Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Deep Wang]

On 12/12/2011 at 12:52 PM, SchumacherFTW said:

Then holy shit MW3's doing well!

 

Reading this and also knowing MW2 is coming out before Avatar 2 hits is wrinkling my brain!

 

 

On 1/13/2012 at 12:25 AM, vc2002 said:

On 1/13/2012 at 12:22 AM, 'Noctis said:

It's utterly ridiculous we have to wait six or seven years for this.

It's Cameron. What do you expect. At least we dont have to wait 12 years this time lol

 

Well, he's right!

 

On 4/19/2012 at 1:53 AM, Deep Wang said:

You just know he's gonna send every spare 3D camera he's got up there.

This was my first post in this wild ass thread.

 

The first couple dozen pages is literally from another age.  

[IronJimbo]

On 5/7/2019 at 6:38 PM, Porthos said:

I just realized something.

 

BOT has been spared Avatar 2 clubs for another year.

 

We need more.

 

@Deep Wang this is fun

[SchumacherFTW]

2 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Reading this and also knowing MW2 is coming out before Avatar 2 hits is wrinkling my brain!

 

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

 

[SchumacherFTW]

How naive I was to think a movie couldn't hit $1bn in 5 days. I never envisioned Endgame though 😅

[Deep Wang]

Just now, SchumacherFTW said:

How naive I was to think a movie couldn't hit $1bn in 5 days. I never envisioned Endgame though 😅

 

There's a lot of hilarious stuff.  Someone wondering whether $100m second weekend or $1b domestic gross would come first 🤣

 

That's what I mean though, it's so long ago that it almost feels foreign.  

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

There's a lot of hilarious stuff.  Someone wondering whether $100m second weekend or $1b domestic gross would come first 🤣

 

That's what I mean though, it's so long ago that it almost feels foreign.  

yeah cinemas has changed a lot, I reckon this is actually really nice timing for Avatar 2.

[SchumacherFTW]

8 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

There's a lot of hilarious stuff.  Someone wondering whether $100m second weekend or $1b domestic gross would come first 🤣

 

That's what I mean though, it's so long ago that it almost feels foreign.  

Das ist nicht meine Kino

[Deep Wang]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

yeah cinemas has changed a lot, I reckon this is actually really nice timing for Avatar 2.

 

Probably!

 

I can say with a reasonable degree of certainty that it's going to do much better this year than if it came out in 2014-2016.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

Probably!

 

I can say with a reasonable degree of certainty that it's going to do much better this year than if it came out in 2014-2016.

agreed! 2014 release was fake by the way, 2016 was the first official date.

 

I can't tell if Dec 2019 or Dec 2022 is better for making bank.

[WittyUsername]

For reference, here’s a timeline of the announcements regarding when this film was supposed to be released.

Edited June 21, 2022 by WittyUsername

[AniNate]

I know that article was trying to keep it light but I definitely think Horner's passing threw a big wrench into their plans too. He died in June 2015 soon before that "indefinite delay" was announced. 

Edited June 21, 2022 by AniNate

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

I can't tell if Dec 2019 or Dec 2022 is better for making bank.

This is a really interesting question.

I think Dec 2019 definitely for worldwide total gross, because it would have had China at its full potential (2019 was pretty much the last time Hollywood films can fully take advantage of China without the current cinema decline due to zero-covid policy, hyper-nationalism, sabotaged release date and unpredictable bans); as well as a Russia market (which contributed quite a bit to Avatar), the exchange rate was probably better then as well. This is assuming SW EP9 release at some other time.

 

Dec 2022 probably better for domestic gross, partly because of all the inflation that's been going on, but also if you look at 2019 (with Endgame, Frozen 2, Toy Story 4, Joker and The Lion King, Spiderman and Aladdin), it had many box office phenomenon that it just felt like an overstuffed year. I kind of believe in the idea that there's only so much money to go around; and this year so far, lots of money is still left in the pocket, I think Top Gun Maverick is the genuine breakout but not sure if anything else will surprise to that extent. This kind of situation should benefit the biggest, must see in cinema films, Avatar 2 seems to have fairly light competition as well.  Barring any shocking developments with Covid, I think Avatar 2 is very well positioned domestically. 

 

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

This is a really interesting question.

I think Dec 2019 definitely for worldwide total gross, because it would have had China at its full potential (2019 was pretty much the last time Hollywood films can fully take advantage of China without the current cinema decline due to zero-covid policy, hyper-nationalism, sabotaged release date and unpredictable bans); as well as a Russia market (which contributed quite a bit to Avatar), the exchange rate was probably better then as well. This is assuming SW EP9 release at some other time.

