As far as the numbers, if it opens to 25M (a big "if") and does 150M WW in total, that is bad. Absolutely. Borat did nearly that much domesically, and the much maligned Bruno had similar numbers to what you suggested. I very much doubt SBC will continue doing movies if they keep flopping, as Dictator is poised to do.I mean in the sense of most films opening on Fridays and you see the adverts for it and think 'i quite fancy seeing that' but you don't notice the Wednesday launch . I always get the sense that huge blockbusters are best for weekday launches anyway as there is huge demand to see them, i don't think there would be huge demand to rush out after work and see this on Wrdnesday, i'm sure most people will be waiting for the weekend.Also i know its a different situation completely but remember Shrek 2?, i remember people worrying about that being a major flop because of its poor weekday launch.OK, I get what you mean. I still haven't read a viable alternative to the theory I suggested, though. Why would the studio release Dictator on a Wednesday? Either they felt it would flop, or ?????And TF3. People like to jump the gun.TF3 was a bad movie. :ph34r:It did phenominal at the box office, so it was a success. Still a bad movie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 What are you guys predicting for Thursday? Slight drop?I have $6.06 million before a 200% increase Friday.Slight drop to staying flat. 2% to 4% drop than 170%+ increase on Friday leading to a 60M+ weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seduh Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 i hope Avengers to increase a little today and get a +175% increase on friday, $60 third weekend may not happen, $55 is more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 If a film like Dictator make's its money back, why would it be bad? SBC has never been proven to be a draw. Borat is his most liked character and it made money. Bruno, not so much, and it made less. I think your persepctive is skewed. What do you think the studio is expecting from Dictator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Slight drop to staying flat. 2% to 4% drop than 170%+ increase on Friday leading to a 60M+ weekend.Forgive me if you've posted this before but with a 170% increase, what are you predicting for Saturday? 50%?Here's my optimistic breakdown.18.11 (~200%)27.52 (52%)17.62 (-36%)63.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 i hope Avengers to increase a little today and get a +175% increase on friday, $60 third weekend may not happen, $55 is more likelyIf TA increases on Thursday and than gets 175% bump on Friday than 60M is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Forgive me if you've posted this before but with a 170% increase, what are you predicting for Saturday? 50%?Here's my optimistic breakdown.18.11 (~200%)27.52 (52%)17.62 (-36%)63.25Friday increase seems high and Sunday drop is also high. Sunday holds for TA have been strong because family aspect. Monday is a holiday in Canada so Sunday hold will be strong. I used 27% but it could be lower.17.05M (+175%)26.43M (+55%)19.29M (-27%)62.77M (39% drop) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Thanks Druv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doublejack Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 If a film like Dictator make's its money back, why would it be bad? SBC has never been proven to be a draw. Borat is his most liked character and it made money. Bruno, not so much, and it made less. I think your persepctive is skewed. What do you think the studio is expecting from Dictator?Studios don't make films hoping to make their money back. If they feel that's the best a concept can do, then it doesn't get done.I believe the studio is expecting Borat type of success out of Dictator. SBC proved, the one time, that he could be a big draw. Bruno was a miss. If Dictator is another miss (a good bet), SBC is going to find it more and more difficult to pitch his ideas.Why risk 65M hoping to just get your money back? It doesn't work that way. If there's no profit, the risk isn't worth the possible reward. That's just the reality of how studios work. They're always hoping for huge hits, which is why they give tired franchises like MIB another look, long past the point common sense calls for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sims Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 TBEMH continues to do awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 TA won't have 175% Friday increase. 150% max because3 nationwide releases will slow it down a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acab Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I don't think anyone expected The Dictator to have a Borat type of success. I think they were looking for something between Borat and Bruno. And i'm not convinced yet that it won't do it. It still has Memorial weekend and i think it can reach 60m. Not a huge hit or anything but far from a flop or a failure. But we should probably wait for weekend numbers to be more accurate.The Avengers still go strong. I believe a 58m weekend could happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Studios don't make films hoping to make their money back. If they feel that's the best a concept can do, then it doesn't get done.I believe the studio is expecting Borat type of success out of Dictator. SBC proved, the one time, that he could be a big draw. Bruno was a miss. If Dictator is another miss (a good bet), SBC is going to find it more and more difficult to pitch his ideas.Why risk 65M hoping to just get your money back? It doesn't work that way. If there's no profit, the risk isn't worth the possible reward. That's just the reality of how studios work. They're always hoping for huge hits, which is why they give tired franchises like MIB another look, long past the point common sense calls for it.Yes, they do hope to just make their money back. Can you tell me how many films make a profit at the theater? Look into it and you'll actually see that not many do. If you really take the 2-1 ratio, then every film has to double their budget to make it back. Not many films do that domestically, they need the international markets to do so. And beyond that, there are so many other revenue streams after it leaves theaters.There's no chance the studio was expecting Borat numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Why can't people like Batman and Avengers? All I want personally is some good entertainment from a summer blockbuster.Believe it or not most people do. The internet tends to skew things a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
code65536 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 Marvel's The Avengers BV $6,339,757 -25% -53% 4,349 $1,458 $395,813,047 13 2 - The Dictator Par. $4,175,274 - - 3,003 $1,390 $4,175,274 1 3 2 Dark Shadows WB $1,841,116 -30% - 3,755 $490 $36,449,053 6 4 3 Think Like a Man SGem $380,482 -26% -32% 2,052 $185 $82,810,061 27 5 4 The Hunger Games LGF $376,509 -19% -18% 2,531 $149 $388,246,795 55 6 7 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel FoxS $321,998 -7% +273% 178 $1,809 $4,693,068 13 7 6 The Lucky One WB $311,464 -28% -32% 2,839 $110 $54,847,007 27 8 5 The Five-Year Engagement Uni. $285,480 -38% -46% 2,196 $130 $25,718,135 20 9 8 The Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony $205,009 -19% -32% 3,079 $67 $23,702,952 20 10 10 Chimpanzee BV $136,187 -25% -33% 1,400 $97 $26,179,160 27 11 11 The Raven Rela. $125,848 -27% -56% 1,888 $67 $15,181,722 20 12 9 Safe (2012) LGF $107,369 -49% -61% 1,690 $64 $16,197,183 20 13 12 The Cabin in the Woods LGF $84,206 -35% -55% 1,029 $82 $40,086,468 34 14 13 Girl in Progress LGF $62,300 -27% - 322 $193 $1,623,855 6 15 15 The Three Stooges Fox $53,417 -24% -46% 1,027 $52 $41,339,177 34 Kinda amazing that THG almost beat TLAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 (edited) THG is such a beast, always has one of the day's best holds :wub:And still top 5 after 55 days! Edited May 17, 2012 by rockNrollaDIM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 THG is such a beast, always has one of the day's best holds :wub:And still top 5 after 55 days!Can't wait to see it's beastly hold this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 The Hunger Games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 The Hunger Games has had a sexy run. Like, Christina Hendricks sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 THG is such a beast, always has one of the day's best holds :wub:And still top 5 after 55 days!I always thought you were against THG, hense your 'stupid numbers' sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
