The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

[Dementeleus]

The harsh drop from wednesday could play in it's advantage on thursday, meaning that it could drop less than TF1 did on thursday.

I don't think that's the case. Wed-Thurs here is basically a mini Sun-Mon. The drop's going to be over 25% easily.Movies these days tend to be more frontloaded too, especially if they're not the first film in a franchise.Honestly, I'm not sure what's going to happen, but I'll venture a guess that, in general, TASM's holds won't be as good as TF1's for Thurs-Fri-Sat-Sun.

[baumer]

I work for Boxoffice.com (Daniel Garris), and can say that BOM in all likelihood removed $850,000 from Sony's reported Tuesday actual # on accident. Sony had already separated the $850,000 from the $35,016,884 Tuesday actual they just reported.

Daniel Garris! HA! Nice to know it's you. I like reading your daily write ups. So are you saying that the number is 34.1 mill plus the 850K from Canadian previews?

[tawasal]

I don't think that's the case. Wed-Thurs here is basically a mini Sun-Mon. The drop's going to be over 25% easily.Movies these days tend to be more frontloaded too, especially if they're not the first film in a franchise.Honestly, I'm not sure what's going to happen, but I'll venture a guess that, in general, TASM's holds won't be as good as TF1's for Thurs-Fri-Sat-Sun.

The reason I think it will have smaller drop is because this movie burned most of it's demand on these 2 days unlike TF1, which had great legs.

[Dementeleus]

But if it burned most of its demand, wouldn't that make the drops larger?

[TLK]

Its drop will be determined by the evening business today. It can drop by over 40% if the evening business is bad enough.

[redfirebird2008]

The reason I think it will have smaller drop is because this movie burned most of it's demand on these 2 days unlike TF1, which had great legs.

Your post makes zero sense.

[tawasal]

But if it burned most of its demand, wouldn't that make the drops larger?

The large drop was made already by thursday to even out the coming days perfomance. Meaning in other words that thursdays numbers brought it back to earth after having bigger OD than TF1.

[JarJarBinks]

Daniel Garris! HA! Nice to know it's you. I like reading your daily right ups. So are you saying that the number is 34.1 mill plus the 850K from Canadian previews?

Sony included a current total of 59,202,809So its 850,000 + 35,016,884 + 23,335,925 = 59,202,809And thanks for reading the write-ups. Edited July 5, 2012 by JarJarBinks

[tawasal]

Your post makes zero sense.

I know why it would seem confusing, but I have no better way to explain it now. Let me look around my head and see what I can find.

[redfirebird2008]

I know why it would seem confusing, but I have no better way to explain it now. Let me look around my head and see what I can find.

[tawasal]

Sony included a current total of 59,202,809So its 850,000 + 35,016,884 + 23,335,925 = 59,202,809

www.the-numbers.com has those numbers too.

[Dementeleus]

I assume you mean Wednesday. But even then, I think you're using the typical Wed-Thurs scenario when it's much more like a Sun-Mon. Wednesday wasn't just a normal Wednesday, it was a huge national holiday.

[4815162342]

2009- Puerto Rico and TF22012- Canada and TASM2015- Guam (?) and Avengers 2 (?)

Edited July 5, 2012 by 4815162342

[tawasal]

Okay let see if this makes some sense. TF1 increased unlike TASM and which I think resulted in that 34% drop, but TASMs drop will mean IMO that it will have softer drop, because it didn't increase like it should, but felt very hard on a day where every other movie other than TED and MM increased.

[lilmac]

This may be one of those cases where we just don't have enough prior examples to make educational guesses (TF2 being the closest).As far as boxoffice analyzing is concerned - I'm sitting this one out, through Sunday. Next week should be more "normal".

[redfirebird2008]

Okay let see if this makes some sense.TF1 increased unlike TASM and which I think resulted in that 34% drop, but TASMs drop will mean IMO that it will have softer drop, because it didn't increase like it should, but felt very hard on a day where every other movie other than TED and MM increased.

The reason TF1 increased is because it blew off $8m in demand on Monday night. If it had a regular Tuesday opening, a vast majority of that $8m would have ended up in Tuesday's gross. So it effectively dropped, just not as bad as Spidey.

[tawasal]

I assume you mean Wednesday. But even then, I think you're using the typical Wed-Thurs scenario when it's much more like a Sun-Mon. Wednesday wasn't just a normal Wednesday, it was a huge national holiday.

Yeah I think I meant wednesday, but still not sure. Edited July 5, 2012 by tawasal

[tawasal]

The reason TF1 increased is because it blew off $8m in demand on Monday night. If it had a regular Tuesday opening, a vast majority of that $8m would have ended up in Tuesday's gross. So it effectively dropped, just not as bad as Spidey.

Let me see I am very confused here.What is TF1's midnights? and was it added on tuesday gross?TASM got 7,5m midnights and was added to it's tuesday gross, so go back to the 2nd question if the answer is no, why not?That might be the blame for my confussion. Edited July 5, 2012 by tawasal

[filmnerdjamie]

2009- Puerto Rico and TF2

2012- Canada and TASM

2015- Guam (?) and Avengers 2 (?)

Don't forget Sony time-traveling back to 2007 and changing the midnight grosses for Spider-Man 3 and then another year back and changed the Pirates 2 numbers.

[Sims]

If TASM has a 25% or higher drop today, then 250M total might actually be tough.