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Shawn Robbins

The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

By Shawn Robbins, in Numbers and Data

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Lordmandeep Global Phenomenon

Lordmandeep

Posted
Posted (edited)

lol it was just some guys having fun...

Downtown there are always people dressed up.

They got inside a subway car and decided to have a mock fight

In other news..

Posted Image

Edited by Lordmandeep
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ZattMurdock Global Phenomenon

ZattMurdock

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My theatre has had zero sellouts, 2D or 3D, but I won't pretend that means anything.

This would never do The Avengers numbers. If it has packed theaters all across the board, it can be insanely huge without an EVERYTHING IS A SELLOUT scenario. I think people that follow box office numbers got seriously spoiled since The Avengers.
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Walt Disney Summer Tentpole

Walt Disney

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If 27M is true that would be solid not spectacular or great but solid like the 7.5M midnight number. I think if it's at 17M after the matinees than we're looking at 30M+ not 27M but regardless under 200M club would be dead with either scenario.

Baumer is actually thinking about conceding if TASM does over $27M. I hope he changes his mind and rides it out a little bit longer. However, I know he's thinking about it.
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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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This would never do The Avengers numbers. If it has packed theaters all across the board, it can be insanely huge without an EVERYTHING IS A SELLOUT scenario. I think people that follow box office numbers got seriously spoiled since The Avengers.

50M needs a scenario like that :P

I was just joking with you ;)

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Walt Disney Summer Tentpole

Walt Disney

Posted
Posted

lol it was just some guys having fun...

Downtown there are always people dressed up.

They got inside a subway car and decided to have a mock fight

In other news..

Posted Image

Some burger joint called Hardys said that if you dress up like Spider-Man on the 4th of July and come to a Hardys, you get a free cheeseburger (or maybe they said bacon cheeseburger). I don't even know if there is a Hardys in NY, so maybe they are advertising for Long Island or New Jersey because those are close by.

Smart commercial to run during SM3, since I am sure lots of people are watching this movie :P .

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Biggestgeekever Box Office Gold

Biggestgeekever

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I really don't think $27m would be solid at all. That'd basically mean it did what a lot of us with lower end predictions were expecting it to do during the day (actually, slightly less), and that it was just more frontloaded to midnights. The Tuesday opening obviously makes things tricky, but a 6-day of $120m would be the max.Still thinking it'll end up higher than that, though.

Edited by Biggestgeekever
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druv10 Global Phenomenon

druv10

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Baumer is actually thinking about conceding if TASM does over $27M. I hope he changes his mind and rides it out a little bit longer. However, I know he's thinking about it.

lol, Baumer's never gonna concede until it hits 200M mark. ;)
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Walt Disney Summer Tentpole

Walt Disney

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lol, Baumer's never gonna concede until it hits 200M mark. ;)

I hope he doesn't. He is sticking with his prediction, so it makes no sense to concede now. But if you flip through this thread and Baumer's thread, he did talk about conceding in one of them.
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ZattMurdock Global Phenomenon

ZattMurdock

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I really don't think $27m would be solid at all. That'd basically mean it did what a lot of us with lower end predictions were expecting it to do during the day (actually, slightly less), and that it was just more frontloaded to midnights. The Tuesday opening obviously makes things tricky, but a 6-day of $120m would be the max.Still thinking it'll end up higher than that, though.

I'm NO Box Office specialist, but you're reading these numbers wrong, and I've learned that with The Avengers. July blockbusters naturally have better weekdays, and most of all, July 4th releases are different beasts. In order to understand the box office of these days, you need to look the big picture. Imagine that it just stays flat, with shorter drops up until sunday. We get $150m? Well, that's a 2x multiplier and with good legs it'd certainly cross $300m and then some. We get sexy $170m-$190m? Well, with good legs it has some real shot at $400m. With $190m-$200m, $400m is happening. This is me analysing this stuff as an apprentice of reading this and trying to stay as objective as possible, and I can see this film having legs and attracting a different crowd than TDKR and other releases, both can coexist and still have crazy box office numbers.
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