2015 Discussion Thread: Universal wins the calendar year | SW: TFA - biggest film domestic, 3rd biggest film worldwide

[stripe]

What are your predicts?

 

For SW7? My very conservative predictions:

 

450-500M DOM

700-750M OS

 

My range is 1.15 / 1.25 billion WW. Obviously it can gross many more

 

But, Minions can gross 1.2 billion WW

[kayumanggi]

For SW7? My very conservative predictions:

 

450-500M DOM

700-750M OS

 

My range is 1.15 / 1.25 billion WW. Obviously it can gross many more

 

But, Minions can gross 1.2 billion WW

 

Hmm. I think this will make 600 M in North America. It's overseas performance will be the deciding factor imo.

[cmbbox2390]

Here are my top 5 predictions for the rest of the year.

Opening Weekend, Domestic and Worldwide.

Ranked by Domestic Total

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

OW: 137m

DOM: 723m

WW: 1.95b

2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

OW: 148m

DOM: 367m

WW: 845m

3. Spectre

OW: 79m

DOM: 296m

WW: 1.08m

4. The Good Dinosaur

OW: 67m

DOM: 239

WW: 722m

5. Hotel Transylvania 2

OW: 52m

DOM: 167m

WW: 572m

Edited August 25, 2015 by cmbbox2390

[K1stpierre]

SW will take number 2 DOM.

[Ethan Hunt]

SW will take number 2 DOM.

Maybe

[kitik]

Maybe

 

 

I'd be pretty surprised if Episode 7 couldn't make 460M. It would have to have really bad reviews. And even then it could still hit 460.

[K1stpierre]

Maybe

It will def make it past Ultron. With decent reviews, this should get to around 525, if not higher. Sky's the limit.

[MovieMan89]

Hell, after Skyfall's massive OS haul, AOU could go down to 5th WW for the year.

[WrathOfHan]

I'd say 500M is the lowest and Avatar is the highest SW7 can go.

[MovieMan89]

I'd say 500M is the lowest and Avatar is the highest SW7 can go.

Only 100m more than JW? I highly doubt that's the highest it can possibly go. Just the fact that we'll be dealing with a 150m+ opener in December is going to get the thing to crazy high numbers crazy fast barring bad WOM.

[WrathOfHan]

Only 100m more than JW? I highly doubt that's the highest it can possibly go. Just the fact that we'll be dealing with a 150m+ opener in December is going to get the thing to crazy high numbers crazy fast barring bad WOM.

 

I hope you're right, but I can't see it beating Avatar.

[kitik]

Hell, after Skyfall's massive OS haul, AOU could go down to 5th WW for the year.

 

That seems beyond the realm of possibility for Spectre.

 

 

I'd say 500M is the lowest and Avatar is the highest SW7 can go.

 

There is no upper limit for Episode 7.

 

Not saying it's going to do Avatar numbers, mind you, but if the reviews are great, the WOM is excellent, and it really catches on with the public, it could reach some really big numbers.

[kayumanggi]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RELEASE SCHEDULE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEPTEMBER

11 | PERFECT GUY | THE VISIT | 90 MINUTES IN HEAVEN

18 | MAZE RUNNER: THE SCORCH TRIALS | CAPTIVE | EVEREST | BLACK MASS | SICARIO

25 | HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA II | THE INTERN | THE GREEN INFERNO

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OCTOBER

02 | THE MARTIAN | THE WALK

09 | STEVE JOBS | PAN

16 | BRIDGE OF SPIES | GOOSEBUMPS | CRIMSON PEAK

23 | PARANORMAL ACTIVITY: THE GHOST DIMENSION | JEM AND THE HOLOGRAMS | THE LAST WITCH HUNTER | BURNT | ROCK THE KASBAH

30 | SCOUTS GUIDE TO THE ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE | OUR BRAND IS CRISIS | AUTOBAHN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOVEMBER

06 | THE PEANUTS MOVIE | SPECTRE | THE OUTSKIRTS

13 | RINGS | BY THE SEA | THE 33 | MY ALL AMERICAN

20 | THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY II | THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES

27 | THE GOOD DINOSAUR | VICTOR FRANKENSTEIN | THE NIGHT BEFORE | CREED

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DECEMBER

04 | KRAMPUS

11 | IN THE HEART OF THE SEA

18 | STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS | SISTERS

25 | ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE ROAD CHIP | JOY | THE REVENANT | DADDY'S HOME | CONCUSSION | POINT BREAK | THE HATEFUL EIGHT | SNOWDEN

Edited September 15, 2015 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

Four more movies will enter the top 10.

