China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[cax16]

38 minutes ago, MrPink said:

What kind of finish is Spider Verse looking at?

 

[POTUS 2020]

36 minutes ago, boyamama said:

is january 1st, a good day for box-office too ????

as big as 31st usually

[boyamama]

3 minutes ago, POTUS said:

as big as 31st usually

wow if estimate for 31 dec is 57M yuan( $ 8,3 M),so january 1st will be around that number?...total $ 16-18 M .....for 2 days 

[boyamama]

.................1,8 BILLION......

[Olive]

[efialtes76]

Aquaman will make 60M on Monday. 

[Gavin Feng]

Just talking. After thinking about it for days. 

 

Why recent Indian films didn't "do well" in China?

 

After Dangal & Secret Superstar made huge money in China, more and more filmmakers & businessmen from both China & India have given upcoming Indian films higher expectations. But none of those titles could hit $50M, and most even failed to top ¥100M / $15M. People start to think why Indian films suddenly went wrong. 

 

 

Most(probably all) Indian film studios have no idea what Indian films are facing at this point, or they don't realize the embarrassed situation they are in. To be honest, this is not their fault, and even most Chinese film studios can't figure it out. But it's actually not difficult to understand why, people just need to look back on the whole things. And it will be able to be explained.

 

I personally want to summarize it in three words: Expectation, Acceptability, Demand.

 

 

Have a look at the opening performance of all those Indian films released in China, only two titles did make $10M-plus on opening weekend. Though Dangal ended with incredible $188M in China, but it actually debuted with only $12M on it's opening weekend. Secret Superstar has the best opening weekend performance of Indian films, and the number is $27M / ¥175M. Yes, most analysts & film studios would think it's good enough for Indian films, especially considering Indian films were doing far better than any other non-english films. This thought is really really so right, but it also causes people to misunderstand things about Indian film. I don't have a better example, so I'm going to say this: When it comes to Hollywood films, people always expected if it would make $50M-plus, $100M or even $200M on opening weekend. Why so high? Because we all know there are high expectations. When people hear a Hollywood film is going to release in China, the first thought comes to their mind is brilliant visual effect or high-budget or any element that can really make them feel exciting. Hollywood is a synonym of those words, and HLW probably is the only one which can make those incredible things come true. But if I say a Bollywood film is going to release in China, most Chinese will not have any feeling about it, because Bollywood, or Tollywood or Kollywood means nothing to them. They don't really know what things that Indian films can bring to them, and they don't have much interest on Indian films. Then, the expectations are low, and the openings can't be huge.

 

But low expectation doesn't mean Chinese will not accept it. Some Indian films still can survive after a low debut, and we all saw how incredible that Dangal did. So we know Chinese definitely can accept things from India, and they can accept many different cultures from rest of the world. The question is, what kind of film Chinese would accept, what they can't? It comes to why Dangal & Secret Superstar can be acceptable, and other can't make that great? We all know it's because Aamir Khan, but most don't know why. General audience in China started to have some good feeling on Indian films when 3 Idiots came. Before that, Chinese didn't have a good impression on Indian films. Many believed Indian films were boring because they always showed singing and dancing. So Indian films were even meaning something negative to most Chinese. This kind of thoughts are still existed today. But 3 Idiots make things feel better. China also have the same problems with India in some aspects, and recent Aamir Khan's films can always get the point. The story & main theme of 3 Idiots are so good & emotional that Chinese audience can response. So Chinese always have a special feeling on Aamir Khan. When PK came to Chinese theaters, more and more audience realized: wow, it's him, the star in 3 Idiots. From that moment, Aamir Khan means the whole Indian films to many Chinese. No Aamir Khan, they only remember singing & dancing for Indian films. That's why general people in China can't accept most Indian film. They don't have anything that can get people's responses. And then, you will understand why so many film studios don't know how to do marketing jobs for Indian movies but putting Aamir Khan's praises in their posters or trailers in China. 

 

Aamir Khan's name is not everything. It finally comes to demand. Maybe I can accept you, but it doesn't mean I really need you. We can see there were many good Indian films released in China with good contents, and WOM & reviews from general audience are also good. But they still can't make more than $50M lifetime gross. Why? I think Indian films studio should know it better than anyone else: because Chinese don't need it, at least they don't always need it. Local contents + HLW contents can satisfy them in most time. Baahubali & Thugs are something that HLW can offer to Chinese. If one day China can have power to make this kind of movies, HLW will also lose many market shares. People always want to see their own cultures. 

 

So back to the question: Why recent Indian films didn't "do well" in China? I think the most accurate answer is, they didn't do bad, they didn't go wrong, they didn't have any fault, those performances are what they deserve,  it's just that Dangal got something right, and Chinese can react to it. I think if those filmmakers & businessmen who want to make money in China only think why recent films didn't make good, they probably will never find the right way. If they can ask themselves why Dangal can make success, they will learn more. Aamir Khan is the reason(probably the only reason) that Chinese can accept some Indian films at this point. They really should spend more time on learning it if they want to make good in here.

