filmscholar Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Let me answer some quotes about a few sentences of my post. Some of you guys are focusing on it me saying the audiences "Liked" it when talking about GG, I'm talking about OD since that what this thread is about. I never said Gatsby had spectacular WOM, I said the Critics were mixed on it but the audience seem to be responding positively to it based on OD and reviews online. Me saying IM3 WOM is mixed doesn't mean I'm saying WOM is bad. "Prometheus" WOM was also mixed and had close to the same numbers as Iron man critically. So "Mixed" isn't saying it's bad. It's saying it's good but not great. It's that there are a segment of people who didn't feel the film was that great. It's drops so far to me are only OK but it is still early. The Dark Shadows/Avengers comparison is only in that it and Gatsby/IM3 was coming off a film that had a record breaking weekend. 2nd Highest OW ever isn't a record but it's still a very huge opening. So that's where the comparison is. Also Johnny Deep and Burton are a huge team so it's not that far out there. I agree Maybe Gatsby would of done better against The Avengers but that's a hypothetical. And for the record when I said "Giving it a run for the weekend" I'm talking about the fact it's neck and neck on Friday. I know IM3 is going to win but that Friday-Friday drop is concerning with the competition it has coming in the next 3 weeks. That Friday was similar to IM2 and SM3 Friday To Friday drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 (edited) It opened 46M highet with 3D. And it is losing its audience at a rate proportional to IM2. Therefore the conclusion is that the WOM is on par. A Bigger audience (probably helped by TA) does not demonstrate better WOM if it is losing its audience proportional to a smaller initial group. Not really. If you open 46M higher than drop at the same rate, it means WOM is better not worse or on par. Look at TA it made 3 times it's OW while TDK made 3.37. WOM on both were about the same, bigger you open harder it is to get a strong multiplier. If IM3 gets the same multiplier as IM2 than WOM is better no question about it. Edited May 11, 2013 by druv10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Gatsby has a very good chance at doing 50m based on this number. People comparing it to Magic Mike forget that Magic Mike was released at the end of June so it's OD business was spread throughout the day versus Gatsby who had to depend mostly on night shows. That should help it maintain a better drop. Agreed. The big problem with Gatsby is the only 2D screen count. It only has like six 2D shows today by me, and I go to a major theater. And where I'm from, alot of people would almost rather skip the movie (almost any movie, not just Gatsby) entirely than have to see it in 3D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 IM2 competition... 2nd weekend 36 million opener 3rd weekend 70 million opener 4th weekend two 35 million openers Im3 2nd weekend: 50+ million opener 3rd weekend: 100+ million opener 4th weekend: 100 and 70+ million opener. No. Not this weekend. Gatsby's demographic is fundamentally different from IM3's demographic. Neither movie is big enough to reach a saturation point in the market that will have a significant effect on the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 I know IM3 is going to win but that Friday-Friday drop is concerning with the competition it has coming in the next 3 weeks. That Friday was similar to IM2 and SM3 Friday To Friday drop. Considering its performance over the weekdays, the Friday Performance is actually pretty good also it fell 70% against a Friday including previews. A new trend you will see due to the previews, 2nd weekend drops will be harsher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 My God, you guys with the IM3 WOM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godzilla Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Big films like Im3 don't get such crazy drops ever! ^^^^^ I cant ever remember a mega blockbuster film falling 60-70+% in its 3rd or 4th weekend Considering ST opens on Thursday Im3 will likely fall around 50-55% at most next weekend. If IM3 released with IM2 release schedule, you dont think IM3 would have better legs? IM2 competition...2nd weekend 36 million opener3rd weekend 70 million opener4th weekend two 35 million openers Im3 2nd weekend: 50+ million opener3rd weekend: 100+ million opener 4th weekend: 100 and 70+ million opener.How can you not be predicting a big drop during Memorial Weekend?!?! Makes no sense. FF6 could do 120M+ and Hangover can do 80M+ in like 4-5 days. And family audience will have an animated film, Epic. Too many big movies released in a span of 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 50M. Hot dayum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Spider