China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[fabiopazzo2]

@bangbingchan

 

What you expect OW for Guardian Vol 2 and Pirates 5?

[peludo]

44 minutes ago, pepsa said:

 

But in population its divided by 4 to get to 350M people, so it still only equals a 100M opening ..

But GDP per capita in China is about 6-7 times lower than in US so, since tickets are 50% lower, the effort of one person to buy a ticket is 3-3.5 times higher in China than in US... I think we can continue this until end of time. I leave my initial position and let's say it is a record opening in China

[StephenN18]

I thought FF8 would gross over $200 million in China OW? A lot of people thought $250 million was virtually locked, so I guess it's under-performed. 

[jetmasters]

33 minutes ago, StephenN18 said:

I thought FF8 would gross over $200 million in China OW? A lot of people thought $250 million was virtually locked, so I guess it's under-performed. 

Under performed? You must be joking. Since when is $190m+ opening weekend ever been considered under performing? The $200m+ are all predictions based on presales. Not a big deal not breaking the record because there is always next time. Only the SW fanboys or FF haters are happy this didnt break the record.

[StephenN18]

It made $180 million OW back in 2015, so I thought it would do a lot more than $200 million. Didn't it have higher presales? I never said it did badly, it's done amazing, but not as much as everyone was expecting. 

[peludo]

37 minutes ago, StephenN18 said:

It made $180 million OW back in 2015, so I thought it would do a lot more than $200 million. Didn't it have higher presales? I never said it did badly, it's done amazing, but not as much as everyone was expecting. 

That is not correct. F7 opened on Sunday and it did $63.5m during that OD. And during the next 7 days it grossed another $182m, which I guess is the amount you are referring to (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&country=CH&id=fast7.htm). It is impossible to compare one opening to the other.

 

By the second Sunday (8 days), F7 was, more or less, at 1.5b Yuan ($246m multiplied by 6.2, which was the ER by April 2015). F8 will have reached that amount tomorrow (after 4 days), or Tuesday (5 days). Probably some of us got excited too much with initial presales about beating SW OW record outside US, but 190-195m is a brutal record, no matters how you look at it.

[jiangsen]

48 minutes ago, StephenN18 said:

It made $180 million OW back in 2015, so I thought it would do a lot more than $200 million. Didn't it have higher presales? I never said it did badly, it's done amazing, but not as much as everyone was expecting. 

Not sure where you got that $180M number from. F7 opened on a Sunday so maybe that's the total from Monday through the following Sunday? $195M in 3 days for F8 is definitely not an underperformance. 

[a2k]

Surreal. This is exactly the same debate about TA2's 191 ow after TA1's 207.

[KP1025]

4 hours ago, bangbingchan said:

Avetar is totally another level blockbuster. Another planet level.If it do release in the future,it should try $1bn.$1bn or in total.I Don't know How huge it can be.

 

That would be amazing if China had a film reach $1 billion before the U.S. Avatar 2 probably won't be released until 2020 minimum, so that bodes well for it as the market continues to expand. 

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Surreal. This is exactly the same debate about TA2's 191 ow after TA1's 207.

 

Some people did loose their jobs after Ultron release thought.

[a2k]

Just now, Barnack said:

 

Some people did loose their jobs after Ultron release thought.

Were they hired by Universal?

[Barnack]

37 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Were they hired by Universal?

 

I don't know, 

http://screenrant.com/marvel-studios-creative-committee/

http://birthmoviesdeath.com/2015/09/02/the-marvel-creative-committee-is-over

 

That group would have probably achieved to stay in place and in charge longer if they would have continued to show Disney growth (or at least meet the set expectation).

Edited April 16, 2017 by Barnack

[Blaze Heatnix]

AOU was one of these weird cases that we can't explain.

 

It had a lot of things going for it ( great reception from the first movie, word of mouth about MCU, zero competition ). It went on to open a little smaller, and it finished with a considerable drop domestic at least.

 

It also had mediocre domestic legs. Oh, and it wasn't a good movie like the first Avengers. So, there's that. 

[pepsa]

4 hours ago, peludo said:

But GDP per capita in China is about 6-7 times lower than in US so, since tickets are 50% lower, the effort of one person to buy a ticket is 3-3.5 times higher in China than in US... I think we can continue this until end of time. I leave my initial position and let's say it is a record opening in China

 

Yeah you are totaly right, compairing China and Dom is near imposble with so many arguments for both sides. Like you said this is an amazing opening en astonishing numbers for FF8

[a2k]

51 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

AOU was one of these weird cases that we can't explain.

