Weekend Estimates TDKR 62.84 IA4 13.3 TW 13 SU4 11.8

[Ozymandias]

I'm simply suggesting that a 76% drop by itself is meaningless. We always knew it was going to drop big because of the midnight take. The problem here is that we're used to having finite circumstances by which to qualify these kinds of drops -- but that isn't the case this time.Between the other films dropping hard last weekend, their apparent failure to recover this weekend, the Olympics beginning, and the national backlash of moviegoers as evidenced in NRG's tracking -- you have to admit, there's some strong evidence there.If WOM is the primary factor affecting TDKR, why is almost every other film in the market now struggling too?

Threequel curse (most agree its not as uber great like TDK, but not a bad film like SM3 so WOM isn't on par)No Joker (hes just as big as batman if not bigger)No 6 months of dead celebrity hypeTheres the possibility that TDKR may finish under 400m now. Theres just absolutely no way in hell the shooting alone would have that kind of an effect on the film, there are more factors. Batman just isn't as big as TDK normally, that film had a very unique and extroardinary set of circumstances that will never happen again. I've been saying it long before release that there was no way this movie was gonna come close to TDK's admissions and I've been called an irrational hater for it.

[redfirebird2008]

So who would direct it. I know you said Bird in TA's thread but he has too many movies to take on this project. Dini and Timm, in my mind would work.

Bird can drop whatever he's doing for Batman, haha. I would love so much to see him with his IMAX cameras and sense of adventure mixed with the Timm and Dini brand of storytelling and design for Gotham in B:TAS. It would be fucking perfect.

[#ED]

The wrap.com

But the overall box office numbers indicate many moviegoers are still affected by last weekend's tragedy and suggest the opening of the London Olympics hurt, too. The studios knew it would be tough going in. They were told by research firm NRG that 20 percent to 25 percent of moviegoers remained hesitant about going to the theaters.

[Adm56]

You can strongly disagree all you want, it doesn't change the fact that the climax of Avengers was hurt by the crossover with IM3. They hurt their own storytelling in that situation, and the more movies they make the more it will take its toll on the storytelling. I want a great version of Batman, not a formulaic one that is attempting to tie in with other stuff. A great version of Batman requires ignoring Justice League and simply focusing on the strengths of Batman mythology. The Animated Series absolutely nailed it. It's dark, yet adventurous. Adults and kids can both enjoy it. It doesn't delve into the grotesque or camp like Burton or Schumacher, nor does it go completely bleak like Nolan. It focuses heavily on Batman's strength as the world's greatest detective, something that Burton, Schumacher, and Nolan all failed to do. And it has a wonderful design for Gotham along with a fantastical group of villains for Batman to deal with.

Oh come on...(Avengers and TDKR spoilers follow)

So removing the threat of Tony dying at the end of the Avengers because of the existence of Iron-Man 3 is worse from a story telling perspective than the happy Scooby Doo ending we get at the end of the TDKR? LOL Just because Iron-man's in IM3 doesn't mean a cliffhanger in Avengers was an impossibility. Happens all the time in the comics. And if they can't resign RDJ for a reasonable fee you might start to see some really crazy shit when it comes to who is in the armor. Which would be in line with the comics

[Letsuseournoggin]

In hindsight we can agree on all of the following:1. Most of this board, clearly overpredicted this movie's potential and must see factor. 200m was never in the cards. 2. The shooting clearly affected the run. We'll never know how much, but most can agree what turned out to be a 160m OW would have probably been a 175-180ish million haul. To say it wasn't affected is silly and fueled by Nolanite hatred and to say it was the sole purpose for its shortcomings is sily and Nolanite love. 3 WOM is not on TDK or TA levels, but it's still mostly positive. Ppl saying it's mostly negative or letting their personal shit get in the way and likewise for those saying its getting better WOM then the aforementioned films. 4. The movie will be saved by OS take which will ultimately allow this to still be a strong success story, despite the tragic events. 5. Endless, pointless, stupid arguments will continue on these boards for decades about what could have been with no side winning. End discussion damn it!

[Dark Prince]

Actually, after seeing the film, I totally get why it's dividing people. But I also accept that it's a mixture of many things. To say it's just because people aren't into the movie itself is pretty absurd.

But here is the reality of the situation. TDK's second weekend saw the decline of 52.5%, if we assume TDKR is going to make 60M this weekend, it would have a decline of 62.5%.

But some say that's not a fair comparison, which is right. So let's remove %50 of TDKR's midnight sales, making it's first weekend's gross 145M. Then it would have a 2nd weekend decline of 58.6%.

Even if you take away all of it's midnight gross, it's second weekend would see a decline of 53.8%.

Fair enough comparison, right? Yet I don't see any of those numbers as great indications of a fantastic WOM. Assuming people aren't panicking more as time goes by (since it should be the opposite), a 59% second weekend decline is not what I'd call amazing.

