4 day Actuals pg 62+; MIB3 69.25m TA 47.22m

[Shawn Robbins]

Shawn whats your range for TA final gross.It could miss 600 million however I think its locked for 590 now.If it falls sub 50% next weekend then 600+ is on.

I haven't updated my projections recently, but I'd say $585m is the absolute floor. And that requires a sustained big drop-off after the holiday, which I don't see happening. Its definitely hitting $600m, IMHO.

MIB did just fine and in line with all other big hits of Smith like Hancock and I Am LegendIts the insane budget and ridiculous percentage deal for Smith that's going to keep this thing from turning profit till DVDWhen was the last time Smith movie managed to do over 700 mil WW ( that wasn't called Independence Day )

When was the last time a Smith movie opened in 3D and IMAX?If any of his big summer movies opened today with those price advantages, they'd easily be doing $700m-1b or more. MIB3's global ticket sales are definitely underwhelming so far when compared to his previous hits. Its not just the budget holding this back unfortunately. Edited May 27, 2012 by ShawnMR

[John Marston]

MIB3 opening isn't that considering it is opening in the wake of the Avengers and the underwhelming trailers. I think people should wait a while before writing it off.

[Jake Gittes]

BOM needs to correct that THG weekend number quick. It's $750k off

[lilmac]

On Saturday, THE AVENGERS became the fastest film to reach $500M--23 days. Previous record was AVATAR in 32 days.

That record may last longer than $200m OW. We may see humongous openers in the next several years but a movie with a big opening AND sexy legs? Amazing!

[CJohn]

Sony won't be happy with a number under 600M WW.

[lilmac]

I haven't updated my projections recently, but I'd say $585m is the absolute floor. And that requires a sustained big drop-off after the holiday, which I don't see happening. Its definitely hitting $600m, IMHO.When was the last time a Smith movie opened in 3D and IMAX?If any of his big summer movies opened today with those price advantages, they'd easily be doing $700m-1b or more. MIB3's global ticket sales are definitely underwhelming so far when compared to his previous hits. Its not just the budget holding this back unfortunately.

Why would the budget hold it back anyway? It's the quality of the script and story if anything.

[John Marston]

I haven't updated my projections recently, but I'd say $585m is the absolute floor. And that requires a sustained big drop-off after the holiday, which I don't see happening. Its definitely hitting $600m, IMHO.When was the last time a Smith movie opened in 3D and IMAX?If any of his big summer movies opened today with those price advantages, they'd easily be doing $700m-1b or more. MIB3's global ticket sales are definitely underwhelming so far when compared to his previous hits. Its not just the budget holding this back unfortunately.

The trailers for MIB3 were underwhelming and it opened in the wake of the Avengers. I think people should wait a bit before assuming MIB3 is down for the count

[Gideon]

That record may last longer than $200m OW. We may see humongous openers in the next several years but a movie with a big opening AND sexy legs? Amazing!

I think this too.

"Lightning in the bottle" illustrates the situation, right?

Like TDKR, Avatar...

[baumer]

The trailers for MIB3 were underwhelming and it opened in the wake of the Avengers. I think people should wait a bit before assuming MIB3 is down for the count

But even an optimistic 3X gives it about 170 mill. Not that great.

[CJohn]

They spent 250M making MIB3. It makes no sense, no matter how you look at it.

[superduperm]

Is $650M domestically for TA a fantasy at this point?

[lilmac]

Shawn whats your range for TA final gross.It could miss 600 million however I think its locked for 590 now.If it falls sub 50% next weekend then 600+ is on.

I hope my $590 million prediction is way low. The weekend will be huge. Just say TA has a sub-50% drop (going up against SWATH, and MIB3 2nd weekend), could fierce competition from Prometheus the following weekend "make up" for the low drop and put $600m in jeopardy? Edited May 27, 2012 by lilmac

[CJohn]

Wes Anderson's MOONRISE KINGDOM ruled the land of per-theatre-averages w/ $127,218 per--$508,870 in 4 theatres!!!

[CJohn]

Millennium's BERNIE cracked the Top 12 with $870K. The Richard Linklater/Jack Black dramedy has now earned $2.2M.

[Jake Gittes]

Bernie is doing unexpectedly well. Could approach $10m if it doesn't lose the momentum.That PTA for Moonrise is $902 ahead of Dreamgirls... hopefully it maintains the edge. It will be interesting to see how it expands, it has a much better start out of the gate and is supposedly more crowd-pleasing than Life Aquatic, Darjeeling and FMF, so expecting $25m might not be unreasonable. I would really love it if it clicked with mainstream audiences like Royal Tenenbaums did.

[superduperm]

Shawn whats your range for TA final gross.It could miss 600 million however I think its locked for 590 now.If it falls sub 50% next weekend then 600+ is on.

If TA reaches 590, Disney will use as many double-feature drivethroughs and buy out as much of Puerto Rico as they can just so they can enjoy some nice fudge at the thought of TA reaching 600.

[JonnyCraig]

MiB3 really didn't do terrible since it's a follow up from a very disappointing sequel which came out a decade ago. It's the studio's fault for going with the extreme budget craze and not preventing Smith from getting out of line (he is notorious for being difficult to work with but Sony didn't control it and it messed with the budget and the production, in addition to his ridiculous percentage deal despite him being inactive for 4 years and Seven Pounds having a disappointing run.) Still, it has solid word of mouth and the fact it got away with a 70m 4 day with Avengers still being direct competition shows it has some juice...an 85m 4 day was a chance before people realized how big Avengers could be. It does not have much direct competition for a few weeks (Avengers is not going to have Avatar's supernatural legs from this point out and the gap between it and TDK will start narrowing, Prometheus is R and targets older audiences, SNW&H appeals more to women, summer weekdays will soon start kicking in, etc) and MiB2 was maligned and crawled to close to 200m.It has a fine chance of crossing 200 DOM and 300+ OS with what looks like much better than expected WOM, not bad for a sequel nobody really expected or wanted. The studios just mismanaged it and had too high expectations.Avengers will cross 600 in the next month or two, TDKR and over saturation of the market from other flicks will make 650 a small chance.

Edited May 27, 2012 by JonnyCraig

[Gopher]

Moonrise Kingdom is the story of the weekend. 127k PTA is kind of jaw-dropping.

[Elessar]

I hope my $590 million prediction is way low. The weekend will be huge. Just say TA has a sub-50% drop (going up against SWATH, and MIB3 2nd weekend), could fierce competition from Prometheus the following weekend "make up" for the low drop and put $600m in jeopardy?

It'll pretty much lose all 3D screens when Prometheus and Madagascar 3 hit.

[Jay Beezy]

I haven't updated my projections recently, but I'd say $585m is the absolute floor. And that requires a sustained big drop-off after the holiday, which I don't see happening. Its definitely hitting $600m, IMHO.

What about achieving a 3x multiplier gross of 622,316,124? Curiously, the last Marvel movie to achieve that multiplier was Iron Man 1 in 2008. And the last comic book movie overall to do that was The Dark Knight, also 2008.