South Korea Box Office

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, pepsa said:

$7.5 average ticket price or something around that I would guess. 

So that means $92.5m - $100m

So possibly less than AIW did in $s last year with maybe 2m more admissions.

 

[pepsa]

Huge PS's for tomorrow !

 

268k For wednesday

Last Friday had 299k and Thursday had 224k. 810k looking likely (with CGV at 50%) but because it's a big number we would expect the CGV % to go down.

[Rebeccas]

Kinda wild that South Korea for once is just an average performer for an MCU movie lol

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

Kinda wild that South Korea for once is just an average performer for an MCU movie lol

Hard to outdo yourself when MCU is already in your top 10 and you're already rabid for them!

[Stewart]

CAUTION: This post did not go as planned. Be prepared for accentuated humour and the brain of (what sounds like) a total Lunatic. I apologise in advance. I promise there's some useful information in there!

 

----

 

Time for another Graph update! If you want to see them in person, you can visit the magical spreadsheet by me and Pep: Here!

 

So, first of all an update on the usual linear graph. As you can see below, yesterday and today are the two blue dots completely out of fashion. They decided to play their own game and keep to themselves. This means that the R² value is now down to a paltry 0.738. Pathetic.  

 

However, I then thought, perhaps Endgame is making its own rules? Perhaps it wants to follow a different trendline, one that's not so linear. And so the Endgame graph below was born! 

 

Now we're talking! A fancy pantsy graph that has a fantastic R² value again. This makes it appear as if the 53% from yesterday was actually planned all along! However, it should be noted that this may not be terribly accurate due to the law of small data sets. With such a small sample, it's hard to draw reliable conclusions. Doesn't mean we stop doing so though! 

 

Now, onto Labor Day tomorrow. As Pep said we have 268k presales for tomorrow at CGV, and over 1m overall total presales at the moment. Using a combination of Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday, we've come up with the following projection for how tomorrow hopefully plays out. Bare in mind, before we did this and before presales came in, we were expecting a realistic 62% increase. Little did we know that our projection would actually agree with this! We have used a CGV % of 47.5%, this actually agrees with both graphs, thus it must be correct! (*it might not be*)

 

Below you can see the run rate for the day.

Wednesday, 1 May
Time	Adm.
Presales	268,000
09:20	283,000
10:20	289,000
11:20	296,000
12:20	304,000
13:20	313,000
14:20	322,000
15:20	331,000
16:20	340,000
17:20	354,000
18:20	370,000
19:20	386,000
20:20	400,000
21:20	409,000
22:20	416,000
23:20	421,000
Actual:	886,316
	+62.5%

 

---

 

So, we have new graphs, a run projection for tomorrow and a reasonable CGV %. What's left? For KOBIS to screw us over with a 700k day. Genuinely if it comes that low I will be disappointed. It should at least match IW's Labor Day of 717k. Our prediction leads to a range of 800-950k. I would love for it to be over 1m, but sadly I just don't think it'll happen. 

 

---

 

Last sidenote, everyone throw some big love at @pepsa for keeping the people updated with our predictions and such while I've been busy irl the past couple days.

 

---

 

Okay, not the last sidenote, I just thought of more to say (I know right? Crazy.). Just to get a point across about how irregular yesterday was, there's a particular hour which CGV always seems to be in the same vain on numbers. This hour is 4:20 (haha, what are the chances! ), as you can see in the comparison below, it always lies between 39-40%, but Monday decided it wanted to be weird. 

 

Literally, let's look at that another way just to see how CRAZY Monday wanted to be:

Look at that, bonkers right? 

 

Anyway, basically Monday was a good number, but threw our comps all over the place. Safe to assume it was just a bad day. Bad Monday. Just erase Monday 29th April from history, it doesn't deserve to exist anymore. 

 

Thanks for listening, I've missed you guys and I'm happy to be back 

[troyand]

I am deeply moved by your MARVELous analysis.

[Legion Again]

“Sir, the graph is starting to look bad! What should we do?”   

 

“Just throw another degree of freedom at it.”     

 

Spoiler

I kid, I kid. Some non-linearity is expected between the truly huge admit days and the more medium admit # days.

 

[pepsa]

It has had good walk ups so far! 

With good I mean we thought 331k by 3.20pm it got to 369k by 3.20pm.

 

Today is looking at 900k bottom line (Using CGV of 50%), I do expect the CGV ratio to go down to something more like 47%-48%.

That would give us something like 939k - 959k. Now yesterday sold a lot of ps's so the walk ups might come in lower than we think.

 

50% CGV ratio range: 886k - 920k

47.5% CGV ratio (same as Thursday) range : 930k - 960k

 

So most thing point to over 900k at this point unless walk ups are very bad or CGV goes over 50% again.

Edited May 1, 2019 by pepsa

[cdsacken]

Any idea for target range of final total? Local currency is fine.

 

Looks like won has dropped approximately 7.5% give or take since last year vs. the $.

[pepsa]

13 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Any idea for target range of final total? Local currency is fine.

 

Looks like won has dropped approximately 7.5% give or take since last year vs. the $.

Yeah ticket average ticket prices is down big time from last year. (Sat and sunday where down $0.95 and $1.05 from IW last yeah, thats pretty big 11%-12%.

