Tuesday #S: DM2 12.07M, TH 3.47M (actual),: Estimates: TLR 3.5, MU 3.2, WWZ 2.5

[Incarnadine]

The Croods was a great movie im surprised its still in theaters though

I'm surprised as well, and equally surprised it's still doing so well with excellent weekly holds, even though the numbers are fairly small now. It's still chugging along even after Epic, MU and now DM2 all opening during its run.

Has TC even hit dollar theaters yet? I haven't noticed any theater increase that usually signals the start of the dollar run yet, it just keeps slowly losing a handful of theaters each week.

[filmnerdjamie]

No doubt it's making more than enough money to keep WB happy. Especially overseas. But most of us were talking about 330-350 and on after its opening weekend, especially when it stayed flat on Father's Day.I don't have a bone to pick with MOS, but I feel like it never became the must-see movie of the summer after its insanely huge OW.

 

People saw it, liked it fine and moved on. Seems to be the story of this whole summer (with few exceptions).

[PDC1987]

The Croods is outgrossing IronMan 3 by almost 17% despite releasing almost a month and a half before, thats some A-grade schooling.

 

Superhero got beat by a bunch of rock throwing early men/woman/children/grandma.

What a stupid post.

 

It's a hell of a lot easier to still be higher on the charts months after release when you open with $40-some million than it is when you have the #2 OW of all time with $174 million. Surely you understand the concept of more demand being burned off earlier the bigger you open?

 

Oh, and IM3 wasn't schooled considering it's production cost was only $65 million/48% bigger than that of The Croods yet this happened:

 

The Croods

Domestic:  $185,177,383  32.0% + Foreign:  $393,423,109  68.0% = Worldwide:  $578,600,492  

 

Iron Man 3

Domestic:  $406,455,862  33.6% + Foreign:  $804,600,000  66.4% = Worldwide:  $1,211,055,862  

[ExcelFTW]

People saw it, liked it fine and moved on. Seems to be the story of this whole summer (with few exceptions).

 

Pretty much this. There have been no real stand out films this summer, word of mouth wise.

 

Man of Steel has been a very odd film. It seems like a lot of the people who initially didn't like Superman and didn't think they would be into a film about him have enjoyed the film and become fans, with this sense of "I never thought about Superman this way", while the die hard fans and serious movie buffs are the ones who are more disappointed with a sense of "what could have been".

 

Box office legs reveal a very complex picture. Supermans legs are decent if not not flat out good given the competition. Just going by the pure numbers, they're very average. Taken into context, MOS has had decent legs which match it's decent but not amazing word of mouth. Probably a notch below BATMAN BEGINS/IRON MAN 1 but a tad above CAPTAIN AMERICA or THOR.

 

Superman as a whole is such an absolute that it is difficult to give him serious character arcs which will still be quasi original in movie goers eyes. They will never please anyone. That said, they need a better a big name (Denzel, Leo) for Luthor and a better release date. Get a big name and continue the AMAZING marketing, and they will have their 150-160m + opener.

Edited July 10, 2013 by ExcelFTW

[mahnamahna]

It's going to be tough. But late legs for it could be solid enough.

 

Being conservative...

Wd 2.6M (-20%)

Th 2.6M (0%)

Fr 3.9M (50%)

St 4.7M (20%)

Sn 3.8M (-20%)

 

239.6M after a 12.4M. It needs 60M

 

After a 12M, TS3 did +50M

After a 13M, Up did +43M

After a 10M, Wall-E did +40M

After a 10.9M, Ratatouille did +41M

After 11M, Nemo did +64M

After 10.7M, Cars did +39M

After 11.2M, Brave did +41M

 

280M / 290M is pretty much assured. And if it gets nice bumps over the next few days, who knows... Let's pray for a +14M weekend...

 

Well

 

It's going to be tough. But late legs for it could be solid enough.

 

Being conservative...

Wd 2.6M (-20%)

Th 2.6M (0%)

Fr 3.9M (50%)

St 4.7M (20%)

Sn 3.8M (-20%)

 

239.6M after a 12.4M. It needs 60M

 

After a 12M, TS3 did +50M

After a 13M, Up did +43M

After a 10M, Wall-E did +40M

After a 10.9M, Ratatouille did +41M

After 11M, Nemo did +64M

After 10.7M, Cars did +39M

After 11.2M, Brave did +41M

 

280M / 290M is pretty much assured. And if it gets nice bumps over the next few days, who knows... Let's pray for a +14M weekend...

 

Here's my predictions:

2.7

2.8 (5.5) - 227.6

4.7

6.0

4.9 (15.6) - 243.2

 

It'll hold a lot better because GU2 and PR aren't in its G-rated demo at all plus it has good WOM so it should hold well!

