China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[A Marvel Fanboy]

8 hours ago, trevorlinden said:

Any guesses for the number 1 movie over CNY 2020?  Legend of Deification (Chinese: 姜子牙) based on the success of Ne Zha?

It has great hype due to Ne Zha but final box office comes down to WOM. 

 

Really hard to predict which one will be CNY champion.

[POTUS 2020]

No movies listed for CNY PS on Maoyan.  Maybe its blacked out for foreign IPs?  Anyone know if PS have begun?

[stephanos13]

What do you think The Farewell will do in China?

[Gavin Feng]

Pre-sale of CNY movies was supposed to open on Jan.6 yesterday. But some distributors thought Detective Chinatown 3, which is the most anticipated local movie of this period even the whole year with highest want-to-see number on ticket site, would be the biggest winner with huge showtimes & strong pre-sale performance if the pre-sale start so soon. So these people suggested Film Bureau to push the pre-sale back to Jan.17 with the reason of "prevent unfair competition". Film Bureau thought it is not quite unreasonable and agreed. And now, DC3 will lose its advantages.

 

Every marketing team and filmmakers said in public that they will be nice when they compete with each other, but we all know there is no difference between this one & the "Awards season" in western world.

[Gavin Feng]

10 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

What do you think The Farewell will do in China?

another crazy rich asians

[TigerPaw]

Both IpMan4 and SwoS has will extend their play for 1 month, and will end on 19Feb and 12Feb respectively.

Both will almost definitely surpass the CNY1.0bn mark; but their number of showtimes during CNY should be quite pathetic。

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

Pre-sale of CNY movies was supposed to open on Jan.6 yesterday. But some distributors thought Detective Chinatown 3, which is the most anticipated local movie of this period even the whole year with highest want-to-see number on ticket site, would be the biggest winner with huge showtimes & strong pre-sale performance if the pre-sale start so soon. So these people suggested Film Bureau to push the pre-sale back to Jan.17 with the reason of "prevent unfair competition". Film Bureau thought it is not quite unreasonable and agreed. And now, DC3 will lose its advantages.

 

Every marketing team and filmmakers said in public that they will be nice when they compete with each other, but we all know there is no difference between this one & the "Awards season" in western world.

Thanks for the explanation, Gavin. Many of us are scratching our heads.

 

I think there will be limited impact, I remember that WW2 also started presales  late. Now it just makes the best WoM movie have higher chance of winning.

 

i got a feeling Jackie Chan’s vanguard will flop again; and he will stop trying to enter into CNY.

[Gavin Feng]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

Thanks for the explanation, Gavin. Many of us are scratching our heads.

 

I think there will be limited impact, I remember that WW2 also started presales  late. Now it just makes the best WoM movie have higher chance of winning.

 

i got a feeling Jackie Chan’s vanguard will flop again; and he will stop trying to enter into CNY.

The problem is Detective Chinatown 3 probably won’t be the best in CNY. In other words, if it can’t have enough time to sell tickets before opening, it will lose daily box office more quick. Yes, those better movies deserve better performances. But I must say it’s quite smart move to those studios.

[TigerPaw]

2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

The problem is Detective Chinatown 3 probably won’t be the best in CNY. In other words, if it can’t have enough time to sell tickets before opening, it will lose daily box office more quick. Yes, those better movies deserve better performances. But I must say it’s quite smart move to those studios.

Why would Wanda agree with this? Quite crazy, the potential loss could be in millions USD.

A potentially RMB 3bn film might potentially only earn RMB 1bn if Maoyan score is below 8.5...

 

[Gavin Feng]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

Why would Wanda agree with this? Quite crazy, the potential loss could be in millions USD.

A potentially RMB 3bn film might potentially only earn RMB 1bn if Maoyan score is below 8.5...

 

Wanda didn't agree. But 3 out of 6 distributors wanted that. 

 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

 The Farewell will be lucky to make a quarter of CRA.

[LPLC]

Do you think one day, a China movie or A Hollywood movie in China will reach $1B ? or 200M admissions ?

[KP1025]

22 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Do you think one day, a China movie or A Hollywood movie in China will reach $1B ? or 200M admissions ?

 

Yes. It's just a matter of time.

[Somoset]

On 1/4/2020 at 5:58 AM, POTUS 2020 said:

it is opening on CNY in the US, interesting

Last CNY was close to flat from 2018. If this CNY doesn't increase with the extra screens they could play Shang Chi next year as there will be room.

 

They should start PS for CNY soon.  20 days out

Last years CNY/OD was 1.45b/$215m

 

 

I'm seeing some forecast saying CNY will be up 35% from last year? is this super unrealistic? 

[Mau]

4 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 

Yes. It's just a matter of time.

I think one day a chinese movie will break top 10 all time with 90% of the money made in china

[POTUS 2020]

9 hours ago, Somoset said:

I'm seeing some forecast saying CNY will be up 35% from last year? is this super unrealistic? 

Since last year was flat and screens up 40% since 2 years ago, 35% boost is possible if at least three movie are well received.

Edited January 9, 2020 by POTUS 2020

[TigerPaw]

IpMan4 and SwoS both passed CNY1.0bn. Great performance for both.

[charlie Jatinder]

No major breakout from India last year sans Andhadhun which did okay $45mn. Laal Singh Chadha if manage day and date release and appreciation as good as Forrest Gump may do bonkers, might even be biggest foreign film of 2020.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Jedi Jat

[XXR vs XXR]

On 1/8/2020 at 3:31 PM, LPLC said:

Do you think one day, a China movie or A Hollywood movie in China will reach $1B ? or 200M admissions ?

 

"One day" is a long time. A billion is certain at some point, just like it is domestically, and 200M admissions is likely in China unless something replaces the theater experience in the next decade and it starts to decline. 

On 1/8/2020 at 8:53 PM, Mau said:

I think one day a chinese movie will break top 10 all time with 90% of the money made in china

 

Not sure about this. If it happened in 2020, it would require a film to make over $1.25 billion in China (and that's assuming nothing else gets into the top 10 in 2020.) If we look at the global turnover of the top 10, 8 of them have occurred since 2012. It's likely by 2025 it will take over $2 billion to get into the top 10. 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Not sure about this. If it happened in 2020, it would require a film to make over $1.25 billion in China (and that's assuming nothing else gets into the top 10 in 2020.) If we look at the global turnover of the top 10, 8 of them have occurred since 2012. It's likely by 2025 it will take over $2 billion to get into the top 10.

Or China ER drop to ¥4~$1.

 

A ¥7B grosser will be $1.75Bn. Although it is quite likely that admits of $1.75B grosser are somewhat close to ¥7-8B grosser.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Jedi Jat