Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets | July 21, 2017 | FLOP OF THE YEAR

[ZeeSoh]

From Grim in the buzz thread

 

Deep Wang updates:

 

- Apes picked up big and should come close to 70% of F8 before release. Above Pirates in presales and about double of Power Rangers

- Dunkirk added another 50% in the past 2 days and is still running ahead of Pirates as well

- Valerian is at 27% of GITS at same point in time

 

For reference GITS opened to 18.7m and finished at 40.5 million

Edited July 12, 2017 by ZeeSoh

[filmlover]

28 minutes ago, MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie said:

 

Which is why i think it's pretty silly to think Rotten Tomatoes is going to be changing the way it collates and scores reviews anytime soon.  Look at the influence they have now.  Why would they change?  

We all know studios have zero complaints whenever RT works in their favor. It's when it doesn't that the take issue because screw accountability.

[That One Girl]

2 hours ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

Hey,That One Guy, why do you want Valerian to succeed so much? You are a big fan of Cara Delevingne ? Does anyone know?

 

It looks fantastic and it's a breath of fresh air from the constant deluge of the same old franchise films being released.  I love sci-fi (especially space operas), I think Luc Besson is a great director, and the visuals look fantastic.  Really, it's pretty simple.

[That One Girl]

23 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

From Grim in the buzz thread

 

Deep Wang updates:

 

- Apes picked up big and should come close to 70% of F8 before release. Above Pirates in presales and about double of Power Rangers

- Dunkirk added another 50% in the past 2 days and is still running ahead of Pirates as well

- Valerian is at 27% of GITS at same point in time

 

For reference GITS opened to 18.7m and finished at 40.5 million

 

It's not the best comp.  GITS was inherently frontloaded and relied on presales from its fanbase.  Valerian is going to have much stronger walkups.

[AniNate]

Pacific Rim would seem to be the most apt comparison

[ZeeSoh]

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

It's not the best comp.  GITS was inherently frontloaded and relied on presales from its fanbase.  Valerian is going to have much stronger walkups.

 

Yup i know that. But just so u know I did not make that comparision I just copy pasted.   

 

That being said 27% of 18 is about 5 million. Even if walk ups are stronger than GITS I doubt they will be so strong as to increase that number to say 30-40 milion OW. 

 

Hopefully it picks up in presales soon seeing that the reviews came yesterday and they were good. 

[That One Girl]

7 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Pacific Rim would seem to be the most apt comparison

 

It would be, if it didn't come out in 2013.

[NCsoft]

9 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Yup i know that. But just so u know I did not make that comparision I just copy pasted.   

 

That being said 27% of 18 is about 5 million. Even if walk ups are stronger than GITS I doubt they will be so strong as to increase that number to say 30-40 milion OW. 

 

Hopefully it picks up in presales soon seeing that the reviews came yesterday and they were good. 

 

Yeah, that seems oddly low, hopefully this picks up, although this movie is guaranteed not to do very well domestically, it would just be sad that it performs worse than GITS....

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

From Grim in the buzz thread

 

Deep Wang updates:

 

- Apes picked up big and should come close to 70% of F8 before release. Above Pirates in presales and about double of Power Rangers

- Dunkirk added another 50% in the past 2 days and is still running ahead of Pirates as well

- Valerian is at 27% of GITS at same point in time

 

For reference GITS opened to 18.7m and finished at 40.5 million

Damn. Apes looking to have a very, very big OW if it's 70% of F8. Probably $75M+ OW DOM. Awesome.

[Valonqar]

Great for Apes and Dunkirk (fingers crossed for breakouts) but poor Valeriaan. 

[DMan7]

8M OW for Valerian on the cards. Not bad, not bad at all.

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

8M OW for Valerian on the cards. Not bad, not bad at all.

 

[DMan7]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

 

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

 

[Morieris]

This (+ Homecoming and Dunkirk) got delayed for China release

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-delays-release-spider-man-homecoming-valerian-1020258

[marveldcfox]

3 minutes ago, Morieris said:

This (+ Homecoming and Dunkirk) got delayed for China release

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-delays-release-spider-man-homecoming-valerian-1020258

 

All 3 will release close to each other. Hence, cutting into each others gross. China rocks.

[GrimFandango]

4 minutes ago, Morieris said:

This (+ Homecoming and Dunkirk) got delayed for China release

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-delays-release-spider-man-homecoming-valerian-1020258

 

Wow, that could put a damper on the OS performance of these guys.  It's been a few years since I last familiarized myself with the China market, but I seem to remember that had a habit of only paying something like 25% of the sales back to the studios or something?

 

 

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, GrimFandango said:

but I seem to remember that had a habit of only paying something like 25% of the sales back to the studios or something?

 

They do and they have studio accepting the deal because it cost them almost nothing in marketing to release a movie under that deal for a market that large (for many movie the studio marketing expense in China will look like what they spent in say Belgium)

 

Making the net theatrical return (China bo * 0.25 - China release expense) of about 22/23%, that is right in the middle of the world average in term of net return, not particularly good but not bad all, specially considering that it is the only market with a risk 0 of loosing money by spending more on the release than what you get back from tickets.

 

As long as releasing stay cheap in China (with a controlled market and a very digital marketing system), I don't see why they would up that number up, as long as we don't see big popular movie in China refusing to release there or China movie being popular in the US and being able to use those as a negotiation peace, expect that 25% number to stay around that level, it is not a bad deal at all.

 

What matter more and what is more different is the after theatrical windows market.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Damn. Apes looking to have a very, very big OW if it's 70% of F8. Probably $75M+ OW DOM. Awesome.

 

70% of F8 would be about $69m.    F8 is also very walk up heavy and w/e in March are usually less front loaded which as a comparison should offset the older skewing Apes

[TalismanRing]