China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[sgchn40]

6 hours ago, Annayya said:

 

Unfortunately, other than Japan I don't think any other country provides this information accurately.

 

 

The only other market I know is South Korea but I think what you had done a fairly good estimate. The general trend is about right.

[terrestrial]

2 hours ago, Annayya said:

Except for my post, I guess 99.999% of the posts in this website are very appropriate to the thread title/topic and there is absolutely no deviation.

In terms of accuracy of the numbers, I said it was a rough approximation. I wasn't trying to prepare a thesis on this for you.

Nope, it sadly is not, but as it seems to become rampant...

only to give you an OT again hint why US inflation might be a tad bit not matching internationally....

Spoiler

Didn't find a nice chart on a fast glance including the 2nd half of 2015, but you should see the message.

Not even near the US' inflation rate since a very long time.

November had 15%...

Inflation Rate in Russia averaged 137.87 percent from 1991 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 2333.30 percent in December of 1992 and a record low of 3.60 percent in April of 2012.

 

Someone at the Russian thread mentioned ~ a week back = $25m today in revenue would have been $65m in 2010 as the ruble dropped to an even deeper point.

I picked the ruble as it shows rather obvious the meant details.

 

And no, I do not want to discuss that further here, beside my main reason for being at BOT is the ww movie business with exact those details included, as this is the China Forum and the China general thread, that obviously got used for daily estimates, discussing / learning about the Chinese movie market developments and so on in general,... before all got invaded/infested by all that 'my movie/franchise is bigger' nonsense.

Ah, before I forget it, there is even a Gone With the Wind thread at dom, that discusses e.g. variations how to calculate inflation / find out about details,.... in the dom forum and so on. You might learn there that I am too differ in some details about how to calculate inflation... and for dom being probably one of the few that might agree to your basic POV. But not in ww, not even roughly.

 

So, back to topic, Variety reports about Wanda saying this:

 

China’s Wanda Forecasts 30% Leap in Entertainment Revenues

Dalian Wanda is forecasting a 30% growth in its revenues following the recently agreed deal to buy Legendary Entertainment for $3.5 billion.

For 2016 the company said that target revenue from its cultural sector businesses is $10.2 billion (RMB66.6 billion). That follows a year in which the cultural sector expanded by 45% and revenue hit $7.83 billion (RMB51.3 billion). it said that Legendary ‘s revenues in 2016 are forecast to be $613 million (RMB4.02 billion.)

 

a lot more to read here:

http://variety.com/2016/biz/asia/wanda-forecasts-entertainment-leap-1201682006/

 

[Agafin]

TFA's performance in China is downright embarassing. Remembers me of The Hobbit's run in Japan. At least, that sends a message to Disney that strong marketting can only get you so far if the audience doesn't like your product. I'm now lowering my (very early) prediction for Rogue One from $200 to $50 million.

[FranMan]

Embarrassing to whom? 

[Tower]

36 minutes ago, Agafin said:

TFA's performance in China is downright embarassing. Remembers me of The Hobbit's run in Japan. At least, that sends a message to Disney that strong marketting can only get you so far if the audience doesn't like your product. I'm now lowering my (very early) prediction for Rogue One from $200 to $50 million.

I think you are over compensating, and are now going to extreme in the other direction. Sequels never drop over 50% in China, even the relative failures tend to make about the same as the originals. 

[TalismanRing]

50 minutes ago, Agafin said:

TFA's performance in China is downright embarassing. Remembers me of The Hobbit's run in Japan. At least, that sends a message to Disney that strong marketting can only get you so far if the audience doesn't like your product. I'm now lowering my (very early) prediction for Rogue One from $200 to $50 million.

 

Rogue One has something Star Wars 7 didn't - Donnie Yen.

[Agafin]

38 minutes ago, FranMan said:

Embarrassing to whom? 

 

No one, it was just an expression.

 

11 minutes ago, Tower said:

I think you are over compensating, and are now going to extreme in the other direction. Sequels never drop over 50% in China, even the relative failures tend to make about the same as the originals. 

 

One of The Hunger Games' sequels did drop from the previous one iirc, and that one's WOM wasn't even this bad.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Agafin

[junkshop36]

So, why was SW not so well known in China? Did none of the previous movies ever play there? 

 

Could Ep8 do better or are Chinese audiences just not liking TFA?

 

Guess I'm confused as to why something like the shit tacular TF4 can do so well but no this. lol

[sgchn40]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

Nope, it sadly is not, but as it seems to become rampant...

only to give you an OT again hint why US inflation might be a tad bit not matching internationally....

  Hide contents

Didn't find a nice chart on a fast glance including the 2nd half of 2015, but you should see the message.

Not even near the US' inflation rate since a very long time.

November had 15%...

Inflation Rate in Russia averaged 137.87 percent from 1991 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 2333.30 percent in December of 1992 and a record low of 3.60 percent in April of 2012.

 

Someone at the Russian thread mentioned ~ a week back = $25m today in revenue would have been $65m in 2010 as the ruble dropped to an even deeper point.

I picked the ruble as it shows rather obvious the meant details.

