Weekend Estimates: Thor TDW 86.1M, Ender 10.25, Free Birds 11.2, Grav 8.4, BG 11.3, Last Vegas 11.1

[Talon]

I am fan of Thor as a character, (sorry Tarzan)there is one good thing coming from this mediocrity under performing -  it ensure that there will not be any "Loki solo movie" as marketing was focused on him and it added nothing and while third Thor is mandatory thing (sorry again Tarzan) this *****would not happen. *happy dance*

[Fake]

$31.633m official for Thor

That looks like a decent number to me. Why should there be meltdowns?

[grim22]

$31.633m official for Thor

 

So, an actual Friday of 24.633M then. 3 multiplier will give it 74, adding in the 7 will give it 81M for the weekend. So the Deadline numbers seem to be right unless the multiplier falls to less than a 3.

[John Marston]

Last Thor made 25m on Friday so this is not a huge jump like many were expecting

[druv10]

I respect your opinion on film here more than most, but I disagree with your outlook on the new SW film.  When Menace came out it did massive numbers.  Without looking at what it adjusts to now, it has to be over 500 mill.  And with the interest there will be with SW this time, simply because of the returning cast, the opening weekend will have to be high.  How could it not?  Sith, which came out after the ostensibly hated Clones, managed a 50 million dollar opening day.  That, at the time, was unprecedented. What reason would it have this time around, to not do well opening weekend?  I agree that perhaps some of the massive predictions will not come true, but why would it open to under 100 mill like some are suggesting?  This is the apex franchise and it has enough loonies to come out in droves opening weekend and with the next weekend being Christmas weekend, it's bound to have a great hold.  

 

Forget about the Avatar comparisons but take even a film like Did You Hear About The Morgans?  That opened on December 18th 2009 also.  It fell 41% on the 21st, up 10% on the Tues, down 14% on Wed, down 35% on Thurs and then on Christmas Day it jumped 132%, then 27% and then declined by 23% on the Sunday.

 

Take even conservative estimates for the new SW film, lets say Clones adjusted: That would be about 120 mill after 3 days which gives it about a 30 mill Sunday.  Using Morgan's drops and increases, you have:

 

120 mill three days:

Monday:  18 mill

Tues:  19.8 mill

Wed:  17

Thurs (Christmas Eve): 11

Friday:  25.8 mill

Sat:  32.87

Sun:  25.5

 

So after Christmas weekend, using conservative numbers, it's at 270 mill.  How do you see it grossing only another 110 mill from there?

 

600 mill?  Doubtful.  500 mill?  Difficult to see the future is.  But 400, 450?  That seems very reasonable and if the film is better liked than EP 1 and 2, it should have a shot at 500 mill.

 

 

Completely agree with you. SW is a beast unlike we've ever seen. All 6 movies adjust to 400M and TPM over 700M. TPM is the best comparison for SW7 regarding anticipation and buzz. Add in the release date which is essentially 2 OWs back to back and 3rd weekend inflated by New Years, if the movie is any good than we can easily see SW7 reach the past glory. 500M can happen, hell 600M wouldn't be out of the question if movie is great. 

Edited November 9, 2013 by druv10

[filmnerdjamie]

That looks like a decent number to me. Why should there be meltdowns?

 

Because expectations were centered around "the Avengers effect."

[keysersoze123]

That is not bad at all. When you mentioned meltdown I thought it will fall in lower end of RTH's range. Bravo to RTH for acing it. Even Nikki did great. I would range of 79-83 OW for this film.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

With 81M OW, IM3 legs will carry it to a 178M DOM total ....

[CaptainJackSparrow]

With 81M OW, IM3 legs will carry it to a 178M DOM total ....

YES YES YES!!!!

[grey ghost]

The final chapter of the SW saga and the return of Darth Vader wasn't able to crack 400m. I wouldn't be too surprised if SW7 "only" manages to make 450m.

The final chapter of the SW saga and the return of Darth Vader wasn't able to crack 400m. I wouldn't be too surprised if SW7 "only" manages to make 450m.

People were tired of the prequels by then.Phantom Menace is a better comparison. Anticipation for SW7 will be once again be off the charts.

[druv10]

YES YES YES!!!!

 

I'm gonna lol so hard at you if Cap underperforms.      

[baumer]

Well, the Avengers effect is still there, it did increase about 20%, so that's good.

[Noctis]

$31.633m official for Thor

 

Mediocre (and completely expected) as hell. 

 

Just so meh. 

 

This actually bodes really well for Catching Fire. Hmm...Definitely within the realm of possibility that it manages to sell 3x more tickets than Thor did on its OD. 

[Fake]

Because expectations were centered around "the Avengers effect."

Even if accounting for the so called Avengers effect,IM3 OW was only 15-20% bigger than IM2 in terms of admissions, why were people expecting much bigger jump for Thor?

[keysersoze123]

I am sure Cap 2 will beat thor 2 domestic. But OS it will lose by a margin.

 

I am thinking thor 2 will gross 190M while Cap 2 will make 225M.

[grim22]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice37s

12 YEARS A SLAVE: $1.85M Friday (est) / $12.59M Domestic Total / 1,144 Locations / $1,617 Location Avg. #12YearsASlave

[druv10]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice1m

12 YEARS A SLAVE: $1.85M Friday (est) / $12.59M Domestic Total / 1,144 Locations / $1,617 Location Avg. #12YearsASlave

[John Marston]

Even if accounting for the so called Avengers effect,IM3 OW was only 15-20% bigger than IM2 in terms of admissions, why were people expecting much bigger jump for Thor?

More room to grow

[The Stingray]

People were tired of the prequels by then.Phantom Menace is a better comparison. Anticipation for SW7 will be once again be off the charts.

Naah, I beg to differ. Phantom Menace came off the super-beloved original trilogy. SW 7 comes off the garbage that was the prequels. Hype will be nowhere near what it was for Phantom Menace, imo.

[baumer]

People were tired of the prequels by then.Phantom Menace is a better comparison. Anticipation for SW7 will be once again be off the charts.

 

And at the time, in 2005, there were 7 films that had made 400 million dollars.  So it missed 400 mill but still managed to be the 8th highest grossing film of all time after it's run.