 

My advice to those filmmakers & businessmen is, finding more ways to let Chinese audience accept Indian films firstly. You can't always expect Aamir Khan to save you. Higher acceptability means more films can survive after low openings. Secondly, establishing expectations. This will help them to build audience base. So they can get more chances to make big money, and they don't have to always try their luck. In the course of time, these movies will be part of audience's must-see movies. They will be demanding.

 

But don't misunderstand me. All these things are based on being themselves. I don't hope Hollywood or Indian film studios make movies for pleasing local audience and lose their own things. And Chinese never need foreign films to please themselves. They will be very happy if they can see more different things.

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, Olive said:

Sunday Estimates 

Kill Mobile - 86.3M / 168.5M,+35%
AQM - 43.2M / 1798M,+131%
Mo Jin the Worm Valley - 34.1M / 98.74M, -47%
Spider-Verse - 33.7M / 314M, +142%
The Morning After - 11.65M / 33.85M, -48%
Thugs - 11.1M /32.44M _+3%

 

Monday predictions

Long Day's Journey Into Night 304M OD

Kill Mobile 116M

AQM - 57.7M

Spider-verse  42.8M

LDJ PS at 163m.  I wonder if it will only do 1.5x PS- 245m. 

IF AQ can maintain its PSm from Sun then 58m will be the number

Edited December 30, 2018 by POTUS

[Premium George]

Gavin, don't post that on twitter. Other actors' fans will start fighting that their star is better than Aamir. It's kinda like K-pop, but aamir fans are less enthusiastic than other fandoms.

Great post, and aamir seriously missed a beat there. 

[Olive]

41 minutes ago, POTUS said:

LDJ PS at 163m.  I wonder if it will only do 1.5x PS- 245m. 

IF AQ can maintain its PSm from Sun then 58m will be the number

WOM is disastrous from midnights, under 6.0 maoyan incoming, will fade away soon.

[Gavin Feng]

35 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Gavin, don't post that on twitter. Other actors' fans will start fighting that their star is better than Aamir. It's kinda like K-pop, but aamir fans are less enthusiastic than other fandoms.

Great post, and aamir seriously missed a beat there. 

I don't really care about fan war even attacks come to me.

[Stewart]

@Gavin Feng @Olive What are the expectations of CNY releases for 2019? Can any of them challenge ¥3B or even approach Wolf Warriors 2?

[Olive]

1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

@Gavin Feng @Olive What are the expectations of CNY releases for 2019? Can any of them challenge ¥3B or even approach Wolf Warriors 2?

Crazy Alien and  The Wandering Earth will do 4-5B if good.

And another 3-4 movies over 1B

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, Olive said:

Crazy Alien and  The Wandering Earth will do 4-5B if good.

And another 3-4 movies over 1B

Cool. Will be an interesting time to watch, especially when presales start. Are any of them sequels?

[Stewart]

double post, forum issues on mobile

 

Edited December 30, 2018 by feasby007

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, Olive said:

WOM is disastrous from midnights, under 6.0 maoyan incoming, will fade away soon.

That is what happens if you misleading audiences into thinking a complex art house film is a straightforward romance. Either way, I think the distributors succeeded either way and the movie should be able to get a profit.

[POTUS 2020]

11 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

That is what happens if you misleading audiences into thinking a complex art house film is a straightforward romance. Either way, I think the distributors succeeded either way and the movie should be able to get a profit.

LDJ may fall short of 250m, 1.5 PSm.  It will be down 80-90% tomorrow.  3.7 rating, lowest I've ever seen. Total will be less than 1.5x OD.  If we count the first 3 days as an OW, the OWm may be just 1.1x, 

 

Aq will reach mid 50s today.  PS looks light tomorrow for all movies but last Jan 1 held flat or bumped for well rated movies, not sure if they will stay flat. AQ shows are increasing by 50% though to 14.1%. I put 45m to be conservative, it could bump.

 

$300m on the table if it can bump 40% on Friday against BBee opening. 

Spidey heading to $65-70m, 40% over the average toon

 

