Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[riczhang]

People expecting this to win 11 Oscars are idiots.Good holiday legs is enough for this to win the holiday season.

No one ever expected it to.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

There's been surprisingly little meltdowns for this big of a disaster.

Maybe LOTR fans are a bit more stable than other groups?

[Sims]

Maybe because the movies that score really high tend to have good legs, and the ones that score terrible tend not to?

Have we ever done a systematic analysis of this? Because as far as I can tell there is zero correlation.

[kayumanggi]

Congratulations by the way to Sony. WB is not gonna win this year.

[Shawn Robbins]

Rth is on this thread!

Edited December 15, 2012 by ShawnMR

[riczhang]

Have we ever done a systematic analysis of this? Because as far as I can tell there is zero correlation.

The terrible part is true 100% of the time, but the good score part isn't. Films that've found their niche like Twilight do well on cinemascore but still have shit legs.Kids films you can get a more accurate gauge with the cinemascore. A- is considered kinda bad and anything less means that your movie was probably shit. Kids films generally need an A cinemascore for good legs. Edited December 15, 2012 by riczhang

[Plain Old Tele]

Well, I'm a big LOTR loonie so I might as well own up that it's been a fairly disappointing day in terms of the numbers. Legs should be decent (everywhere I check people seem really happy, except for here), but all that means is a solid shot at $300m.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Congratulations by the way to Sony. WB is not gonna win this year.

Yeah, and some film I liked this year was a huge part of that. Can't really recall the name of it at the moment though...

[FTF]

There's been surprisingly little meltdowns for this big of a disaster.

Because most of us aren't crazy fanboys and understand this isn't a big disaster. (or that an OD of $35-38m is never enough to warrant stating a movie is a big disaster). Edited December 15, 2012 by FTF

[Noctis]

You're my favorite Ringer, Tele.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

The terrible part is true 100% of the time, but the good score part isn't. Films that've found their niche like Twilight do well on cinemascore but still have shit legs.Kids films you can get a more accurate gauge with the cinemascore. A- is considered kinda bad and anything less means that your movie was probably shit.

Cause Twilight is a fans drawing movie

[Plain Old Tele]

Btw, I just checked the parallel universe and Nikki means $36m NOT including midnights. So over there it's a massive hit.

[MovieMan89]

Have we ever done a systematic analysis of this? Because as far as I can tell there is zero correlation.

Take a look at this list of movies that got an A+:http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/15-movies-made-grade-a-222653#15All of them had very good legs, except for Noctis' beloved Potter that is! :lol:So yeah I'd say it's been historically a great indicator of legs for A and A+ movies. And most movies that score C or lower bomb.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

%20http://i.chzbgr.com/completestore/2010/8/8/f7cc6001-d3af-4896-b749-42b142ee21f5.jpg

Pic wouldn't come up for me...soz I edit the supreme commander's postz and it still not workz. Edited December 15, 2012 by Accursed Arachnid!™

[riczhang]

Cause Twilight is a fans drawing movie

That's what I said. Twilight's found its niche.

[Plain Old Tele]

You're my favorite Ringer, Tele.

Is that like being the top cockroach on the garbage heap?

[keysersoze123]

FYI on cinemascore.http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/why-cinemascore-matters-box-office-225563Anyway cinemascore for franchise movies are useless as fans make majority of OD audience(unless even they hate it then it will have horrible legs). But for original non franchise flicks we can use cinemascore as the gauge to predict legs.

[Derpity]

Btw, I just checked the parallel universe and Nikki means $36m NOT including midnights. So over there it's a massive hit.

Yes but she only has it doing 65m for the weekend in that universe, a 1.33 multiplier.

[Fake]

What did Fake predict? I predicted 88m and even I am probably going to be over by a substantial amount.

I had it at 80-85M for a long time, below Skyfall's.http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/4953-the-hobbit-auj-under-rotk-ww-club/page__view__findpost__p__419475 But changed it to 95m after the first reactions were very positive and ShawnMR said his tracking suggest TDKR-level opening.Changed it back to 85m when RT rating slipped below 70%.

[Noctis]

CoS on that list immediately disqualifies its effectiveness.