Then some will say, but what about the Olympics? But when you look at 4 years ago, or even the estimated drops for the other movies this weekend, the effect is minimal if non-existent.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Dark Prince

[redfirebird2008]

Oh come on...(Avengers and TDKR spoilers follow)

So removing the threat of Tony dying at the end of the Avengers because of the existence of Iron-Man 3 is worse from a story telling perspective than the happy Scooby Doo ending we get at the end of the TDKR? LOL Just because Iron-man's in IM3 doesn't mean a cliffhanger in Avengers was an impossibility. Happens all the time in the comics. And if they can't resign RDJ for a reasonable fee you might start to see some really crazy shit when it comes to who is in the armor. Which would be in line with the comics

My criticism of TA's climax has zilch to do with TDKR. Not sure why you're even comparing the two. My criticism of TA's climax has more to do with my concern about WB doing something similar with Justice League. The best Marvel film is still IM1 and that's because it wasn't obsessed with crossover bullshit. It was focused on Tony's story and it did a wonderful job telling that story.

[lilmac]

Batman Begins is a more useful barometer for TDKR. Others have said it, TDK was an anomaly.

Edited July 28, 2012 by lilmac

[druv10]

The Batman animated series a miracle in my eyes. I still can't believe something that good was made for children's television.

Animation in the 90's kick ass of animation today. Batman animated series was well made, with great plots, and very good interpretation of Bruce/Batman. Sadly, kids today have no idea what they missed.This opening music gives me chills, such badass music. http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEx9r5enZsk Edited July 28, 2012 by druv10

[YoursTruly]

So TDKR is looking at a 65%+ drop this weekend. Ouch. Well, summer weekdays should get it to $400M...probably...maybe.

[Jack Nevada]

Batman the Animated Series was my favorite as a kid. It still holds up

[lab276]

Then some will say, but what about the Olympics? But when you look at 4 years ago, or even the estimated drops for the other movies this weekend, the effect is minimal if not non-existent.

They were the most watched yet, so the effect will have been bigger.

[redfirebird2008]

Animation in the 90's kick ass of animation today. Batman animated series was well made, with great plots, and very good interpretation of Bruce/Batman. Sadly, kids today have no idea what they missed.http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEx9r5enZsk

Greatest TV intro of all-time, regardless of live action or animation.

[filmscholar]

Look, I agree, No JOKER meant it was going to drop. People have to realize. Bane just isn't a popular Batman Villain. Sure he's epic and iconic for the damage he caused in the Batman Comics but to general audiences it's The Joker, Penguin, The Ridler, Two Face and Catwoman. Shoot, Mr. Freeze I'd agrue is slightly more popular than Bane as well as pobably Clayface. So I agree that again no Joker has caused some in the general audience to might wait for video. But people can not seriously be agruing the Shooting hasn't effected not just this but the box office in general. People are paraniod to go the movies and with Pay Per View, Online Streaming from Netflix and other means to watch movies, why would someone risk getting possible hurt in a crowded theater. People are staying home. Just the fact we are debating if 400 is still in play shows you the effect this shooting has had. Cause even without the Joker i'd argue this was a lock for over 400. As for WOM, again it's soild, not great but soild but it's not bad in anyway. I also underestimated the Olmpics, seems a lot of people are watching it and London is a big city in the world so it's getting a huge response. Overall TDKR got hit with a unique set of circumstances and it's final gross will always have a "*" over it to me.

[Letsuseournoggin]

Batman the Animated Series was my favorite as a kid. It still holds up

I own it. Great stuff.

[Shawn Robbins]

Olympics started on August 8 in 2008, but ultimately I don't think they would have as much effect on the domestic box office as the shooting has.

[ZattMurdock]

Bird can drop whatever he's doing for Batman, haha. I would love so much to see him with his IMAX cameras and sense of adventure mixed with the Timm and Dini brand of storytelling and design for Gotham in B:TAS. It would be fucking perfect.

Hell no. Now that he is entering the game and telling HIS Batman. 2015/2016.

[druv10]

Bird can drop whatever he's doing for Batman, haha. I would love so much to see him with his IMAX cameras and sense of adventure mixed with the Timm and Dini brand of storytelling and design for Gotham in B:TAS. It would be fucking perfect.

I can get on board with Bird doing Batman then The Incredibles 2.

[filmscholar]

I'm simply suggesting that a 76% drop by itself is meaningless. We always knew it was going to drop big because of the midnight take. The problem here is that we're used to having finite circumstances by which to qualify these kinds of drops -- but that isn't the case this time.Between the other films dropping hard last weekend, their apparent failure to recover this weekend, the Olympics beginning, and the national backlash of moviegoers as evidenced in NRG's tracking -- you have to admit, there's some strong evidence there.If WOM is the primary factor affecting TDKR, why is almost every other film in the market now struggling too?

This is exactly the point Shawn the shooting has effected the Entire Box Office. I'm not saying "The Watch" or "Step Up part 25" was going to do great but clearly people are staying away from the theater.

[The Futurist]

My eyes are bleeding reading you.All arguments are null and void I am sorry to anounce.And if you think you are adding any new idea, you don't, everything has been said a thousand times.TDKR will forever remain a big "what if" and we ll never know what exactly happened ...