Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Maggie]

QUESTION: Force Awakens was a huge hit, but The Last Jedi dropped quite significantly. Is Star Wars a good comparison to A2? At least for Ow, i would say SW is more frontloaded, right?

[Sheldon Cr]

19 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

 

800mil US, 800mil China, 1.5bil rest of the world = 3.1bil total.

None of those numbers are out of the question.

 

Tracking in the US has the OW in the 160-200mil range, and would only need 4-4.5x legs to get to 800mil.

 

Predictions out of China are around 200mil OW, and if it hits 200mil then 800mil is happening imo.

 

And 1.5bil for the rest of the world is more than possible.

You know it. But this scenario is also on the table. what if that 190-210 Ow gets James typical 6-7x plus multiplier. We don't even need 70% of Avatar and Titanic fans to show. JC has a crazy fan base for his epics that are so consistent in support of his mega movies it boggles the mind. 3.1 b definitely on the card brother Stuart.

 

In fact Pandora power may take in far more than that.

I suspect it will, especially with TGM surprising with its awesome run on all fronts

Edited December 11, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[JWR]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

QUESTION: Force Awakens was a huge hit, but The Last Jedi dropped quite significantly. Is Star Wars a good comparison to A2? At least for Ow, i would say SW is more frontloaded, right?

 

Only if Avatar 2 turns out to be super polarizing.

[Maggie]

Just now, JWR said:

 

Only if Avatar 2 turns out to be super polarizing.

I see. I don't think it will.

[JWR]

Just now, Maggie said:

I see. I don't think it will.

 

I also think it's important to remember that even without the reaction The Last Jedi got, it was always going to have a big drop from what The Force Awakens made due to it not having the novelty of Star Wars coming back to the big screen after 10 years.

 

Likewise, The Way of Water won't have the novelty the first Avatar did, but it should still be a big hit.

[stuart360]

8 minutes ago, Maggie said:

QUESTION: Force Awakens was a huge hit, but The Last Jedi dropped quite significantly. Is Star Wars a good comparison to A2? At least for Ow, i would say SW is more frontloaded, right?

The Last Jedi got great critic reviews, but the fans hated it, and its the fans that see these films multiple times togive films the big grosses they get.

 

A2, by all accounts, is as good or even better than the first movie, and more importantly an even better 'experience' than the first movie, and i feel its that cinema experience that helped the first film be as big as it was.

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

QUESTION: Force Awakens was a huge hit, but The Last Jedi dropped quite significantly. Is Star Wars a good comparison to A2? At least for Ow, i would say SW is more frontloaded, right?

Definitely, but didn't have quite the staying power vs it's massive OW. So the difference is A2 should be the first mega movie with a massive OW with the potential to have a absurd 6x-8x multiplier. And that's just awesome.. I don't think any film can be a true model for James Cameron well received breakthrough film with 13 yrs of anticipation.

 

I do think a best case scenario domestically is to surpass FAs tally  by 350m plus. Really hoping Avatar Way of the Water shocks the world with a 200m ow and 500-550m plus WW start

[IronJimbo]

11 minutes ago, Maggie said:

QUESTION: Force Awakens was a huge hit, but The Last Jedi dropped quite significantly. Is Star Wars a good comparison to A2? At least for Ow, i would say SW is more frontloaded, right?

Avatar 2 is closer to The Force Awakens than it is to The Last Jedi, as TFA is a movie that came out a decade after the previous star wars movie.

Also the Avatar saga will be backloaded for now as it's not an established franchise like Marvel / DC / Star Wars yet.

 

 

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

I also think it's important to remember that even without the reaction The Last Jedi got, it was always going to have a big drop from what The Force Awakens made due to it not having the novelty of Star Wars coming back to the big screen after 10 years.

 

Likewise, The Way of Water won't have the novelty the first Avatar did, but it should still be a big hit.

There is also 13 years between A1 and A2, which is why some poeple think the film will play more like an orig film than a sequel that has come within 2 or 3 years.

[danziger]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

It shows the power of AVATAR when the 'puny bear' option, a option where there is litrally zero chance the gross will go that low, the option is still 1.56bil worldwide, which would be the biggest gross of the year lol.