 

And no, I do not want to discuss that further here, beside my main reason for being at BOT is the ww movie business with exact those details included, as this is the China Forum and the China general thread, that obviously got used for daily estimates, discussing / learning about the Chinese movie market developments and so on in general,... before all got invaded/infested by all that 'my movie/franchise is bigger' nonsense.

Ah, before I forget it, there is even a Gone With the Wind thread at dom, that discusses e.g. variations how to calculate inflation / find out about details,.... in the dom forum and so on. You might learn there that I am too differ in some details about how to calculate inflation... and for dom being probably one of the few that might agree to your basic POV. But not in ww, not even roughly.

 

So, back to topic, Variety reports about Wanda saying this:

 

China’s Wanda Forecasts 30% Leap in Entertainment Revenues

Dalian Wanda is forecasting a 30% growth in its revenues following the recently agreed deal to buy Legendary Entertainment for $3.5 billion.

For 2016 the company said that target revenue from its cultural sector businesses is $10.2 billion (RMB66.6 billion). That follows a year in which the cultural sector expanded by 45% and revenue hit $7.83 billion (RMB51.3 billion). it said that Legendary ‘s revenues in 2016 are forecast to be $613 million (RMB4.02 billion.)

 

a lot more to read here:

http://variety.com/2016/biz/asia/wanda-forecasts-entertainment-leap-1201682006/

 

 

 

Do you know if there is an attendance record for China? If not, we can start an inflation adjusted thread for China movies? Annayya and you can contribute:)

[Agafin]

36 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Rogue One has something Star Wars 7 didn't - Donnie Yen.

 

? If they dislike SW, would the presence of a Chinese actor change anything?

 

29 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

Guess I'm confused as to why something like the shit tacular TF4 can do so well but no this. lol

 

The funny thing with this statement is that I'm pretty sure that some Chinese are also asking themselves how something like the "shit tacular" TFA can do so well in NA and not TF4. Or maybe they aren't, and know that people have different opinions.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Agafin

[Gokai Red]

I remember 2014 being the year where China bashing became cool, mostly cause of TF4. When TF4 came out, everyone loved to bash on China and its poor taste and questioned how they could carry such a "bad" film to record breaking numbers, when a mere month beforehand, everyone was so happy that the Chinese market was expanding, carrying movies like DOFP and CATWS to large numbers.

 

Nostalgia has blinded so much of this forum when it comes to SW and the amount of money it makes. Obviously nostalgia is not the only factor in how much SW, quality plays a part as well, but TPM's performance suggests that TFA would have cruised past 600m DOM even if it was a bad movie. But China has no reason to care for SW the same way DOM or the rest of western world has. To them, it's just another Sci Fi flick, and there's enough of those out there, but this one has some required viewing beforehand. Let's keep in mind though, TFA is still doing respectable numbers in China, even if they're not record breaking. Imagine the seventh film in a Chinese series being released in America and going on to gross 200m DOM. Nothing to scoff at. I'm sure Disney doesn't care that China's gross might be a little bit less than expectations when they have only the third 2 billion dollar movie of all time, 5 guaranteed billion dollar grossers within the next five years, and tens of billions of dollars in merchandise coming in for the next decade and beyond.

 

It's all about perspective. 

[terrestrial]

32 minutes ago, sgchn40 said:

1. Do you know if there is an attendance record for China?

2. If not, we can start an inflation adjusted thread for China movies?

3. Annayya and you can contribute:)

1.& 3.:

Spoiler

I do not care about attendance for the reasons some of you seem to care about that (especially as I think and partly have witnessed myself based on my own age/experience - and some of my friends and family like my father-in-law who was born in 1898 and my father also was born before WW I - that a lot of conclusions based on those ~ discussions are simply wrong anyway), as I highly doubt that that is a big part of interest out of the studios POV (beside obviously for as more ppl see something as more might buy merchandise and watch future movies, spread the interest)

= my interest is:

the past and changes that let to the actual movie business and how what reason might impact in which way for the nearer future.... the studios decisions to pick new material, with all their tax tricks, accounting tricks, additional income, reasons for deciding to film here or there, problems changing ER make, local laws, impact & reason of/for local advertising and translation, changing generally advertising methods/impact, and so on. Also the raise of local movies, their impact on traditional strong in OS... other markets (like the US too), and the impact the technology changes had and have on the the worldwide markets, and so on.

I am aware based on those studies (started in varying degrees in the '70, rather strongly since the early '90 to do so) about a lot of details, but as I personally got way too annoyed with all those 'measurement contests' we actually have to endure here at BOT = I lost any interest in adding to those 'discussions'.

2.: The Good Olive is the moderator of the China Forum, I'd ask him for that.

 

4.: Could you please start to edit quotes, at least the parts not needed like in this case: why quote a magazine's article, link, quote... too? IMHO full quotes are not helping to find out what someone is answering/reacting too and clusters a thread for those not interested in scrolling endlessly (like mobile users, or the occasionally / seldom, but still existing ... dial-in user)

[baumer]

20 hours ago, TommyA10 said:

Of course it's my personal preference. But that is also the consensus of the majority of moviegoers around the world in this case, hence the bad RT/Metacritic/IMDB scores.

