Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Borobudur]

I think the expectation for China BO need to adjusted accordingly. People are getting way too excited to the point that they thought the situation over there is as open as in USA. In fact, it remain super fluid and fast changing. Yes, things are on positive trajectory but to highlight, many in China still scared of getting Covid-19. Releasing A2 now is like releasing GvK back in Mar 2021 in domestic market.  

[Sophia Jane]

Just now, Borobudur said:

I think the expectation for China BO need to adjusted accordingly. People are getting way too excited to the point that they thought the situation over there is as open as in USA. In fact, it remain super fluid and fast changing. Yes, things are on positive trajectory but to highlight, many in China still scared of getting Covid-19. Releasing A2 now is like releasing GvK back in Mar 2021 in domestic market.  

Acually which people or even animal live on earth doesn’t afriad of covid-19?

[The Dark Alfred]

China is still restricted. I think it could have done 800m-1 billion in China alone in normal circumstances.

[Borobudur]

9 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Acually which people or even animal live on earth doesn’t afriad of covid-19?

Most parts of the world see Covid-19 now as common seasonal flu that come back every winter. Western countries started the transition that in second half 2021 while Asian live with it in early this year but in China, the government was still insists Covid-19 is highly dangerous (as if it is a HIV virus), only to take sudden U-turn in recent days.   

[SchumacherFTW]

Was just having a look at the bigger cinemas around me, outside of premium screens where you're pretty much forced to watch in 3D, there's definitely an audience preference so far for basic 2D screens rather than Real D 3D. Backs up my claim that I think 3D won't be as big a factor as expected, the public don't want the overly dark normal 3D screens, but they'll watch it happily in better premium auditoriums. 

[The Dark Alfred]

I'm in that camp. I thought AVATAR was much better in 2D. 3D was trash, even if it was much nicely done by Cameron than anyone else. Its visuals were great, which works on every big screen. So long I can watch it in IMAX 2D, I'm there for it.

[Deep Wang]

11 hours ago, Danhjpn said:

How much is the legs for this movie people expect? 

6x-8x???

 

 

6 hours ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Remember XXR that None of his giant epics  have gotten such a low multiplier.

So I'm going with 6.1x (hoping it gets a 7x or better though)

  Avatar 1 had a 10x multplier btw.

Titanic a 30+x Multi. And Titanic to Avatar(12 year gap) Avatar - Avatar 2(13 year gap)

 

This movie I feel will get a much better  multi than TGM even with a giant OW.

 

Agreed the  on the rewatch value of Cameron films has no rival.

The big question can he get a 7 multiplier with 190-200+ OW.

 

 

5 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Top Gun just did over 5.5, so I think over 5 is quite possible really. 

 

Boy have I got a club for you guys! 

 

[Deep Wang]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

The reason the original Avatar was able to make so much from 3D was of course because it was a novetly at the time, just like water is for A2, but also Avatar's legs were a massive reason. Yeah well of course you need legs to make money, but actually there were limited 3D screens back in 2009 so if it was more frontloaded there wouldn't have been the capacity, as Jim keeps saying we've gone from 6000 to 120000 globablly, or something like that.

 

From presales it looks like 3D is going to account for above 50% of the gross in America, the region that hates 3D the most. I predict this % will only rise when people watch the movie in 3D as they've forgotten what good 3D looks like. Imagine being 10-15 years old, you've probably never seen good 3D in your life so this is going to be an experience for them.

 

Back to my point, 50%+ revenue from 3D sales is unheard for in domestic market for the longest time, which is a reason when comparing Avatar 2 to other recent films like TGM & NWH you have to expect this to have two things, 1) more reason to see it in cinema, and 2) higher average ticket price

 

I think >70% gross from 3D is in DOMESTIC is going to happen for A2

 

Okay, so one thing you might not be accounting for is the walkups.  

 

Yes, presales are strong for 3D, but that's not the general audience, those are fans that know that's what they want.  You are  probably assuming that trend will continue with walkups from the regular folk, but it is in no way a guarantee.  There was a STRONG pushback to 3D and maybe everyone knows that this is the good kind, but maybe some people are just done with it.

 

We just have to see how it turns out.

[stuart360]

I do feel doemstic is the one of the harder gross to judge. I mean internationally this could literally be anything, with 2bil locked imo.

Domestic is tougher.

 

Having said that, i'm not sure why some of you are having a hard time accepting some of the predicitons in here. Yes some of them area  little crazy and over the top, but some of you seem to think 700mil is stretching. Spiderman did over 800mil at a time when covid was much more of an issue, and Top Gun did over 700mil with an opening weekend that will be around half what A2 will have.

 

Dont get me wrong, i 'only' have A2 in the 750-800mil domestic range. but i'm rreally starting to think i'm lwballing and 900mil is in play.

The reaosn i think that is the first film had 10x legs, and yes it opened much lower than A2 will but at the same time i just cant see the legs dopping under half, meaning 5 times legs. I cant see legs dopping under half when A2 is supposedly just as good or even better than the first film, and an even better cinema going 'experience'. And 5x legs off a 180mil OW (and OW is looking in that range) is 900mil. So yeah dont be too quick to doubt, and people really shouldnt be doubting Cameron anymore. Why do people never learn?.

 

So yeah people coming into the thread for the first time in forever, throwing your weight around, just remember some people in here have been studying this films chances for a long time now.

[Deuce66]

14 hours ago, NCsoft said:

This is encouraging, Grace Randolph hated the first one (still lukewarm after rewatch)

Now look at her Critic choice awards nomination ballot...

What a drastic change in attitude.