 

It had a lot of things going for it ( great reception from the first movie, word of mouth about MCU, zero competition ). It went on to open a little smaller, and it finished with a considerable drop domestic at least.

 

It also had mediocre domestic legs. Oh, and it wasn't a good movie like the first Avengers. So, there's that. 

 

Reminded me of Potter 1 and 2 to a degree. 1st one did 90 ow and reached saturation, 2nd one did a bit less with 88 and had worse legs.

However, Potter2 ended 17.5% behind Potter1 while TA2 ended 36% behind TA1. That's what makes it look so bad.

(Incidentally, Lost World also ended 36% behind Jurassic Park. Spiderman2 ended only 7% behind Spiderman1)

[pepsa]

2 hours ago, jetmasters said:

Under performed? You must be joking. Since when is $190m+ opening weekend ever been considered under performing? The $200m+ are all predictions based on presales. Not a big deal not breaking the record because there is always next time. Only the SW fanboys or FF haters are happy this didnt break the record.

 

Nah, i am happy it didn't break 242M OW, just because i want it to be broken by something special, a Chinese movie, or a suprise hit like zootopia. Because lets be honest, FF or Avatar or TF beating the record would be amazing but still kind of expected in the long run. I am just hoping for something more unique, or Lotr movie cause long live lotr

[MattW]

4 hours ago, StephenN18 said:

I thought FF8 would gross over $200 million in China OW? A lot of people thought $250 million was virtually locked, so I guess it's under-performed. 

Those were very very reasonable ex ante guesses based on presale:admissions ratios of the most recent big hollywood movies in china. Fast8 is an outlier as far as that metric goes so I wouldn't hold it against the movie that it didnt meet those predictions.

[POTUS 2020]

7 hours ago, pepsa said:

 

But in population its divided by 4 to get to 350M people, so it still only equals a 100M opening ..

50%~ of the population is rural, low wage and not close to multiplexes. The movie going population draws from about 750m people, about double Dom and with half the half the.

5 hours ago, StephenN18 said:

I thought FF8 would gross over $200 million in China OW? A lot of people thought $250 million was virtually locked, so I guess it's under-performed. 

We thought 200m was locked and 250 possible based on PS. With a 2:15 run time causing 1 less show per screen per day caused an overestimation. Also PS sellouts preventing walkups caused the PS multi to be the lowest ever for a HLWD movie.  It went to into new territory and all models went awry on the last day. Hell, even Maoyan couldnt get the same day projections right.

We have a good idea what to anticipate for TF5 now should PS hit similar levels..

 

April will up more than 50% from last year. 10-20% over 2015

Edited April 17, 2017 by POTUS

[bangbingchan]

8 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

@bangbingchan

 

What you expect OW for Guardian Vol 2 and Pirates 5?

GotG2 400-500M ow,

between Xxx and Kong this year.

It will be interested to see GotG2 OW.

its impact on FF8 and its own performance .AoU never met FF7 in 2015.FF6 hit by Pacific Rim in 2nd weekend.Let's wait and see.

Pirates 5 not sure yet 

500M is on the floor imo.600M？it depends on buzz and wom.Pirates 4 once was No.3 in 2011.FF5 was No.10.Six years is a long time.FF franchise is totally different now.There is Dragon Boat Holiday right behind Pirates 5.That's benefits for Captain Jack to stay Top5 this year.

 

PS：Alien:Covenant will release in May too.

Edited April 17, 2017 by bangbingchan

[Momo]

4

28 minutes ago, bangbingchan said:

GotG2 400-500M ow,

between Xxx and Kong this year.

It will be interested to see GotG2 OW.

its impact on FF8 and its own performance .AoU never met FF7 in 2015.FF6 hit by Pacific Rim in 2nd weekend.Let's wait and see.

Pirates 5 not sure yet 

500M is on the floor imo.600M？it depends on buzz and wom.Pirates 4 once was No.3 in 2011.FF5 was No.10.Six years is a long time.FF franchise is totally different now.There is Dragon Boat Holiday right behind Pirates 5.That's benefits for Captain Jack to stay Top5 this year.

 

PS：Alien:Covenant will release in May too.

 

400M WW or in China? Because the first GOTG only made 87M total in China.