Man 3 fell only 37% over its 4-day with a film generating 175 million from its 4-day adjusted and another film making 70 million over the 4-day. It will fall hard compared to past films but its not falling 50% over the 4-days lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Not really. If you open 46M higher than drop at the same rate, it means WOM is better not worse or on par. Look at TA it made 3 times it's OW while TDK made 3.37. WOM on both were about the same, bigger you open harder it is to get a strong multiplier. If If IM3 gets the same multiplier as IM2 than WOM is better no question about it. Yes, frontloading gets worse and worse each year. So even if it had a similar multiplier to SM3 for instance, it would be an indicator of better WOM than SM3. If SM3 came out today, it would have a 2.0 or worse. IM3 faces a lot stiffer competition than IM2 did and frontloading is worse in 2013 than 2010, so if it matches that multiplier it would be a pretty solid result. $425m would be a pretty good total. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Agreed. The big problem with Gatsby is the only 2D screen count. It only has like six 2D shows today by me, and I go to a major theater. And where I'm from, alot of people would almost rather skip the movie (almost any movie, not just Gatsby) entirely than have to see it in 3D. Yeah I mentioned last night that IM3 was outperforming Gatsby slightly at my theater but Gatsby was averaging more tickets per showtime. Gatsby only has 7 2D and 4 3D showtimes while IM3 has 15 2D shows and 14 3D shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidey Freak Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 I don't really think Dark Shadows/Gatsby comparison is right. GA were already let unimpressed by Depp in Pirates 4, and reaction for last Burton/Depp offering, AiW, was mixed. DS didn't seem all that exciting from the trailers too. Gatsby OTOH stars Leo, fresh off Inception/Django mega popularity and the book is one of the most popular American classics. Plus, Baz movie trailers are always neat and stylish. Gatsby overperforming shouldn't be used as a gauge for IM3 WOM at all. Leo is on a roll and GG capitalized on that nicely. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Yeah I mentioned last night that IM3 was outperforming Gatsby slightly at my theater but Gatsby was averaging more tickets per showtime. Gatsby only has 7 2D and 4 3D showtimes while IM3 has 15 2D shows and 14 3D shows. And this is what will hurt IM3 in coming weeks. It has an insane screen/show count right now, but that is going to drastically change when Star Trek shows up, then Hangover/Fast 6, then After Earth, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godzilla Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Spider Man 3 fell only 37% over its 4-day with a film generating 175 million from its 4-day adjusted and another film making 70 million over the 4-day. It will fall hard compared to past films but its not falling 50% over the 4-days lolzFF6 can cross 120M OW, Star Trek - 110M+ in 4 days, Hangover 3 - 80M+ in 4 days and Epic can do 40M+ OW. I think it'll keep the 400M away from IM3. Personally I think IM3 will gross around 390-395M, which is still fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 People are still doubting IM3 will pass 400m? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandrew Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 I haven't read the other pages yet, I saw on Mojo IM3 couldn't crack $20M, is there a meltdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 FF6 can cross 120M OW, Star Trek - 110M+ in 4 days, Hangover 3 - 80M+ in 4 days and Epic can do 40M+ OW. I think it'll keep the 400M away from IM3. Personally I think IM3 will gross around 390-395M, which is still fantastic. If it gets to 390-395M it'll be crossing 400M. Disney isn't stupid enough to just let it die, they'll steal some gross of some other movie and tack it on here to push it past 400M. (Or they could just keep it in theatres for ages and ages and ages) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 I haven't read the other pages yet, I saw on Mojo IM3 couldn't crack $20M, is there a meltdown? There shouldn't have been, IM3 is still doing 70m+ this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 There shouldn't have been, IM3 is still doing 70m+ this weekend. But there was a one anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandrew Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 FF6 can cross 120M OW, Star Trek - 110M+ in 4 days, Hangover 3 - 80M+ in 4 days and Epic can do 40M+ OW. I think it'll keep the 400M away from IM3. Personally I think IM3 will gross around 390-395M, which is still fantastic. I think all of these are too high, but MW will kick IM3 in the face, not Trek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