I'm still seeing a lot of people on social media saying this will probably flop. The hatred and toxicity against James Cameron is in overdrive and once again people are blinding themselves to incoming reality. Even most industry professionals that I've seen seem to doubt TWOW will top TGM worldwide. John Campea has been saying that it won't get close to $2 billion, and this is despite him liking Cameron and Avatar. Kristian Harloff said before he saw TWOW he thought it would get $1.2bn, and after seeing it he's upped that but still says it won't hit $2bn. So the disconnect between this thread and most of the industry seems really extreme. I haven't followed this stuff enough to make any predictions, but I hope you guys are right.

Edited December 11, 2022 by danziger

[IronJimbo]

16 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

I also think it's important to remember that even without the reaction The Last Jedi got, it was always going to have a big drop from what The Force Awakens made due to it not having the novelty of Star Wars coming back to the big screen after 10 years.

 

Likewise, The Way of Water won't have the novelty the first Avatar did, but it should still be a big hit.

I think people are massively underrating the novelty of Avatar 2, it's the film with the most novelty since the first Avatar.
 

We have the water of Avatar 2. People love water, and this film will have the best underwater shots every seen in film in glorious 4k 3D 48fps. The is a massive novelty.

The visual improvements in Avatar 2 are higher than they were for Avatar. Back in 2009 we already had incredible CGI characters in OTC's Davy Jones and King Kong. What was impressive for Avatar was the scale of the CGI, the film was 70% cgi which was completely unheard of at the time. Avatar 2's visual improvemtns are in crazy water CG, massive advancements in animation and espcially facial animation. The Na'vi look far more real than any other CG character and are able to put forward the actors true performance much better.

 

The true novelty for the first Avatar was that 3D had never been done good before, but for many audiences for Avatar 2, they have still never seen good 3D before. Think 8-18 year olds. Then even the people who have seen good 3D, haven't seen it in years. Avatar 2 will have the best 3D ever seen on screen.

This movie is more groundbreaking than the first was. Which isn't really that big of a deal when you consider Jim has put more far more time & effort into Avatar 2 than the original.
 

Also people might get annoyed by this but the quality of films in 2010s was lower than it was in the 2000s, so that helps too.

Edited December 11, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Sheldon Cr]

6 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

There is also 13 years between A1 and A2, which is why some poeple think the film will play more like an orig film than a sequel that has come within 2 or 3 years.

Same here. Also we won't just have returning visitors from Avatar one.

Endgame fans are stoked for another crazy film that blows their minds even further. And there's this kinda universally loved boat film that's has quite the fandom that will show up to because it's been so long to see what Cameron has next.

[hw64]

31 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

The absolute I was reffering to was

"At best it'll repeat Avatar's 27/73"

 

Using your $700m Domestic, then going with a more reasonable OS-C of $1400m, it would only need $550m from China to get up to 26/74

 

I didn't say that, I said:

  

57 minutes ago, hw64 said:

At best it'll repeat Avatar's 27/73 or very slightly better (24/76, 25/75)

 

I might have been slightly overzealous on this claim — with a relative domestic underperformance, 23/77 is possible, maybe 22/78 at a stretch, but I stand by what I said about 20/80. It's extremely unlikely even with a domestic underperformance, and if you're not looking at a domestic underperformance — if you're looking at $800m+ domestically — then anywhere close to 20/80 is effectively impossible.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

I didn't say that, I said:

  

 

I might have been slightly overzealous on this claim — with a relative domestic underperformance, 23/77 is possible, maybe 22/78 at a stretch, but I stand by what I said about 20/80. It's extremely unlikely even with a domestic underperformance, and if you're not looking at a domestic underperformance — if you're looking at $800m+ domestically — then anywhere close to 20/80 is effectively impossible.

 

Yeah my bad i misread you. I think 80/20 is impossible but China getting up to something crazy like $800m is possible so I'm thinking the split may end up far more international heavy than first thought.

[dignam]

I hope SNL will make a sequel to this, since they changed the font 😁

 

 

[JWR]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I think people are massively underrating the novelty of Avatar 2, it's the film with the most novelty since the first Avatar.
 

