China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[meriodejaneiro]

3 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I don't know any of the backstory and don't care about it either. It is just that I have seen multiple consequetive posts of yours being about that guy and it just feels strange to me how much you focus on it. You made your point clear that you don't like him. Repetition becomes really tiring.

...and yet you comment and criticize pretending to have the truth on your side. Very coherent. 

And anyway, i post links to articles that highly criticize and smash with ire and vengeance TLJ run, something very popular in this forum these weeks. You should like it.

[Gavin Feng]

Jumanji previews were held today. WOM looks terrific

[peludo]

8 hours ago, NCsoft said:

Expectedly unspectacular, yes. But I'm speaking in a more general sense, on the recent performance of Coco, Youth and Ex-File 3. Also, even though TLJ performing poorly was expected, the fact that arguably the biggest franchise in the world just can't even put out a film in China now that grosses 1/3 of Resident Evil 6 is still a miracle to me, even if the performance itself is expected. The reason I think China is exciting isn't just that it can be unexpected, but also it often strongly bucks global trends. 

I think that is a bit tricky. Star Wars is right now the biggest franchise WW because it is the biggest franchise in USA by far. But it is not the biggest franchise OS. It never was. It was always a step behind Harry Potter and Middle Earth. And now it is behind Furious and Minions too. TFA was an exception, not the rule. Episodes IV and I did the same, but for some reason, the sequels were/are not able to keep the attention like the franchises I mentioned did/do.

[George Parr]

2 minutes ago, peludo said:

I think that is a bit tricky. Star Wars is right now the biggest franchise WW because it is the biggest franchise in USA by far. But it is not the biggest franchise OS. It never was. It was always a step behind Harry Potter and Middle Earth. And now it is behind Furious and Minions too. TFA was an exception, not the rule. Episodes IV and I did the same, but for some reason, the sequels were/are not able to keep the attention like the franchises I mentioned did/do.

I think the reason why the sequels could never match the first movie of the trilogy while other franchises could, is that most other franchises never had a break. For Star Wars it was 3 movies, 16 years of nothing (apart from the odd re-release), three new episodes, 10 years of nothing, three new episodes (plus off-shoots). So the first one always had the big anticipation that increased its admission totals. Even more so for TFA than TPM, as that one had the return of the old stars.

 

Compared to that, Harry Potter ran continously, as did most franchises. Middle Earth had a bit of a break, but I don't think it really compares in terms of anticipation, as the Hobbit movies were more of a spin-off than a true successor to the last LOTR movie. Jurassic World might actually be the one exception. It had the break and the size on its return. Now it just remains to be seen how the sequel will do.

[meriodejaneiro]

7 minutes ago, peludo said:

I think that is a bit tricky. Star Wars is right now the biggest franchise WW because it is the biggest franchise in USA by far. But it is not the biggest franchise OS. It never was. It was always a step behind Harry Potter and Middle Earth. And now it is behind Furious and Minions too. TFA was an exception, not the rule. Episodes IV and I did the same, but for some reason, the sequels were/are not able to keep the attention like the franchises I mentioned did/do.

Well, that's not fair either.

SW became a the biggest ww franchise at it's moment (1977-1983) in the places where societies were kind of opened and developed and could afford going to theaters (USA, UK, Europe, Japan, Aus/NZ), which are the countries where they are enormous hits these days. 

 

The other franchises you mention have been developed more recently, when they could promote them in many more markets than SW OT could at its moment. 

[FantasticBeasts]

9 minutes ago, George Parr said:

I think the reason why the sequels could never match the first movie of the trilogy while other franchises could, is that most other franchises never had a break. For Star Wars it was 3 movies, 16 years of nothing (apart from the odd re-release), three new episodes, 10 years of nothing, three new episodes (plus off-shoots). So the first one always had the big anticipation that increased its admission totals. Even more so for TFA than TPM, as that one had the return of the old stars.

 

Compared to that, Harry Potter ran continously, as did most franchises. Middle Earth had a bit of a break, but I don't think it really compares in terms of anticipation, as the Hobbit movies were more of a spin-off than a true successor to the last LOTR movie. Jurassic World might actually be the one exception. It had the break and the size on its return. Now it just remains to be seen how the sequel will do.

You are right but that would mean what some of us have been saying for a bit of time; that TFA's overseas performance wasn't indicative of the power that SW has OS.

I think that $650-750m is where I would put SW as a franchise and keep in mind that it is also absolutely difficult to keep consistency for a decade plus. TLJ showed some signs of franchise fatigue If you ask me and I wouldn't be sure the franchise could keep those numbers after a consequetive streak of let's say 8 movies.

[peludo]

26 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Well, that's not fair either.

SW became a the biggest ww franchise at it's moment (1977-1983) in the places where societies were kind of opened and developed and could afford going to theaters (USA, UK, Europe, Japan, Aus/NZ), which are the countries where they are enormous hits these days. 

 

The other franchises you mention have been developed more recently, when they could promote them in many more markets than SW OT could at its moment. 

Sure, but during 70s-80s there were not many franchises to compete with.

During 90s-00s, both Harry Potter and LOTR beat Star Wars in the same conditions.

And now, once the novelty and nostalgia have passed, the franchise is at the same level or behind than others. It has been (extremely) promoted in the same markets with the same conditions.

 

And do not misunderstand me, I love Star Wars (look at my avatar), but I do not think it is the biggest franchise around the globe. It is one very big, but no the biggest.

