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baumer

Thurs#s Rth: CF 15 FRZ 11-11.5 (Nikki still drunk from 2010, says 13.7 for CF)

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He's extrapolating and then adding some of his own hypothesis.  I'm not doing that. I've given you three kids films that opened on Wednesday of Thanksgiving week and all three of them (released in the last three years) increased more than 140%.  Why would this one fall behind that?

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Some of you guys are lowballing Frozen. For it to do 24 mill today means it only goes up 114%.  Why would it do that?  Arthur Christmas went up 144%. Rise of the Guardians went up 147% and Tangled 142%.  So why would Frozen go up a full 30% less?  

 

Give Frozen a 145% jump today and it does 27 mill.  A 5% drop Sat gives it 25.6 mill and then a 42% drop gives it 15 mill Sunday.  That's 67.5 mill.  No way it misses 25 mill today.

 

Well Frozen's mid-week numbers were much bigger than those other films. Typically that means slightly smaller jumps but this weekend is normally a little different each year so we'll see.

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It's getting into the evening now and Frozen sellouts don't look to be slowing down that much. I really do think CF and Frozen are going to combine for $60+m today.

 

The sick thing is, it may still not be enough to top Black Friday last year. The rest of the top ten sucks donkey nuts.  :D

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Well Frozen's mid-week numbers were much bigger than those other films. Typically that means slightly smaller jumps but this weekend is normally a little different each year so we'll see.

 

It doesn't matter how big the numbers are, you can take a pattern from Thursday on.  

 

Tangled dropped 32% on Thursday.

ROTG dropped 23%

AC dropped 23%  as well.

 

Frozen fell 27%.

 

So there's not much difference.

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