China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[fmpro]

10 minutes ago, POTUS said:

BBee PS heading to 26-27m. probably a 90m OD, 290m/$42m OW

They gave it 51% of shows, about the same as Aq and Vm which opened 2 and 3 times larger. I thought they would give it just 40% like FB2.

 

Aq and SV losing 2/3s of their shows to 5.4% and 3.4%.  PS look small and a drop happening but their shows were listed late.

Lets see WOM/Maoyan score. I still fell it could come closer to 100 mill yuan OD and 50 mill $ OW. Lets see what happens

[fmpro]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Where’s Spider Verse ending?

425-430 mill yuan. Will be easier to say more after friday number

[reddevil19]

18 minutes ago, POTUS said:

BBee PS heading to 26-27m. probably a 90m OD, 290m/$42m OW

They gave it 51% of shows, about the same as Aq and Vm which opened 2 and 3 times larger. I thought they would give it just 40% like FB2.

 

Aq and SV losing 2/3s of their shows to 5.4% and 3.4%.  PS look small and a drop happening but their shows were listed late.

Is there a chance for AQM and ITSV to regain some screens if BB's OD is that small, then?

[MaxAggressor]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-box-office-total-revenue-2018-1172725

 

Quote

 

China's movie box office revenue grew 9 percent to $8.9 billion (RMB 60.98 billion) in 2018.

 

The expansion would be considered impressive in most markets, but it represents an ongoing slowdown for China, the world's second-largest film territory and a continual source of growth for Hollywood for the better part of a decade.

 

Chinese state media reported that box office revenue growth was 13.5 percent in 2017, with this year marking only a modest decline. As with everything related to government statistics in China, the complete picture is somewhat murkier, however.

 

Quote

 

Over the past three years, drawing conclusions about China's box office growth has been complicated by Beijing's decision to include new service fees in official revenue totals.

 

In 2016, China's box-office experienced a shock correction, with growth plummeting to just 3.7 percent from a roaring 48 percent rate in 2015. Perhaps in response, at the start of 2017, China's media regulator quietly began including service fees charged by online ticketing companies when reporting box-office figures. Given that nearly 90 percent of all film tickets are sold over such platforms in China, including the fees represented an instant jolt to official box office tallies.

 

The move was somewhat controversial, though, as the service fee revenue goes to technology companies rather than entities traditionally associated with the film industry, like studios, distributors and theater chains. Many viewed the move as an effort to juice official growth numbers.

 

At the end of 2017, state regulators included the fees in the official full-year box office total (RMB 55.9 billion, or $8.6 billion at exchange rates at the time) but subtracted it from the growth rate, which resulted in a reported expansion of 13.45 percent rather than 22.3 percent (including the fees).

 

For 2018, regulators included the fees for calculating both the full-year box office total and overall growth rate. They did not mention that the rate used for 2017 did not include the fees, however, presenting this year's 9 percent growth rate as a year-on-year comparison to the 13.5 percent rate for last year (without fees) rather than 22.3 percent (including the fees).

 

The 2017 decision to include the online service fees created unavoidable distortion, and perhaps it's unsurprising that Beijing decided to bend the numbers to its benefit, suggesting a modest recovery in 2017 — rather than another spike — followed by a softer decline in 2018. Notably, though, no caveats or asterisks have accompanied any of the official box-office reporting from Beijing state media.

 

Quote

 

However it's framed, 2018 was a strong year for many of China's biggest domestic film studios though. Chinese-made films claimed 62.2 percent of total ticket sales in 2018, a big jump from the local industry's 53.8 percent share last year.

 

A breakdown of revenue for U.S. film imports versus movie product from other international territories wasn't included in the official state data released thus far, but the Hollywood majors are expected to have logged a significant decline in the Middle Kingdom this year. According to early reporting from regional box-office tracker Artisan Gateway, revenue from U.S. studio films released through China's quota system was down 16.5 percent in late December. The slide is all the more notable given that the North American box office soared to an all-time record total of $11.9 billion in 2018 — suggesting product quality alone can't explain the downturn in China.

 

Quote

Back in 2013, China overtook Japan to become the world's second-biggest theatrical film market. Since then, analysts have continually revised their forecasts for when the Middle Kingdom will unseat North America as the world-wide number one. During China's roaring industry growth of 2014 and 2015, the date was often pegged at 2017 or 2018. Lately, most research firms place the occasion much further out — a November report from Ampere Analysis scheduled China's ascendance for 2022. 

 

[Gavin Feng]

￥5.6M for BBB. Lowest since TF3

[MrFanaticGuy34]

8 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

￥5.6M for BBB. Lowest since TF3

How does it compare to the first two TF-films?

[Gavin Feng]

6 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

How does it compare to the first two TF-films?

Meaningless comparison. Chinese film market was much smaller at that time.

[reddevil19]

6 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

How does it compare to the first two TF-films?

