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Jack Nevada

BAFTA 2014

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I just hope Jolie gets a nomination. Will be a huge victory. Academy is notoriously biased against actors turned directors, especially females.

 

Like Jlaw said herself, you are talking about the king and quen of America.

Don't forget her narrative about her medical hardships.

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I just hope Jolie gets a nomination. Will be a huge victory. Academy is notoriously biased against actors turned directors, especially females.

They might not be female, but Costner, Redford and Gibson all won BD with their first nomination. Affleck is the exception to the rule.

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So 12 Years a Slave lost everything except Actor and Picture, this really is a jumbling mess.I'd say 12 Years probably wins picture, but it lost all of its awards (McConaughey is would have won had he been eligible). I just can't see 12YAS only winning BP but it is currently not locked to win anything right now.

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I still think Slave should win Adapted Screenplay.

 

Should yes. But adapted is probably Harvey's only place to win so it isn't certain. 

 

 

That's not going to happen.

 

I'm not saying it will absolutely, but you can't deny that there is the possibility. The sum, it seems, is greater than its individual components. 

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12YAS should win at least 2 Oscars in addition to BP to save some face (the best bets are obviously Supp. Actress and Adapted Screenplay), in that case we'll basically have a Godfather / Cabaret repeat. (Which would be fine with me). If it wins BP and one other Oscar, or only BP, it'll just look embarrassing IMO. 

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12YAS should win at least 2 Oscars in addition to BP to save some face (the best bets are obviously Supp. Actress and Adapted Screenplay), in that case we'll basically have a Godfather / Cabaret repeat. (Which would be fine with me). If it wins BP and one other Oscar, or only BP, it'll just look embarrassing IMO. 

Well, it would cause controversery for sure and backlash. If 12YAS wins 1 or 2 awards and let's say Gravity gets 6 or 7, people are going to further question the Academy's ability to award mainstream box office hits. Oh well, however, that scenario could really help Interstellar in 2014 if the film is as good as most of Nolan's past work.

 

Perhaps, the most bizarre and almost impossible scenario, 12YAS ties with Gravity while winning no other awards.

Edited by CloneWars
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If we want to solely go off patterns the last 10 years have had a blockbuster winner followed by a non blockbuster since 2004 to now - so that pattern dictates that Gravity/Hustle/Wolf/Phillips are all off the table....

 

just an observation (and a knock at the mainstream hits idea)

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Well, it would cause controversery for sure and backlash. If 12YAS wins 1 or 2 awards and let's say Gravity gets 6 or 7, people are going to further question the Academy's ability to award mainstream box office hits. Oh well, however, that scenario could really help Interstellar in 2014 if the film is as good as most of Nolan's past work.

 

Perhaps, the most bizarre and almost impossible scenario, 12YAS ties with Gravity while winning no other awards.

 

The Oscars will do everything possible to avoid a tie for BP.

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If we want to solely go off patterns the last 10 years have had a blockbuster winner followed by a non blockbuster since 2004 to now - so that pattern dictates that Gravity/Hustle/Wolf/Phillips are all off the table....

 

just an observation (and a knock at the mainstream hits idea)

I have to disagree. I feel the last time we had a box office smash awarded was RotK. I know what you mean, but I don't consider films with sub $150M grosses to be blockbusters. 

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If we want to solely go off patterns the last 10 years have had a blockbuster winner followed by a non blockbuster since 2004 to now - so that pattern dictates that Gravity/Hustle/Wolf/Phillips are all off the table....

 

just an observation (and a knock at the mainstream hits idea)

 

I'd hardly call Argo, The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionare, The Departed, or Million Dollar Baby, at best they were hits.

 

I could see you calling Chicago a blockbuster and Return of the King a blockbuster, yet those won back to back.

 

The last actual blockbuster to win BP was Return of the King, you also aren't taking into account the majority of the 100m+ BP grossers wouldn't have gotten to 100m if they handn't gotten Oscar nominees, Argo and the Departed being the two exceptions (Although they barely scraped by 100m).

 

An actual mainstream film has not won since Return of the King.

Edited by The Panda
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