 

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY II

SPECTRE

THE GOOD DINOSAUR

[langer]

Here are my top 5 predictions for the rest of the year.

Opening Weekend, Domestic and Worldwide.

Ranked by Domestic Total

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

OW: 137m

DOM: 723m

WW: 1.95b

2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

OW: 148m

DOM: 367m

WW: 845m

3. Spectre

OW: 79m

DOM: 296m

WW: 1.08m

4. The Good Dinosaur

OW: 67m

DOM: 239

WW: 722m

5. Hotel Transylvania 2

OW: 52m

DOM: 167m

WW: 572m

 

That 5,3 multiplier for SW seems a bit high.  A good mid December multiplier is around 3,75-4,25...   

[kayumanggi]

That 5,3 multiplier for SW seems a bit high.  A good mid December multiplier is around 3,75-4,25...   

 

Well AVATAR almost got a 10x multiplier.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Well, the thing with Avatar is....that film had James Cameron.

And I'm not sure if J.J Abrams is that big of a draw as a director like Cameron is.

SW: EP7 could end up as the 5th place DOM of all time.

[langer]

Well AVATAR almost got a 10x multiplier.

 

Avatar is the only exception and you can't get a 10X multiplier with a  sequel (at least not anymore...).  Original movies tend to have higher multipliers.  

 

TPM : 6.7 multipliers from a Wed release 

AotC : 3.9 multiplier from a Thurs release

RotS : 3.5 multiplier from a Thurs release

 

December release

Hobbit AUJ : 3.8 multiplier

I am Legend : 3.3 multiplier

Avatar :  9.9 multiplier

Hobbit DOS : 3.5 multiplier

LotR RotK : 5.2 multiplier (Wed release)

Narnia 1 : 4.4 multiplier

LotR TTT : 5.5 multiplier (Wed release)

Hobbit BotFA : 4.6 multiplier (Wed release)

King Kong : 4.4 multiplier ( Thursday release)

LotR FotR  : 6.7 multiplier (Wed release)

Tron Legacy : 3.9 multiplier

Sherlock Holmes 2 : 4.7 multiplier

 

You can clearly see that aside from Avatar, none of the blockbusters released between December 10th and December 20th on Fridays achieved a 5+ multiplier...

 

I don't see SW getting a multiplier over 4...

[Juby]

SW TFA : 4.6-4.7 multiplier!

[kayumanggi]

Avatar is the only exception and you can't get a 10X multiplier with a  sequel (at least not anymore...).  Original movies tend to have higher multipliers.  

 

TPM : 6.7 multipliers from a Wed release 

AotC : 3.9 multiplier from a Thurs release

RotS : 3.5 multiplier from a Thurs release

 

December release

Hobbit AUJ : 3.8 multiplier

I am Legend : 3.3 multiplier

Avatar :  9.9 multiplier

Hobbit DOS : 3.5 multiplier

LotR RotK : 5.2 multiplier (Wed release)

Narnia 1 : 4.4 multiplier

LotR TTT : 5.5 multiplier (Wed release)

Hobbit BotFA : 4.6 multiplier (Wed release)

King Kong : 4.4 multiplier ( Thursday release)

LotR FotR  : 6.7 multiplier (Wed release)

Tron Legacy : 3.9 multiplier

Sherlock Holmes 2 : 4.7 multiplier

 

You can clearly see that aside from Avatar, none of the blockbusters released between December 10th and December 20th on Fridays achieved a 5+ multiplier...

 

I don't see SW getting a multiplier over 4...

 

First, comparing the STAR WARS brand to those movies is just wrong. Episodes I - III were also summer releases. I am not saying this will do a 10x multiplier. I'm not even saying a 4x multiplier is a lock. All I want to say is we should not be closing our minds to possibilities. This could open to 100 M and make 500 M total or open to 200 M and finish with 700 M. Anything can happen.