 

Dec 2022 probably better for domestic gross, partly because of all the inflation that's been going on, but also if you look at 2019 (with Endgame, Frozen 2, Toy Story 4, Joker and The Lion King, Spiderman and Aladdin), it had many box office phenomenon that it just felt like an overstuffed year. I kind of believe in the idea that there's only so much money to go around; and this year so far, lots of money is still left in the pocket, I think Top Gun Maverick is the genuine breakout but not sure if anything else will surprise to that extent. This kind of situation should benefit the biggest, must see in cinema films, Avatar 2 seems to have fairly light competition as well.  Barring any shocking developments with Covid, I think Avatar 2 is very well positioned domestically. 

 

 

I've been pretty quiet on my worldwide predictions for this reason. It's really different now and I have to relearn how much money movies actually make worldwide.

I know that Avatar 2 will capture the hearts of audiences just as Avatar did, but I have no idea what an Avatar sized performance even makes worldwide.

Edited June 21, 2022 by IronJimbo

[AniNate]

I'm definitely glad Star Wars wasn't the movie that got delayed three years. Would've been so disappointing to wait so long just for that crap.

Edited June 21, 2022 by AniNate

[NCsoft]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

I've been pretty quiet on my worldwide predictions for this reason. It's really different now and I have to relearn how much money movies actually make worldwide.

This is why I miss the pre-pandemic days, the $4B+ worldwide predictions may seem crazy at first, but there is a certain logic behind it, it's just adapting a Avatar like run in a expanded global market. There are certain things that we can take for granted that we just can't these days. Top Gun is doing very well overseas, but we're looking at like $650M or so, missing many markets and all; not sure if Dominion can even get to $600M OS. Obviously Avatar is on a different level, but yeah, its more complicated.

 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

15 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

This is why I miss the pre-pandemic days, the $4B+ worldwide predictions may seem crazy at first, but there is a certain logic behind it, it's just adapting a Avatar like run in a expanded global market. There are certain things that we can take for granted that we just can't these days. Top Gun is doing very well overseas, but we're looking at like $650M or so, missing many markets and all; not sure if Dominion can even get to $600M OS. Obviously Avatar is on a different level, but yeah, its more complicated.

 

 

Let's look at Spiderman Pre-Pandemic and Post. I'm not interested in the totals here, more in the % split between Domestic and International. I'm also going to deduce China from the Spider-Man: Far From Home.

 

SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME (PRE)

Domestic (42%)
$390m

International - China (58%)
$542m

 

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME:

Domestic (42.3%)
$804m

International (57.7%)
$1,096m

 

Maybe things aren't as bad as we thought?

 

 

 

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by IronJimbo

[NCsoft]

56 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Let's look at Spiderman Pre-Pandemic and Post. I'm not interested in the totals here, more in the % split between Domestic and International. I'm also going to deduce China from the Spider-Man: Far From Home.

 

SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME (PRE)

Domestic (42%)
$390m

International - China (58%)
$542m

 

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME:

Domestic (42.3%)
$804m

International (57.7%)
$1,096m

 

Maybe things aren't as bad as we thought?

 

Yeah, I'd be much more pessimistic about A2's run if we haven't already seen No Way Home's run, it does boost confidence.

 

I think A2 can get a much higher international split even ignoring China just because as good as NWH has done, superhero films have pockets of weaknesses in Japan and Europe, and a high oversea ratio is either caused by a weak domestic performance, or, in Cameron's case, explosive performances with no significant weak markets. There are probably other Asian markets that Avatar can outdo NWH (India etc...) in and markets that didn't even exist back in 2009 (Saudi Arabia). 

So there is reason to be optimistic about overseas performance, missing Russia is a certainty, missing China is a probability, but market expansion and inflation still exist all around the world, we should be expecting some huge European numbers despite the exchange rates, and those oversea numbers might look spectacular (with a few question marks but upper limit very high!).

 

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by NCsoft

[IronJimbo]

33 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Yeah, I'd be much more pessimistic about A2's run if we haven't already seen No Way Home's run, it does boost confidence.

 

I think A2 can get a much higher international split even ignoring China just because as good as NWH has done, superhero films have pockets of weaknesses in Japan and Europe, and a high oversea ratio is either caused by a weak domestic performance, or, in Cameron's case, explosive performances with no significant weak markets. There are probably other Asian markets that Avatar can outdo NWH (India etc...) in and markets that didn't even exist back in 2009 (Saudi Arabia). 

So there is reason to be optimistic about overseas performance, missing Russia is a certainly, missing China is a probability, but market expansion and inflation still exist all around the world, we should be expecting some huge European numbers despite the exchange rates, and those oversea numbers might look spectacular (with a few question marks but upper limit very high!).

 

Looking at the youtube views for the teaser from Indian channels and the fact its getting released there in 5+ languages, I think India could be a market that just explodes. Yeah shame about Russia, they loved Avatar.

[Brainbug]

3 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Das ist nicht meine Kino

 

Das ist nicht mein Kino.

 

"meine" is the female form, but "Kino" is a neutral Noun which in german requires the masculine form "mein" in this case.

 

Spoiler

Spoiler

Sorry

Spoiler

I know no humour and all that i really do know

Spoiler

Sorry