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baumer

Weekend Estimates pg 60 Mad3 60.3 Prom 50.0

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We'll get those Prometheus sequels the same day we get those Robin Hood sequels. I.e, never.The worst part is that studios are going to blame the R rating and we're not going to get another R-rated summer tentpole again.

The difference is that Robin Hood cost 200M; Prometheus cost 130M from what I read recently; and even less from what I have read today. In any event, if they make similar WW totals, a realistic projection, one made money and the other lost money, so one has a much better chance of a sequel than the other, and I say that as one who would infinitely prefer the sequel for the one that it getting left out in the cold. :(
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MovieMan, I just saw that Fast Five didn't just have a 60% drop; it had a 62% drop.It wasn't a horror movie.It didn't have anything near a 130M opening.And it most certainly didn't have toxic WOM.Explanation?

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Think of it this way- Prometheus dropped -9.8% from Friday without counting midnights. Watchmen dropped -7.6% from Friday without midnights counted.It's in trouble.

Think of it this way- Prometheus dropped -9.8% from Friday without counting midnights. Watchmen dropped -7.6% from Friday without midnights counted.It's in trouble.

Again, March vs. June, Watchmen's drop was much more troubling.
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It's also disheartening to see the only overperformer of the entire summer have so many detractors here. Ugh.

There have been a few overperformers this summers. Obviously, the Avengers, despite high expectations, still overperformed. SWatH overperformed. Madasgascar did. Even some of the limited, Best Exotic Marigold, and Moonrise Kingdom can be said to have overperformed.
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It's also disheartening to see the only overperformer of the entire summer have so many detractors here. Ugh.

I guess nobody likes that when it's not their favorite movie. :(
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Let's be honest here: The HANGOVER 2 sucked.. No 2 ways about it.. It was the same thing all over again with a different location.. How on earth are they going to make the HANGOVER 3 not a rehash of the other 2???? Sometimes, some things are better left well enough alone..

Regardless it is still a massive cash cow.
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MovieMan, I just saw that Fast Five didn't just have a 60% drop; it had a 62% drop.It wasn't a horror movie.It didn't have anything near a 130M opening.And it most certainly didn't have toxic WOM.Explanation?

It's a sequel and Thor opened which targeted the same audience.
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If Prometheus and Madagascar's numbers were reversed, we wouldn't be seeing the same gnashing of teeth here. The reality is Madagascar is a much more enjoyable and crowd-pleasing film and people want enjoyment and pleasure in their movies, so that's the film that's doing well.

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It's a sequel and Thor opened which targeted the same audience.

Ah! So there are other reasons why a movie might have a 60% drop, other than being horror, a 130M+ opener, or having toxic WOM.

In fact, there are many factors that play into this.

In the case of SWatH, if either Promestheus or Mad had opened on June 1 (doesn't really matter which one) and the other remained opening on June 8, then SWatH would have had much less of an OW, probably somewhere in the 40's, but it would have had a drop less than 50% in all probability.

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Again, March vs. June, Watchmen's drop was much more troubling.

Much more troubling? I'm disagreeing with you there. We'll see what happens this week but I think it's not breaking Robin Hood's admissions and that's a little depressing.

Good news for Prometheus is that besides the few locations getting Rock of Ages next weekend it has IMAX to itself until Spider-Man. But that's the only good news.

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