 

2.2

2.6

2.0

2.1 (8.9) - 252.1

2.7

3.6

3.1 (9.4) - 261.5

 

1.6

1.9

1.5

1.5 (6.5) - 268.0

2.1

2.9

2.1 (7.1) - 275.1

 

1.3

1.5

1.0

1.1 (4.9) - 280.0

1.5

2.1

1.4 (5.0) - 285.0

 

0.9

1.1

0.8

1.0 (3.8) - 288.8

0.8

1.1

0.7 (2.6) - 291.4

 

0.5

0.7

0.4

0.4 (2.0) - 293.4

0.6

0.8

0.5 (1.9) - 295.3

 

295.3 by August 18th

 

Labor Day increase plus its dollar theater run

 

MU could get to 300-302 by the end of its run

I expect a similar weekend tally for TLR.

 

Wd 2.8M (-20%)

Th 2.7M (-5%)

Fr 4M (50%)

St 5M (20%)

Sn 3.8M (-25%)

 

12.8M 2nd weekend (-55%) with both sat and sun being conservative numbers. It should be at 73.5M after 12 days.

For LR:

2.9

2.8 (5.7) - 61.1

4.3

5.0

4.1 (13.4) - 74.5

 

1.6

1.9

1.5

1.6 (6.5) - 81.0

2.3

2.9

2.1 (7.3) - 89.3

 

0.9

1.1

0.8

0.9 (3.7) - 93.0

1.4

1.8

1.2 (4.4) - 97.4

 

0.6

0.8

0.5

0.6 (2.5) - 99.9

1.0

1.3

0.9 (3.2) - 103.1

 

0.4

0.6

0.4

0.5 (1.9) - 105.0

0.6

0.8

0.5 (1.9) - 106.9

 

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.3 (1.2) - 108.1

0.4

0.5

0.3 (1.2) - 109.4

 

109.4 by August 18th

 

Add in Labor Day and dollar theater run - you get 111-114 million total!

[#ED]

Don't turn this in the MoS thread. I'm completely avoiding the MoS thread because every page has walls of text that no one has time to read.

Edited July 10, 2013 by #Despicable ED

[PDC1987]

Pretty much this. There have been no real stand out films this summer, word of mouth wise.

NYSM says hi. Will finish with a 4x multiplier or a bit higher.

[mahnamahna]

Don't turn this in the MoS thread. I'm completely avoiding the MoS thread because every page has walls of text that no one has time to read.

Sorry lol! I just was tryin to track MU and LR!

[Hatebox]

NYSM says hi. Will finish with a 4x multiplier or a bit higher.

 

That has been a nice WOM hit, although it's hard to imagine many people talking about it in 5 years.

[Louis Lux]

Don't turn this in the MoS thread. I'm completely avoiding the MoS thread because every page has walls of text that no one has time to read.

They aren't even discussing MOS... They're talking Star Wars...

 

Considering the competition MOS is having a good run. It's been dropping around 20% on wednesday so I think it can stay above 1.2M for a 5.5M-6M weekend.

[John Marston]

Definitely expected better legs for MOS, but I have no doubt at all having two big openers the second weekend definitely hurt it. I can't think of another 100m opener that had two big movie open right after. Still at least it's managed to have sub 50 drops the following two weeks

Edited July 10, 2013 by Robert Muldoon

[Krissykins]

$300m still in play for MOS. IMO.

[Leyla]

NYSM says hi. Will finish with a 4x multiplier or a bit higher.

TITE too

That has been a nice WOM hit, although it's hard to imagine many people talking about it in 5 years.

there will be a sequel so ppl will talk

 

Here the wom hit is def Gatsby

It had 3 multiplyer

Edited July 10, 2013 by Leyla

[#ED]

The 2 biggest openers this Summer have had the worst legs.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

I am Happy Fox keeps movies in theaters long. That is why Ice Age 3 overcame Ice Age 2's DOM total, and I am happy for it.

[seduh]

amazing numbers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! come on MU

[wileECoyote]

Good numbers overall. DM2 bump is good considering the big weekend. Though the drop will probably be harsher.C'mon MU recover! Damn that weekend hit was just ugly. To be expected I guess but was thinking it was going to hold out better. Looking forward to good stabilizing drops.Now I just need my NYSM number

[Leyla]

Now I just need my NYSM number

yeah we'll have to wait for the #s longer now when its soo down the table

 

need my celebtration of beating HO3

maybe this weekend

[Mattrek]

NYSM says hi. Will finish with a 4x multiplier or a bit higher.

So far this summer NYSM, TITE and WWZ have had good/great legs. The rest have been chopped due to the crowded summer.

[ecstasy]

Whoa DM2! What a Tuesday.