Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Deep Wang]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

the real problem is assuming it will behave the same as other films. Won't it be nice to see how Cameron event movie performs in a 2015 and onwards december? Things are going to be so interesting.

 

It's going to behave a lot more like 'other films' than it will the original.  

[Fanboy]

If Top Gun: Maverick could go well past a 5 multiplier in May, Avatar 2 could certainly do it at Christmas time if WOM is spectacular. And I would argue we're not really in a drastically different era of box office from 2009. Young adult driven tentpoles like Harry Potter and Twilight were barely managing 2x multis. Even stuff like Wolverine, Fast and Furious and Watchmen struggled to double their openings. The average multiplier for most franchise films is probably not much different from what it was in 2009. 

[Alexdube]

getting some new footage today?

 

 

[Royce]

I find it interesting that the actor for Loak hasn't appeared in any interview or public event so far when his character is seemingly the biggest role out of all the new kids. Maybe he has some sort of anxiety for big public gatherings? I kinda want to hear what he has to say about his role and interactions with other actors too, oh well

 

And another thing I want to comment on: The naysayers who are obsessed with "decline this, decline that" should save all these doomsday predictions for Avatar 3 instead, that's a more fitting comparison with Fallen Kingdom, The Last Jedi, Age of Ultron, etc.

I don't think JC is introducing a new novelty hook with the other sequels, at least A2 has the impressive underwater world/underwater motion capture and new characters. And A2 DOES have a nostalgia factor. Idc what users with Marvel profile pictures have to say about that, one good look at all the excited YouTube comments under the trailers is enough evidence for me.

 

But I'm also wary of their decision to make each movie a self-contained story. I understand that an episodic format will automatically lower the gross of the follow up but that format also benefits from a "finale factor" with the last movie at least (except for every Star Wars trilogy lol). I'm not aware of other franchises that has the self-contained format and what their box office trajectories are. It's a huge gamble.

[stuart360]

I still think this can get 5x legs. It wont be easy, especially with a huge opening, and the film would have to be atleast as good an experience as the first film. I think it can do it though.

 

Anyway what about a little bit of fun. Lets have people's guesses for the domestic A2 gross by the end of New Years weekend.

 

I'm going to say $490-500mil.

 

I feel i could be lowballing it a bit, especially if its a great film and an amazing film going experience. I'm going to play it conservative though.

Its 3 weekends, and 8 week days, including 4 holiday weekdays obviously.

[XXR & Friends]

9 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I still think this can get 5x legs. It wont be easy, especially with a huge opening, and the film would have to be atleast as good an experience as the first film. I think it can do it though.

 

Anyway what about a little bit of fun. Lets have people's guesses for the domestic A2 gross by the end of New Years weekend.

 

I'm going to say $490-500mil.

 

I feel i could be lowballing it a bit, especially if its a great film and an amazing film going experience. I'm going to play it conservative though.

Its 3 weekends, and 8 week days, including 4 holiday weekdays obviously.

 

I'm in the same basic ballpark. Pencil me in for $516M.

[IronJimbo]

2 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

It's going to behave a lot more like 'other films' than it will the original.  

yes that is what you believe, and that's why you made the less than 4x club.

[Ronin46]

43 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

yes that is what you believe, and that's why you made the less than 4x club.

 

I dont see this happening now with how backloaded the pre sales are showing. Maybe 4.5 but even that seems low.

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[WittyUsername]

An OW over $150 million, with a second weekend drop below 50% sounds pretty good to me. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by WittyUsername

[Tokugennumataka]

Currently thinking (with the expectations of wom through the roof):

 

22/45/53/46 - 166M OW

24/25/23/25 - 263M first week

33/23/40 - 96M second weekend (-43%) 

44/33/29/29 - 494M by second week

32/26/35 - 93M third weekend (-3%) 

35/9/6/6 - 643M by third week. 

[SchumacherFTW]

16 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Damn christmas day ruining the anti-gravity 2 weekend drop. Oh well, 3rd weekend drop will be extra nice because of it.

New years eve has the same effect boo

[IronJimbo]

14 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

New years eve has the same effect boo

anyone else falling out of love with weekends and back in love with weekdays?

[Torontofan]

16 hours ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

Also, ROGUE ONE was mostly boring, miserable and forgettable whereas AVATAR 2 will change the face of cinema (apparently).

 

Rougue one was a gem vs the new star movies lol 

[Brainbug]

Casual reminder that Rogue One has the best 3rd act of all the new Star Wars movies and was an absolute blast in theaters back in 2016 which was fucking 6 years ago god i feel so old

[XXR & Friends]

Redid all my numbers just now and I’m sitting at $2.183B WW-C-R for A2. I’ll give myself +/- 10% wiggle room 😅

Edited November 28, 2022 by Toruk Makto XXR

[Deep Wang]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

anyone else falling out of love with weekends and back in love with weekdays?

 

You are so set on this acting just like the original in every facet, but the bottom line is that it's going to make a FUCK TON of money, I promise!

[IronJimbo]

30 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

You are so set on this acting just like the original in every facet, but the bottom line is that it's going to make a FUCK TON of money, I promise!

You seriously have it backwards. I'm the one looking at the bigger picture, you're the one pointing to individual days on the calender and saying it won't behave like the first one because of them. The big picture is Avatar: The Way of Water will dwarf other big blockbusters legs, TGM in shambles.

Edited November 28, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Deuce66]

17 hours ago, Alexdube said:

getting some new footage today?

 

 

 

From what I saw on Reddit it was a short clip of "the argument" between Jake/Neytiri and whether they need to move from their home with the kids listening in. 

 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Deuce66 said:

 

From what I saw on Reddit it was a short clip of "the argument" between Jake/Neytiri and whether they need to move from their home with the kids listening in. 

 

https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/culture/video/zoe-saldana-talks-new-film-avatar-water-94080514

 

It's exactly that, they play it at the end of this interview with Zoe.