Well we have to see how the weekend plays but it should be huge again. We are thinking 11.1m admission after this weekend (btw daily average tick price fluctuates a lot) Monday was $7.44 and Tuesday was $7.4. So guessing $82m by Sunday the weekend after that it will have competition so we will have to see how it holds. I would guess around 14m admission useing 7.4 per ticket it would get us $103.6m. 

[cdsacken]

Nice

[Stewart]

6 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

“Sir, the graph is starting to look bad! What should we do?”   

 

“Just throw another degree of freedom at it.”     

 

  Reveal hidden contents

I kid, I kid. Some non-linearity is expected between the truly huge admit days and the more medium admit # days.

 

thanks for making me spill my breakfast Thanos

[Fish&chips]

Fastest to 8 million admissions (Number of days)

#Restricted to 10M admission films

 

-8 days-

Avengers: Endgame (2019)
 

-9 days-

Along with the gods: The last 49 days (2018)

 

-10 days-

Roaring Currents (2014)

 

-12 days-

Avengers: Infinity War (2018)

Along with the gods: The Two worlds (2017)

Train to Busan (2016)

 

-13 days-

Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)

A Taxi Driver (2017)

Extreme Job (2019)

 

-16 days-

The Thieves (2012)

The Host (2006)

 

-17 days-

Assassination (2015)

 

-18 days-

Veteran (2015)

 

-19 days-

Ode to my Father (2014)

 

-25 days-

Interstellar (2014)

Avatar (2009)

Masquerade (2012)

Miracle in cell no.7 (2013)

 

-26 days-

Frozen (2014)

[pepsa]

Walk ups in the evening are extremely slow today  

[Fish&chips]

Top 20 highest grossing films (USD: Official Record)
01. $131.56M Roaring currents (2014)

02. $122.91M Extreme Job (2019)
03. $107.19M Along with the gods: The Two Worlds (2017)
04. $105.49M Avatar (2009)
05. $100.66M Ode to my Father (2014)
06.   $92.84M veteran (2015)

07.   $90.77M Along with the gods: The last 49 days (2019)

08.   $88.51M Avengers: Infinity War (2018)
09.   $86.92M Assassination (2015)
10.   $84.45M A Taxi Driver (2017)
11.   $82.67M The Thieves (2012)
12.   $81.88M Miracle in cell no.7 (2013)
13.   $81.83M Masquerade (2012)
14.   $81.25M Train to Busan (2016)
15.   $78.29M Avengers: age of Ultron (2015)
16.   $77.80M The Attorney (2013)
17.   $76.83M Frozen (2014)

18.   $74.19M Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
19.   $74.09M Interstellar (2014) 
20.   $73.99M King and the clown (2015)
 

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, Fish&chips said:

Top 20 highest grossing films (USD: Official Record)
01. $131.56M Roaring currents (2014)

02. $122.91M Extreme Job (2019)
03. $107.19M Along with the gods: The Two Worlds (2017)
04. $105.49M Avatar (2009)
05. $100.66M Ode to my Father (2014)
06.   $92.84M veteran (2015)

07.   $90.77M Along with the gods: The last 49 days (2019)

08.   $88.51M Avengers: Infinity War (2018)
09.   $86.92M Assassination (2015)
10.   $84.45M A Taxi Driver (2017)
11.   $82.67M The Thieves (2012)
12.   $81.88M Miracle in cell no.7 (2013)
13.   $81.83M Masquerade (2012)
14.   $81.25M Train to Busan (2016)
15.   $78.29M Avengers: age of Ultron (2015)
16.   $77.80M The Attorney (2013)
17.   $76.83M Frozen (2014)

18.   $74.19M Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
19.   $74.09M Interstellar (2014) 
20.   $73.99M King and the clown (2015)
 

iw made 93 mill 

[Stewart]

Today is looking at 880k-900k depending on CGV %. For an expanded range, if CGV goes wonky, it should 95% be between 850k and 950k. 

 

We'll be estimating 895,000 admissions for the day, which would be up about 62% from yesterday, which is just fantastic given IW only increased 45% from Monday to Labor Day Tuesday last year. 

 

Overall a very good result which puts EG on track for just about over 1m on Saturday, based on current projections. There's a chance it misses it though.

 

You can see the full run for today below, as well as the link for the full Megasheet^TM.

Wednesday, 1 May
Time	Adm.
Presales	268,000
09:20	294,000
10:20	306,000
11:20	316,000
12:20	327,000
13:20	340,000
14:20	356,000
15:20	369,000
16:20	381,000
17:20	391,000
18:20	400,000
19:20	409,000
20:20	416,000
21:20	421,000
22:20	426,000
23:20	430,000
Actual:	895,000

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

[Stewart]

Wednesday Labour Day early estimate: 

 

908,379

HUGE!

[pepsa]

So actuals will go over 920k, seems great indeed  

[Stewart]

Just now, Stewart said:

Wednesday Labour Day early estimate: 

 

908,379

HUGE!

For comparison, IW had LD one day earlier and managed 717,324 admissions, so this is a fantastic result. Estimated 47% CGV too means our Megasheet^TM graphs are looking like a winner again!