code65536 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 After THG's 35% drop over the weekend, dropping only 11% from last Monday is... remarkable. Is that fudge that I smell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doublejack Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 (edited) the second weekend drop without the midnight is 45%, in the third weekend that number increased, not slow down like shouldSM3: the most hated superhero movie, right behind B&RDH2: frontload movie, isn't a valid comparisionHow many people had to view TA in 3D on OW that didn't want to, simply because all the 2D shows were sold out? How many second weekend? Third weekend? As the overall demand diminished and 2D seats became more available, that would work to accelerate the drop even more than would have been the case otherwise. So you can't just factor out midnights and claim it acted abnormally. TA's whole run is uncharted territory.Then there is the kid factor. I have a very strong suspicion that TA's crowd skewed younger after the first week to 10 days.Despite those factors it still managed a 46% drop third weekend. I don't see how your gloom-and-doom prediction for the holiday weekend can materialize. Edited May 22, 2012 by doublejack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Actuals:1 Marvel's The Avengers $5,687,934 -66% 4,249 -100 $1,339 $463,353,451 3 DisneyWent up. That total after 18 days just astounds me. It has now passed SM3's multiplier and nearly made on its 18th day what SM3 made on its 7th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Yep, good stat AA.....it really is a remarkable run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 It'll pass IM2's multiplier by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doublejack Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 It'll pass IM2's multiplier by Sunday.Precisely why comparisons with IM2 are not applicable. I'm not sure why people insist upon going there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 (edited) NOT A RECORD Edited May 22, 2012 by The Futurist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Well one thing to remember...TA still is the number 1 film so it is still on many screens...Even with MIB the release is nowhere near as wide as lets say Pirates 3.So it won't kill the film.Further the film has done well on Sat and Sunday and now it has a weekend with pretty much 2 Saturdays and a Sunday.So really, I think TA should not drop over 25%.MIb3 looks to be looking for 80 million at most for the 4-day which is good but not overwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Not that anyone's paying attention, but that's a really nice number for Dictator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Likley will hold well for the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kesleyk Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Ok, good find...now let's break it down:OST fall 55% against Hangover 2: Second weekend, not a third. And in NA the film wasn't liked all that much.Robin Hood fall 44%: Good one...i won't try to justify thisSM3 fall 50% against AWE: Spiderman 3 is one of the most hated blockbusters of all time the wom killed this.Troy fall 50%: Good findMatrix Reloaded was in its second weekend and it too disappointed.I will say this, I didn't even think you would find this many. so I guess the possibility remains. I just don't think The Avengers is anywhere close to being as poorly received as every film on your list.Since my guesses weren't completely blown out of the water last week (about 2% under wed-sun) I will give it another go.Tue - 4.0mWed - 2.9mThur - 3.1mwe (3 day) - 30m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Should be around 515 million by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Not that anyone's paying attention, but that's a really nice number for Dictator.I said that a page back. It's a great hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I underestimated the Canadian holiday bump. Yay for TA. I see it holding steady for Tuesday. It would have increased if not for the abnormal Monday holiday bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Since my guesses weren't completely blown out of the water last week (about 2% under wed-sun) I will give it another go.Tue - 4.0mWed - 2.9mThur - 3.1mwe (3 day) - 30mWhy would it fall 28 and 27% on tues/wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Why the tues drop? Since my guesses weren't completely blown out of the water last week (about 2% under wed-sun) I will give it another go.Tue - 4.0mWed - 2.9mThur - 3.1mwe (3 day) - 30m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 It'll drop for sure Tues lilmac as yesterday the numbers were inflated due to the holiday. But I'm not sure what film he's modeling it after in order for it to drop 28 and 27%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 (edited) Thanks for teaching me about the Tuesday discount (and resulting increase) but i am hoping Canadians decided to take an extra day off! Edited May 22, 2012 by lilmac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Baumer Forgive me if you've said this elsewhere but do you still see $620m+ for TA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Baumer Forgive me if you've said this elsewhere but do you still see $620m+ for TA?I do. The reason is that right now it's dropping like a film that just had two record weekends. It's normal. This weekend coming will be a softer drop and then a market correction the weekend after (so perhaps a 35-38% drop this weekend and a 50% drop first weekend of June). But then, just like THG, I believe it will start having softer drops and a nice run at the twilight of its run. So yes I think 620 is possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