 

Said this, I do not think this is the best place to talk about this (I apologize since I started it). This is the China thread. We can move the debate to the TLJ OS thread, for example, if you want to keep the conversation alive.

[George Parr]

39 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

You are right but that would mean what some of us have been saying for a bit of time; that TFA's overseas performance wasn't indicative of the power that SW has OS.

I think that $650-750m is where I would put SW as a franchise and keep in mind that it is also absolutely difficult to keep consistency for a decade plus. TLJ showed some signs of franchise fatigue If you ask me and I wouldn't be sure the franchise could keep those numbers after a consequetive streak of let's say 8 movies.

I don't think there were many people who said the opposite. TFA made 1b internationally even if you remove China, only Avatar and Titanic managed that. That was obviously something that wasn't normal for any franchise.

 

Well, it's not like any franchise really could. Even Harry Potter, which showed a ton of stability in terms of money made, got rather lucky with exchange rates and later on 3D. Generally, the first two Potter-movies were far bigger than all the others, yet it doesn't show in the Dollar-total. Even the last one, which made far more money than all the others, wasn't really bigger than its immediate predecessors, apart from in the UK. Though it does seem that there is some sort of level that a franchise generally moves to if it is popular enough (and isn't vanishing into obscurity).

 

E.g., a look at HP in France and Germany in terms of admissions:

F: 9.47m - 9.14m - 7.14m - 7.73m - 6.22m - 6.05m - 6.23m - 6.54m

G: 12.57m - 9.7m - 6.63m - 8.01m - 7.10m - 6.21m - 5.84m - 6.47m

 

You basically get the same effect in both countries, a big start, followed by a decline until some sort of equlibirum has been reached around the 6m mark.

 

If you do the same for Star Wars, discounting the old ones, so just I-III and VII, VIII:

F: 7.92m - ??? - 7.25m - 10.4m - 7-8m?

G: 8.97m - 5.7m - 5.62m - 9.05m - ~6-6.25m

 

Kind of similar, just with the second and third movies of a trilogy showing the same behaviour. Something that probably wouldn't happen if the first of each trilogy didn't get boosted by having a big break before.

 

Apologies for taking this completely off-topic

Edited January 7, 2018 by George Parr

[Gavin Feng]

If you love TLJ, don’t be so sad about this results. And don’t take pleasure if you hate it.

 

Spoiler

Because Han Solo will do far far far worse than TLJ

 

[Olive]

Sunday numbers  est
The Ex-File 3 - 198M/1302M  -10% 
The Last Jedi - 49.2M/186m -31.6%
Youth - 19.6M/1358M  -13%
Hanson and the Beast  - 9.7M/267M  +-2%
Coco - 7.46m/1196m  -0.4%
 

TLJ OW 19% lower than RO, 49% lower than EP7(without service fees)

Edited January 7, 2018 by Olive Skywalker

[Gavin Feng]

China Box Office
前任3：再见前任
Day	Date		Rank	Gross		% - YD	% - LW	Gross-to-Date	Day #	Weekly Gross	% - Change
				RMB / M	USD / M			USD / M		USD / M
Preview	Dec. 26		-	¥11.12	$1.71	-	-	$1.71	-	$45.27	-
Thu	Dec. 28		4	¥2.06	$0.32	-	-	$2.03	0
Fri	Dec. 29		2	¥64.47	$9.91	-	-	$11.93	1
Sat	Dec. 30		1	¥85.41	$13.13	10.00%	-	$25.06	2
Sun	Dec. 31		1	¥131.49	$20.21	53.96%	-	$45.27	3
Mon	Jan. 1		1	¥123.93	$19.05	-5.75%	-	$64.32	4	$154.74	241.80%
Tue	Jan. 2		1	¥93.64	$14.39	-24.44%	-	$78.71	5
Wed	Jan. 3		1	¥108.95	$16.75	16.35%	-	$95.46	6
Thu	Jan. 4		1	¥115.22	$17.71	5.76%	-	$113.17	7
Fri	Jan. 5		1	¥148.79	$22.87	29.14%	91.64%	$136.04	8
Sat	Jan. 6		1	¥218.22	$33.54	46.66%	155.51%	$169.58	9
Sun	Jan. 7		1	¥198.00	$30.43	-9.27%	50.58%	$200.01	10

[Blaze Heatnix]

So, I guess Star Wars will be dying next weekend with Jumanji's release...

[MaxAggressor]

 

[Gavin Feng]

2 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

So, I guess Star Wars will be dying next weekend with Jumanji's release...

Jumanji might not win the weekend.

[Blaze Heatnix]

1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

Jumanji might not win the weekend.

 So, will EX-File 3 be the champion again?

 

Impressive.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

If you love TLJ, don’t be so sad about this results. And don’t take pleasure if you hate it.

 

  Hide contents

Because Han Solo will do far far far worse than TLJ

 

[MaxAggressor]

 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

13 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

Secret Superstar (1.19) and Forever Young (1.12) are also expected to have strong WOM. Very crowded January with five potential breakouts (Ex3, Jumanji , Wonder, Secret Superstar and Forever Young), maybe more. January box office could challenge record 5B (last Jan was 4.9B with 3B~ produced by CNY holiday).

[TigerPaw]

6 hours ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 So, will EX-File 3 be the champion again?

 

Impressive.

Doubt so. There are local films opening with stronger presales next week. Think that is what Gavin is referring to.

Edited January 7, 2018 by TigerPaw

[Son Tung M-TP]

How many films are opening wide this weekend?