Wouldn't be relevant, as the box office boom came after. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Meaningless comparison. Chinese film market was much smaller at that time.

Fair enough. Though the first one is the lowest grosser there, so BB’s numbers aren’t too pathetic.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Wouldn't be relevant, as the box office boom came after. 

True. Though we shouldn’t take BB’s numbers as terrible...yet. Let’s see how it goes for the film’s run before making conclusions.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Fair enough. Though the first one is the lowest grosser there, so BB’s numbers aren’t too pathetic.

Well, again, the first one's numbers are meaningless. The film may as well have opened 4 decades ago, instead of just one decade, for all the good the comparison does us. It's akin to saying Halle Berry's Catwoman's numbers aren't pathetic cause it's better than Batman '66... BB's numbers aren't necessarily pathetic, depending on the reception. But they are low for one of the biggest franchises in China, after the market expansion to what it is now...

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by reddevil19

[MrFanaticGuy34]

4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Wouldn't be relevant, as the box office boom came after. 

True. Though we shouldn’t take BB’s numbers as terrible...yet. Let’s see how it goes for the film’s run before making conclusions.

[Wotad]

3 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

True. Though we shouldn’t take BB’s numbers as terrible...yet. Let’s see how it goes for the film’s run before making conclusions.

 

even if it does 100m that is a terrible result for a transformers film in China.

[efialtes76]

7.5 at Douban for Bumblebee

 

[boyamama]

Just now, efialtes76 said:

7.5 at Douban for Bumblebee

 

wow that will result bad WOM.....

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

7.5 at Douban for Bumblebee

 

9.0 on Taopiaopiao.

[KP1025]

2 minutes ago, boyamama said:

wow that will result bad WOM.....

 

Douban score doesn't really matter as much as the Maoyan score for WOM among GA. Aquaman is only 7.8 on Douban but 9.4 on Maoyan.

[boyamama]

Just now, KP1025 said:

 

Douban score doesn't really matter as much as the Maoyan score for WOM among GA. Aquaman is only 7.8 on Douban but 9.4 on Maoyan.

but i remember that's not the rating when it's released....

[KP1025]

12 minutes ago, boyamama said:

but i remember that's not the rating when it's released....

Aquaman started with 8.4 on Douban, 9.5 on Taopiaopiao, and 9.6 on Maoyan after midnight showings. The Maoyan score usually follows Taopiaopiao quite closely, so Bumblebee is likely going to start with an early Maoyan score also around 9.0. That's indicative of pretty good WOM, but it won't break out in a big way like Venom or Aquaman.

Edited January 3, 2019 by KP1025

[POTUS 2020]

6 hours ago, MaxAggressor said:

During China's roaring industry growth of 2014 and 2015, the date was often pegged at 2017 or 2018. Lately, most research firms place the occasion much further out — a November report from Ampere Analysis scheduled China's ascendance for 2022. 

This forum was well aware in 2015 that the slow down could happen and passing Domestic would be beyond 2020 

On 5/19/2015 at 7:02 AM, POTUS said:

There is a lot of hype that China will pass domestic in the near future. I disagree, as I have posted a few times. To stop sounding like a broken record to all those that keep stating the obvious apparent; a huge continuous trend with no end in sight, I'm looking for the blindside and the trend to break suddenly for numerous reasons. Everyone can voice their opinions here as will I.

 

My reasons that it will be a lot longer than people think:

Any of these can/will happen. I'm not saying all will, but one or more combined will stifle the growth in the near and/or distant future.

 

Global financial/real estate crisis' happen every 7 to 10 years. Its been 6 years since the meltdown. Another will be coming soon and will effect China. China has recovered well from the last two, 2001 and 2009 but they are bigger than ever and as they say the harder it will fall.

Shanghai Index peaked two months after this post above 5000 and has dropped 50% since

 

Most economies that have huge growth for 20 years hit a wall like Japan in 89

Growth has slowed since 2015

 

Movies are novelty to most still. That will wane for many as it has in Japan and other mature markets, and 3d has globally

Audiences are getting pickier and rejecting films as bad WoM spreads rapidly

 

Even if GDP passes the US in a few years it will be spread out over 4x as many people. Per capita GDP will still be lower than most major nations.

Like India, they are selling more tickets than domestic now but the lower GDPpc results in the ATP at close to 50% lower than Dom and declining

 

More than half of the population subsist or make minimum wage. Would you pay a days wage to go see a movie? That leaves a potential movie going population of less than 500 million people with less disposable income than dom

Theater expansion has continued at at a rapid rate but in the third and fourth tier cities at lower ticket prices and the pta revenue is dropping.  

 

The Yuan is pegged to the dollar but the government has let the dollar slip a little bit over the years. The BO has to overcome future XR declines.  

The Yuan has dropped 11% from 6.2 to 6.9 to the dollar.  That's $1.3B more in ticket sales CBO needs to surpass domestic

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by POTUS