 

 

 

Now I'm scared...that means the sequel has shifted enough in tone to win over a hater (of the 2009) which means it might turn off a few lovers of the original or not. Still nice to see it made her list for Best Movie/Director and most encouraging of all Screenplay. I expect WoW to clean up all awards related to the tech side. As annoying as I tend to find her, she does have 137.5 K followers on Twitter and 944K Youtube subs. 

 

 

 

[Elessar]

8 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Top Gun did over 700mil with an opening weekend that will be around half what A2 will have.

 

Not quite. TGM opened to $126m.

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Not quite. TGM opened to $126m.

Oops sorry, i had it my head that TGM opened to 103mil for some reason.

Still the point stands, TGM opened much lower than this is going to.

[TRISTAN]

3 hours ago, wildphantom said:

I love how flippant a billion domestic is being thrown around just because the movie is apparently good. 
 

This isn’t the first film that’s got huge hype going into the week before Christmas. The hype is nowhere near the levels Force Awakens, No Way Home, Last Jedi had in recent years. It’s big, yes. And it’ll open big.  We’ve got no idea what will happen after that. 
 

will it play well through the holidays and beyond? I’m sure it will. But to casually say it will perform like Maverick and NWH is more fanboying than based on any kind of reality. 
 

We’ll see. Some are only setting themselves up for disappointment when it ‘only makes $650 million’.  A billion dollars domestic? Bigger than Force Awakens?? Come on now. 
 

Not saying it isn’t possible, especially considering the lack of competition and free runway it has. But the hyperbole from some on here is way out of control. Lmao. 
 

and no, the reviews are not even close to what Maverick had as early buzz. 

Maverick is a very ordinary movie..... It just got lucky and rode to glory just coasting on nostalgia. 

[Mr Roark]

We are in a situation where it’s basically confirmed that the absolute worst case scenario for this film is to cross $2B besting IW and TFA. If you stop and think about it, that’s already insane especially after all the “no one asked for this sequel, it had no cultural impact” nonsense floating around for years.

I still think $3B are possible because TWOW is about not just watching a film, but living a collective immersive experience.

[Nero]

1 minute ago, TRISTAN said:

Maverick is a very ordinary movie..... It just got lucky and rode to glory just coasting on nostalgia. 

That might be the case for you but the people who watched it repeatedly think otherwise. TGM had great legs. It's late legs were insane. 

[Nero]

1 minute ago, Mr Roark said:

We are in a situation where it’s basically confirmed that the absolute worst case scenario for this film is to cross $2B besting IW and TFA. If you stop and think about it, that’s already insane especially after all the “no one asked for this sequel, it had no cultural impact” nonsense floating around for years.

I still think $3B are possible because TWOW is about not just watching a film, but living a collective immersive experience.

It really doesn't have a cultural impact. Avatar's main selling point was it's visuals it wasn't the characters. This time around story seems to be better so hopefully the characters are fleshed out but it's main selling point is still the visuals. 

[JustLurking]

Reducing it all to "the visuals" is grossly underplaying the appeal of the worldbuilding of the film imho. The first Avatar created a culture, language, animals, and a fuckload of nature. The story was simple because more than half of the film is just Jake - aka the audience's insert - learning about said world, which is pretty much the main character of the film.

[Deep Wang]

10 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I do feel doemstic is the one of the harder gross to judge. I mean internationally this could literally be anything, with 2bil locked imo.

Domestic is tougher.

 

Having said that, i'm not sure why some of you are having a hard time accepting some of the predicitons in here. Yes some of them area  little crazy and over the top, but some of you seem to think 700mil is stretching. Spiderman did over 800mil at a time when covid was much more of an issue, and Top Gun did over 700mil with an opening weekend that will be around half what A2 will have.

 

Dont get me wrong, i 'only' have A2 in the 750-800mil domestic range. but i'm rreally starting to think i'm lwballing and 900mil is in play.

The reaosn i think that is the first film had 10x legs, and yes it opened much lower than A2 will but at the same time i just cant see the legs dopping under half, meaning 5 times legs. I cant see legs dopping under half when A2 is supposedly just as good or even better than the first film, and an even better cinema going 'experience'. And 5x legs off a 180mil OW (and OW is looking in that range) is 900mil. So yeah dont be too quick to doubt, and people really shouldnt be doubting Cameron anymore. Why do people never learn?.

 

So yeah people coming into the thread for the first time in forever, throwing your weight around, just remember some people in here have been studying this films chances for a long time now.

 

Because every movie is going to behave in their own way?  It's easy to say, "it's Cameron, this is how his movies perform!"  But that's not real analysis, it's just an assumption that that's how things are going to keep going.  Maybe it will get a 5x, but there's no guarantee just because it's Cameron.  

 

I found the Mojo forums because of Avatar.  I love when movies perform unbelievably at the box office and as down as everyone probably thinks I am with this movie(I'm not), I would LOVE to be wrong and see some crazy shit we've never seen before!  

[Borobudur]

Say whatever about the 3D, but I am pretty sure 3D reception will be far better than 2D crowd, unless for people who develop motion sickness easily. 

 

All reaction praise and highlight 3D works beautifully and effectively. Even the less positive or negative review didn't bash 3D. That is the first sign that 3D will be major part of the word-of-mouth later in general public. I am glad most PLF force 3D, don't waste 3D technology when that is where the competitive advantage against streaming.     

[TRISTAN]

17 minutes ago, Nero said:

That might be the case for you but the people who watched it repeatedly think otherwise. TGM had great legs. It's late legs were insane. 

What does Maverick have that a movie like True Lies did not have in spades ?! But an all around awesome movie like True Lies just did only $146 million in DOM box office and Maverick did $717 million or so !! I don't have anything other than nostalgia to explain this.

Edited December 10, 2022 by TRISTAN