China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Meg1.1b seems locked.

 

Rising to #1 on the 11th day of release, a record.

[Awesomer]

No guesses on Ant-Man and the Wasp?  What are presales like?

[a2k]

If Meg does $170 (1160-1165) in China and close to $135 Dom, then that's around +25% difference between the two markets. 

 

Had posted this a few days back:

On 8/12/2018 at 3:11 PM, a2k said:

Dom v China of Meg is an anomaly. Money left on the table? Needed a better release date I guess.

 

WB films this year,

Tomb $57 vs $80 ....+40%

RPO $137 vs $220 ... +60%

Rampage $99 vs $156 ... +57%

Meg $110 vs $105 ... -5% (using ~2.5x dom multi and ~2x China)

Looks much better now but still an anomaly:

Meg $170 vs $135 ... +26%

 

I hope it keeps on legging it in China for +40% (like Tomb Raider) over the expected dom ($135) and does close to $190.

 

edit: Also worth keeping in mind that TR dom under-performed a lot and Rampage was no great shakes dom (even though it did well) so that made it a little easier for China to show a big increase from dom. Meg is over-performing dom a lot and that makes it tougher for China to post a big increase in comparision.

Edited August 21, 2018 by a2k

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

If Meg does $170 (1160-1165) in China and close to $135 Dom, then that's around +25% difference between the two markets. 

 

Had posted this a few days back:

Looks much better now but still an anomaly:

Meg $170 vs $135 ... +26%

 

I hope it keeps on legging it in China for +40% (like Tomb Raider) over the expected dom ($135) and does close to $190.

 

edit: Also worth keeping in mind that TR dom under-performed a lot and Rampage was no great shakes dom (even though it did well) so that made it a little easier for China to show a big increase from dom. Meg is over-performing dom a lot and that makes it tougher for China to post a big increase in comparision.

I wish that IW would have followed the WB trend of this year, that 1B would have looked nice

[ZeeSoh]

16 hours ago, Awesomer said:

No guesses on Ant-Man and the Wasp?  What are presales like?

There exists a separate thread where presales are tracked. Here it is

 

[ZeeSoh]

Ant Man currently sits at a 7.5 rating in Douban. Its still early and and a lot of votes will come but here is where it stands right now amongst other SH movies

 

Logan - 8.3

Infinity War - 8.2

Guardians 2 - 8.0

Ant Man 1 - 7.6

Ant Man 2 - 7.5

Thor 3 - 7.4

SMH - 7.3

Wonder Woman - 7.1

Justice League - 6.5

Black Panther - 6.4

 

Douban ratings does not necessarily correlate to legs. Size of opening, Maoyan ratings and competition is far more important for that imo. 

[pepsa]

Good news for AM2's PS a 45% + jump happpening today. Better jump than BP.

 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

AM2 did a screening today. Early word is its WOM will be very good.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

2 minutes ago, firedeep said:

AM2 did a screening today. Early word is its WOM will be very good.

Cool. I just hope it increases in China enough so it can hit over $600M+ WW.

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

Good news for AM2's PS a 45% + jump happpening today. Better jump than BP.

 

Hoping for 70m OW

[Gavin Feng]

reactions from Shenzhen’s press screening sound pretty good.

[pepsa]

9 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Hoping for 70m OW

Would need a 480m OW (guessing you were talking in USD) for that, I would love that but I would keep your expectations in check.

For a 480m OW it needs something like this:

 

My PS guess: 39m

Fri: 140m (3.46 PS multi + MN)

Sat: 189m (35% jump)

Sun: 145m (23% drop)

 

OW:  474m = $69.2m OW

Still don't know if it can get a 3.5 PS multi, probably not I guess.

Sat jump might be bigger, sunday drop around 25% seems reasonable.

 

Atm I am thinking of a mid $60m OW.

[a2k]

How much is Meg expected to drop this weekend? Considering it did 36 Monday, I hope it can make it to 90-100 weekend:

32 Tue (-10%)

29 Wed (-10%)

24.5 Thu (-15%)

22 Fri (-10%)

33 Sat (+50%)

30 Sun (-10%)

= 85 (-60% or so)

 

EDIT: Tue was 33.4. Recalc with bigger Friday drop and bigger Sat bump,

33.4 Tue

30.0 Wed (-10%)

25.5 Thu (-15%)

20.5 Fri (-20%)

33.0 Sat (+60%)

30.0 Sun (-10%)

= 83.5 

 

Edited August 22, 2018 by a2k

[KeepItU25071906]

13 minutes ago, a2k said:

How much is Meg expected to drop this weekend? Considering it did 36 Monday, I hope it can make it to 90-100 weekend:

32 Tue (-10%)

 

33,5

[pepsa]

47 minutes ago, a2k said:

How much is Meg expected to drop this weekend? Considering it did 36 Monday, I hope it can make it to 90-100 weekend:

32 Tue (-10%)

29 Wed (-10%)

24.5 Thu (-15%)

22 Fri (-10%)

33 Sat (+50%)

30 Sun (-10%)

= 85 (-60% or so)

Bigger drop on Friday but I guess it will rebound on sat and sun with a bigger sat bump than 50%.

Atleast that is what I think. 

Edited August 22, 2018 by pepsa

[efialtes76]

51 minutes ago, a2k said:

How much is Meg expected to drop this weekend? Considering it did 36 Monday, I hope it can make it to 90-100 weekend:

32 Tue (-10%)

29 Wed (-10%)

24.5 Thu (-15%)

22 Fri (-10%)

33 Sat (+50%)

30 Sun (-10%)

= 85 (-60% or so)

Tuesday was 33.4m.

[Gavin Feng]

I think Meg could drop 70% on 3rd wknd. But $150M-plus lifetime gross is still going to happen.

[Awesomer]

7 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

There exists a separate thread where presales are tracked. Here it is 

 

Thanks ZeeSoh.  Haven't been on the site in a while and I remember presales always being talked about in this thread as well.  It makes sense that a new thread was made for that purpose.  Will check it out.

 

Thanks again.

[Awesomer]

4 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Cool. I just hope it increases in China enough so it can hit over $600M+ WW. 

I suspect it would only need $110m at most.  The rest of the world still has enough left to push the total - China to $490m+.

[Olive]

Thursday Estimates
The Meg 27.2M/934m, -12.6%
The Island  24.4M/1236m, -11.5%
Go Brother! 20.65M/217.7M, -11%

Ant-man 2 10.2M MN (SMH -9.9M)
Hotel Transylvania 3 9.1M/158.3m, -7.5%
Hello Mr. Billionaire 8.0M/2490M ,-3%