 

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/transformers_age_of_extinction/

 

18% on RT (3.9/10), 51% audience score (3.2/5)

32/100 on Metacritic

 

Well apparently there are lots of people who like Transformers movies, hence the huge grosses in the US and international markets.  And yes I'm aware of T4's smallish gross in the US, but the other two were giant hits.  So apparently plenty of people do like them.  I'd rather watch a Transformers film multiple times than have to sit through The Revenant twice.

[baumer]

10 minutes ago, Gokai Red said:

I remember 2014 being the year where China bashing became cool, mostly cause of TF4. When TF4 came out, everyone loved to bash on China and its poor taste and questioned how they could carry such a "bad" film to record breaking numbers, when a mere month beforehand, everyone was so happy that the Chinese market was expanding, carrying movies like DOFP and CATWS to large numbers.

 

Nostalgia has blinded so much of this forum when it comes to SW and the amount of money it makes. Obviously nostalgia is not the only factor in how much SW, quality plays a part as well, but TPM's performance suggests that TFA would have cruised past 600m DOM even if it was a bad movie. But China has no reason to care for SW the same way DOM or the rest of western world has. To them, it's just another Sci Fi flick, and there's enough of those out there, but this one has some required viewing beforehand. Let's keep in mind though, TFA is still doing respectable numbers in China, even if they're not record breaking. Imagine the seventh film in a Chinese series being released in America and going on to gross 200m DOM. Nothing to scoff at. I'm sure Disney doesn't care that China's gross might be a little bit less than expectations when they have only the third 2 billion dollar movie of all time, 5 guaranteed billion dollar grossers within the next five years, and tens of billions of dollars in merchandise coming in for the next decade and beyond.

 

It's all about perspective. 

 

Great post.  For example....and I realize now that this is a Hong Kong movie, but imagine if IP Man had 6 movies and the 7th got released in NA.  If it did the numbers you mentioned, then it would be  a monster hit.  Worrying about how well a film will do in China after it has made about a billion dollars internationally without it, is silly.

[Lihongkim]

25 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

Great post.  For example....and I realize now that this is a Hong Kong movie, but imagine if IP Man had 6 movies and the 7th got released in NA.  If it did the numbers you mentioned, then it would be  a monster hit.  Worrying about how well a film will do in China after it has made about a billion dollars internationally without it, is silly.

If so, Donnie Yen & Jiang Wen probably weren't cast in SW8. From what I see, HLw blockbusters intend to add Chinese actors/elements in their movies. Their target is RMB. 

[terrestrial]

21 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

If so, Donnie Yen & Jiang Wen probably weren't cast in SW8. From what I see, HLw blockbusters intend to add Chinese actors/elements in their movies. Their target is RMB. 

I do agree that that is their future goal / goal for the future (and for a lot of movies already actual counting too), but I understood the post you answered to as being about the actual SW movie = the one without the obvious Chinese actor(s) ... included, the one that has made so much money already ww = to worry about that one does seem a little bit... not necessary, wouldn't you agree to that?

[MonstersandRoy]

Future Star Wars movies are hard to predict for China right now. Will audiences go out and buy dvds/stream previous films after the release of TFA to fully understand the Star Wars universe (are there dvd/streaming charts that show people taking an interest in previous Star Wars film at the moment?)? Will people dislike TFA enough not bother? Will the presence of local stars change it's fortunes? 

[TommyA10]

1 hour ago, Baumer said:

 

Well apparently there are lots of people who like Transformers movies, hence the huge grosses in the US and international markets.  And yes I'm aware of T4's smallish gross in the US, but the other two were giant hits.  So apparently plenty of people do like them.  I'd rather watch a Transformers film multiple times than have to sit through The Revenant twice.

Haven't watched the Revenant yet. Is it that boring?

[Agafin]

7 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

Haven't watched the Revenant yet. Is it that boring?

No it's not.

[peludo]

4 hours ago, Agafin said:

TFA's performance in China is downright embarassing. Remembers me of The Hobbit's run in Japan. At least, that sends a message to Disney that strong marketting can only get you so far if the audience doesn't like your product. I'm now lowering my (very early) prediction for Rogue One from $200 to $50 million.

I do not think it is embarrasing. Many of us here were predicting $150m for it before release (basically following the behaviour of the market and of course attending what experts in the market have been saying here during months). It is making 115-120, something that can be considered a decent amount. Can it be considered a disappointment? maybe, but not a shameful amount.

 

Not every WW blockbusters must make F7 or even JW-AoU figures. We can remember that, for example, when China was a very small market in early 00s, both Harry Potter and LOTR made more money than the SW prequels. Maybe it is not a very significant data but it can serve to find a pattern of tastes. What would had done today LOTR or HP in China? Well, DH2 did $60m in 2011 and Hobbit 3 did $125m just 1 year ago. Following that logic and the expansion of the market, I find the gross of SW7 in China quite logical.

 

IMHO, Rogue One could perfectly make more than SW7 in China.