Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[adaros]

15 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

Is the version of Avatar on Disney+ the 4K version because I watched the first half of it last night and it doesn't look as good as I remember it—or maybe because its I haven't seen it in at least 12 years and its dated.

Nope, it's old version and even worse than official Blu-ray which itself is not best transfer for home setup.

[ZeeSoh]

21 minutes ago, Nero said:

Endgame wasn't allowed an extension unfortunately 

Doubtful an extension would have added much, maybe a few millions more. CBM movies tend to be quite frontloaded in China (in fact most Hollywood movies are frontloaded in China compared to other countries). 

18 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Yeah i didnt mean that post to sound as dissmissive as it does. Its total is obviously fantastic, i just would of thought Endgame would of been like 800+mil in China.

It was the 4th highest grossing movie in China at the time and almost doubled Infinity War's gross. I doubt there was much more potential for it at China's box office in 2019. 

16 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

I'm no expert in evaluating presales data but $200m would require a lot of walk-up business, wouldn't it? Definitely not impossible since it's not as fanboy driven but man, expectations are getting really high. I don't want to get disappointed when it doesn't quite hit those numbers! 

Presales for now look like converging around 20m (still many days to go and that could change). 200m will require at least 10x multi assuming 20m previews. Only 2 movies that have grossed 200m+ have had more than 10x multi and they are Jurassic World and the first Avengers movie. Blockbusters have tended to become more frontloaded over the years and Avatar is already more hyped up than those 2 movies imo. So a 10x will be difficult but obviously not impossible. If it can manage more than 20m in previews then that makes things easier (something like 22m or more). 

[kayumanggi]

[XXR & Friends]

10 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

It was the 4th highest grossing movie in China at the time and almost doubled Infinity War's gross. I doubt there was much more potential for it at China's box office in 2019. 

 

Correct. Also to point out that if Endgame had ATWOW current ATP in China, that would amount to roughly $880M. Obviously this isn't an apples-to-apples comparison.

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

For reference, F9 opened to $136M.

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

For reference, F9 opened to $136M.

 

ok i'm pretty good at maths, 136 * 2 = $272m, this sounds a bit too high...

[kayumanggi]

So:

 

China > North America for OW and total? 🤔

[Warmaster506]

It's possible

[Andreas]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

So:

 

China > North America for OW and total? 🤔

OW probably, Total probably not

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

ok i'm pretty good at maths, 136 * 2 = $272m, this sounds a bit too high...

 

Probably....

But not definitely 👀

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

So:

 

China > North America for OW and total? 🤔

 

Just now, Andreas said:

OW probably, Total probably not

 

Agreed with @Andreas

[Ozymandias]

I hope it makes an insane amount of money($1 billion USD) in China for the lulz.

 

 

[Dragoncaine]

2 hours ago, Elessar said:

 

I'm no expert in evaluating presales data but $200m would require a lot of walk-up business, wouldn't it? Definitely not impossible since it's not as fanboy driven but man, expectations are getting really high. I don't want to get disappointed when it doesn't quite hit those numbers! 

Haha yeah, Deadline is not exactly a precise calculator for incoming grosses, but I thought it was a cool blurb to show that they're considering the possibility. Agreed with XXR that it would need some insane walkups. I'm still banking on $180-190m, which, let's be clear, would be a fantastic result.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Dragoncaine

[hw64]

Just now, Dragoncaine said:

Haha yeah, Deadline is not exactly a precise calculator for incoming grosses, but I thought it was a cool blurb to show that they're considering the possibility. Agreed with XXR that it would need some insane walkups. I'm still banking on $180-190m

 

Just for clarification so nobody is confused by this, when Deadline says up to $200m I'm almost certain they're just referring back to their original projection article here where they say "rival [studios] are bullish at $200m."

[Sheldon Cr]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

ok i'm pretty good at maths, 136 * 2 = $272m, this sounds a bit too high...

Lol Jimbo . ?? What is the OW projection for Avatar 2 in China now. Im hoping for 200-250M and just long  long legs till Feb

Edited December 10, 2022 by Sheldon Cr

[IronJimbo]

18 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Lol Jimbo . ?? What is the OW projection for A2 now. Im hoping for 200-250M and just long  long legs till Feb

 

the following is for domestic, sry if you meant china:

haven't really seen anything to make me change my $190m opening weekend prediction, BOP are usually accurate with their opening weekends but I do think they're underestimating just how backloaded this film is going to be and how powerful the WOM will be. I'm expecting massive walkups and now that I'm within BOP's tracking range (what $160-192m?) I feel like it's probably going to exceed those expectations by a little bit

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Firepower]

4 hours ago, TRISTAN said:

Even Forrest Gump is 5 times better than Maverick if you want to compare movies on the basis of Emotion and that movie has an extraordinary tale of an ordinary man. TGM's all the characters are so paper thin that it would crumble if tiny ant would walk over them.

I disagree, Maverick is a well-written character here with a good character arc and personal conflict. Rooster is about as well written as he should be here. The rest are not supposed to be anything more than likable supporting cast with one or two identifiable traits, I'd argue John Hamm's character is a bit more complex than that by the end of the movie, The script is fully focused on Maverick and his relationship with Rooster, the rest just support this story and they are not supposed to be super deep three-dimensional characters, the movie is not about them. It's a good story about complicated relationship between father and son set against dangerous mission and also good story about passage of time and dealing with guilt. It's not supposed to be Shawshank Redemption in terms of emotion, but it's still very emotional, definitely more emotional than many films of its type and one of the reasons it had its terrific legs.

[dignam]

TGMaverick was awesome.👍

Edited December 10, 2022 by dignam

[Sheldon Cr]

56 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

the following is for domestic, sry if you meant china:

haven't really seen anything to make me change my $190m opening weekend prediction, BOP are usually accurate with their opening weekends but I do think they're underestimating just how backloaded this film is going to be and how powerful the WOM will be. I'm expecting massive walkups and now that I'm within BOP's tracking range (what $160-192m?) I feel like it's probably going to exceed those expectations by a little bit

 

Yeah I feel 190-205 OW is awesome. Heck even 160M is awesome. This is Winter and in Pandemic Era so nothing to be sad about..

This film was always about legendary Legs,, but Im feeling so much  is coming from walkups.. All those Titanic and Avatar fans who are watching all the good news and spectacle and now definitely coming in to purchase their voyage again to Pandora. 

 

Only 6 days or so to see the Pandora Power rise above all the rest my brother.... Are you going to the first OW or around OW2 or OW3 :)?

 

Also Im thinking 250-260M OW for China.. Any thoughts?

Edited December 10, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
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