Aq					XR 6.89	Vm				XR 6.94	IW				XR 6.35	Aq vs	Aq vs
Day	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot	Vm	IW
Fri	157			166	24	223			239	34	387			447	70	-73	-281
Sat	266	69.6%		432	63	303	35.9%		542	78	493	27.5%		940	148	-111	-509
Sun	220	-17.0%		652	95	224	-26.1%		766	110	332	-32.8%		1272	200	-114	-620
Mon	89	-59.5%		741	108	90	-59.8%		856	123	109	-67.1%		1381	217	-115	-639
Tues	74	-17.5%		815	119	80	-11.1%		936	135	81	-25.7%		1462	230	-121	-647
Wed	62	-15.9%		877	128	69	-13.8%		1005	145	65	-20.0%		1526	240	-128	-650
Thur	55	-11.5%		931	136	62	-10.1%		1067	154	53	-19.0%		1579	249	-136	-647
Fri	86	57.5%	-44.9%	1018	148	85	37.1%	-61.9%	1152	166	72	36.4%	-81.5%	1650	260	-134	-633
Sat	164	90.4%	-38.1%	1182	172	162	90.6%	-46.5%	1314	189	142	98.2%	-71.2%	1792	282	-132	-610
Sun	124	-24.5%	-43.7%	1306	190	109	-32.7%	-51.3%	1423	205	132	-7.0%	-60.2%	1924	303	-117	-618
Mon	41.5	-66.5%	-53.5%	1348	196	35.6	-67.3%	-60.4%	1459	210	31.6	-76.1%	-71.0%	1956	308	-111	-608
Tue	36.5	-12.0%	-50.4%	1384	200.9	30.5	-14.3%	-61.9%	1489	215	25.2	-20.3%	-68.9%	1981	312	-105	-597
Wed	33	-9.6%	-46.7%	1417	205.7	26.6	-12.8%	-61.4%	1516	218	21.1	-16.3%	-67.4%	2002	315	-99	-585
Thu	30	-9.1%	-45.3%	1447	210.0	23.7	-10.9%	-61.8%	1539	222	18.6	-11.8%	-64.6%	2021	318	-92	-574
Fri	33.4	11.3%	-61.3%	1480	215	31.1	31.2%	-63.4%	1571	226	23.1	24.2%	-67.7%	2044	322	-90	-564
Sat	70	109.6%	-57.4%	1550	225	61.5	97.7%	-62.0%	1632	235	50.8	119.9%	-64.2%	2095	330	-82	-544
Sun	58.2	-16.9%	-53.1%	1609	233	43.2	-29.8%	-60.4%	1675	241	39.9	-21.5%	-69.8%	2135	336	-67	-526
Xeve	36	-38.1%	-13.3%	1645	239	14.4	-66.7%	-59.6%	1690	243	12.0	-69.9%	-62.0%	2147	338	-45	-502
Xday	35.6	-1.1%	-2.5%	1680	244	13.0	-9.7%	-57.4%	1703	245	11.1	-7.5%	-56.0%	2158	340	-22	-478
Wed	19.5	-45.2%	-40.9%	1700	247	12.0	-7.7%	-54.9%	1715	247	10.5	-5.9%	-50.5%	2168	341	-15	-468
Thu	17.5	-10.3%	-41.7%	1717	249	11.3	-5.8%	-52.3%	1726	249	12.1	15.8%	-34.9%	2180	343	-9	-463
Fri	16.42	-6.2%	-50.8%	1734	252	18.1	60.2%	-41.8%	1744	251	35.2	190.9%	52.4%	2215	349	-10	-482
Sat	18.75	14.2%	-73.2%	1752	254	40.0	121.0%	-35.0%	1784	257	31.6	-10.2%	-37.8%	2247	354	-32	-495
Sun	43.4	131.5%	-25.4%	1796	261	27.5	-31.3%	-36.3%	1812	261	23.2	-26.6%	-41.9%	2270	358	-16	-474
NYE	55	26.7%	52.8%	1851	269	9.3	-66.2%	-35.4%	1821	262	7.8	-66.4%	-35.0%	2278	359	30	-427
NYD	45	-18.2%	26.4%	1896	275	8.2	-11.8%	-36.9%	1829	264	8.5	9.0%	-23.4%	2287	360	67	-391
Wed	10	-77.8%	-48.7%	1906	277	7.8	-4.9%	-35.0%	1837	265	8.9	4.1%	-15.3%	2295	361	69	-390
Thu	9	-10.0%	-48.6%	1915	278	7.3	-6.4%	-35.4%	1844	266	7.8	-11.9%	-35.5%	2303	363	71	-388
BB od	11	22.2%	-33.0%	1926	280	2.1	-71.2%	-88.4%	1846	266	8.5	9.5%	-75.7%	2312	364	80	-386
Sat	23	109.1%	22.7%	1949	283	4.7	123.8%	-88.3%	1851	267	18.4	115.5%	-41.8%	2330	367	98	-381
Sun	19	-17.4%	-56.2%	1968	286	3.7	-21.3%	-86.5%	1855	267	15.5	-15.8%	-33.2%	2346	369	113	-378
				2033	295.1				1870	269.5				2390	376	163	-357

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by POTUS

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm hoping for that 40% Friday bump then.

[pepsa]

Another great day for AQM ! 

China, mexico, brazil and now DOM. This move has insane preformances all over the board. 

[boyamama]

36 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Another great day for AQM ! 

China, mexico, brazil and now DOM. This move has insane preformances all over the board. 

yes..from "ocean to ocean"....................they united the nations for the billion dollar .............

Edited December 31, 2018 by boyamama