We have the water of Avatar 2. People love water, and this film will have the best underwater shots every seen in film in glorious 4k 3D 48fps. The is a massive novelty.

The visual improvements in Avatar 2 are higher than they were for Avatar. Back in 2009 we already had incredible CGI characters in OTC's Davy Jones and King Kong. What was impressive for Avatar was the scale of the CGI, the film was 70% cgi which was completely unheard of at the time. Avatar 2's visual improvemtns are in crazy water CG, massive advancements in animation and espcially facial animation. The Na'vi look far more real than any other CG character and are able to put forward the actors true performance much better.

 

The true novelty for the first Avatar was that 3D had never been done good before, but for many audiences for Avatar 2, they have still never seen good 3D before. Think 8-18 year olds. Then even the people who have seen good 3D, haven't seen it in years. Avatar 2 will have the best 3D ever seen on screen.

This movie is more groundbreaking than the first was. Which isn't really that big of a deal when you consider Jim has put more far more time & effort into Avatar 2 than the original.
 

Also people might get annoyed by this but the quality of films in 2010s was lower than it was in the 2000s, so that helps too.

 

This definitely has the novelty factor of a Force Awakens style film. 

[stuart360]

8 minutes ago, danziger said:

I'm still seeing a lot of people on social media saying this will probably flop. The hatred and toxicity against James Cameron is in overdrive in response to his recent comments and once again people are blinding themselves to incoming reality. Even most industry professionals that I've seen seem to doubt TWOW will top TGM worldwide. John Campea has been saying that it won't get close to $2 billion, and this is despite him liking Cameron and Avatar. Kristian Harloff said before he saw TWOW he thought it would get $1.2bn, and after seeing it he's upped that but still says it won't hit $2bn. So the disconnect between this thread and most of the industry seems really extreme. I haven't followed this stuff enough to make any predictions, but I hope guys are right.

Just because people work in the industry, it doesnt mean they are box office experts (and i'm not saying we are either, but we do spend time on this for fun). Same with the Youtubers and 'influencers'.

 

I mean i have seen Youtubes say ' i can see this hitting 1bil but not much more'.

Its just clueless if you sit down and work it out.

 

The WW opening weekend will probably be in the 700-800mil range, with 600mil probably being locked lol. Even a pitiful 3x multiplyer off the WW OW will be over 2bil. Thats why 2bil is 100% locked.

 

EDIT. Also i still havent seen what comments Cameron said about Marvel to piss off their fanbase, but damn Jim, why would you do that right beofre your film launches!?.😆

Edited December 11, 2022 by stuart360

[Sheldon Cr]

7 minutes ago, danziger said:

I'm still seeing a lot of people on social media saying this will probably flop. The hatred and toxicity against James Cameron is in overdrive and once again people are blinding themselves to incoming reality. Even most industry professionals that I've seen seem to doubt TWOW will top TGM worldwide. John Campea has been saying that it won't get close to $2 billion, and this is despite him liking Cameron and Avatar. Kristian Harloff said before he saw TWOW he thought it would get $1.2bn, and after seeing it he's upped that but still says it won't hit $2bn. So the disconnect between this thread and most of the industry seems really extreme. I haven't followed this stuff enough to make any predictions, but I hope you guys are right.

There was tons of online hate on Titanic and Avatar. Not to worry.. Haters still show and come back for more. Some say screw it and become pandorians and JC supporters .

 

This is more of the same brother Danz. Both Cameron films still blew everything away.😉

[IronJimbo]

Also there's only ever been one Avatar before, so it being the only other Avatar film in history is also a massive novelty.

It's experiential filmmaking and like nothing else.

[XXR & Friends]

10 minutes ago, danziger said:

ohn Campea has been saying that it won't get close to $2 billion, and this is despite him liking Cameron and Avatar. Kristian Harloff said before he saw TWOW he thought it would get $1.2bn, and after seeing it he's upped that but still says it won't hit $2bn. So the disconnect between this thread and most of the industry seems really extreme. I haven't followed this stuff enough to make any predictions, but I hope you guys are right.

 

To be frank, they don't know or track the box office. While they work in the industry and are tangentially near it, listening to their thoughts on the box office is like asking a neurosurgeon to perform a heart transplant.