Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, Verrows said:

I really want to hear from @charlie Jatinder about the state of admissions in Canada. It feels like theatres are still really struggling here compared to the US. OW for Wakanda Forever did not feel like an $181M opening and the sets at the theatre I'm seeing Avatar at are really underwhelming, as are sales.

 

maybe it's the same in the US and it really is the inflation that's propping up the numbers. Either way it's been so long since I've been in a truly crowded theatre with that electric buzz.

It's a number of things; Inflation is cutting into family's entertainment budgets, and there is no doubt that streaming has hurt theater attendence.

 

I think Avatar 2 will be a huge hit, but not pheonmenal the way the first one was.

[LPLC]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Because NWH is a frontloaded movie and Avatar isn't? 

 

I don't know about 100M, but it should be higher than NWH despite opening way lower

No because Christmas and NWH is not very frontloaded, it had great legs for that opening

[Verrows]

2 minutes ago, dudalb said:

It's a number of things; Inflation is cutting into family's entertainment budgets, and there is no doubt that streaming has hurt theater attendence.

 

I think Avatar 2 will be a huge hit, but not pheonmenal the way the first one was.

Yeah but I'm wondering if it's even more so in Canada. The way theatres here (at least the main one I go to) look I'm surprised Doctor Strange and Black Panther for to $180M.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, LPLC said:

NWH made $84M after a $260M weekend last year, why do you all expect a second weekend around 100M for A2 ?

I think something around $60M is more likely

A2 will be opning much lower than Spidey, and A2 dosnt have that comic book fanboy 'i must see this opening weekend' demand that superhero movies have.

 

Not all films drop so big on christmas weekend. And yes i'm probably being overly optimistic but at the same time i feel if its lower than that, it just means the weekdays will be hgher.

 

I mean Spidey would probably of dropped 50-60% on a normal second weekend, after opening so big.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, LPLC said:

No because Christmas and NWH is not very frontloaded, it had great legs for that opening

Yes it did, still 3x is frontloaded for Christmas

 

Avatar should go above 3x before the new years 

[LPLC]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

A2 will be opning much lower than Spidey, and A2 dosnt have that comic book fanboy 'i must see this opening weekend' demand that superhero movies have.

 

Not all films drop so big on christmas weekend. And yes i'm probably being overly optimistic but at the same time i feel if its lower than that, it just means the weekdays will be hgher.

 

I mean Spidey would probably of dropped 50-60% on a normal second weekend, after opening so big.

Yes weekdays will be great but not the second weekend

Edited December 13, 2022 by LPLC

[LPLC]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yes it did, still 3x is frontloaded for Christmas

 

Avatar should go above 3x before the new years 

Yes maybe 4 or 5 but a second weekend with that configuration is awful

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

I want this to do well, not just because I am a fan, but because the holiday-winter season has been sad. 😅 We need this to give life to this lackluster season.

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, hw64 said:

 

I've definitely been critical of some predictions, sure, perhaps even dismissively so on a couple of occasions over the past few days for which I'd apologise to those affected, but there's a big difference between being critical and essentially softly suggesting that everyone molds their predictions to a range that you've deemed to be appropriate.

 

Some humility is needed here. The tracking thread is incredible, but the data is still largely limited to Thursday previews, and it tells us very little about how backloaded the movie is going to be over its opening weekend or how heavy the walk-ups will be. If any movie is likely to behave unusually and break precedent, it is Avatar 2, so it's simply unwise to rely on the idea that Avatar 2 will behave within established parameters in terms of backloading/walk-ups.

I see your point, but there does exist a degree of predictability here. We all know that Cameron movies can surprise with their word of mouth and "backloadedness", but it's not going to go too far off the very beaten box office path, especially at a time when (Top Gun notwithstanding) people's behaviour is more predictable than ever coming off the pandemic.

 

This will have a strong internal multi and good legs. No doubt. But this isn't 2012. We will not see a $200M opening off of $18m-$20M previews. If we were living in that reality then even TGM - the long of unexpected WoM monsters - would have had a much bigger opening than it did. Instead, it legged it out, which most of us expect Avatar to as well.

 

I do feel you though. It probably feels like some of us are throwing a wet blanket over something really exciting. At the end of the day though I think our more experienced trackers would just rather give it to people straight.

[kayumanggi]

I'm finally going to see this tomorrow. Going to see it in 2D first since that's what my schedule permits. I'll try to see it in the most modern IMAX here next. I've never been this excited for a movie in a long time. 😀 I hope we all have an amazing moviegoing experience with this one.

[GOGODanca]

any new reviews pouring out after the premiere?

[Verrows]

37 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Because NWH is a frontloaded movie and Avatar isn't? 

 

I don't know about 100M, but it should be higher than NWH despite opening way lower

It's not about frontloadedness thouugh. It's about the calendar configuration with Christmas Eve landing on the biggest moviegoing day of the year - Saturday. 

 

The Force Awakens had a phenomenal drop but that's only because it has the most perfect calendar configuration that exists for its second weekend - Christmas on Friday and Boxing Day on Saturday. Christmas Eve was out of the way on Thursday. And even then I don't think that will be replicated, even with that calendar configuration (perfect storm of calendar, word of mouth and pent up demand). Next time will be 2026, the year Avatar 4 opens. I believe it's scheduled for the 18th, which for me is the #1 date on the calendar.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Verrows

[Verrows]

49 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

The thing for me is the 3 weekends should be around the 350mil range, meaning we would need 150 mil from 8 week days, with 4 of those days being holiday days. It could easily gross 200mil from those 8 weekdays if you really think about it.

 

I see something like -

 

160mil OW (i'm still prediciting 181mil, but being conservative for this question)

110mil Christmas weekend

90mil New Years weekend (feel this could even hit 100mil)

 

Thats 360mil from the weekends.

 

70-80mil from the launch week weekdays.

100-120mil from Christmas week weekdays.

 

530-560mil total

 

Of course i'm basing these numbers on amazing WOM, and the film dragging the young and old to the cienema, like the orig film did.

 

Oh you sweet child.

[jedijake]

The first Avatar was slow to start but was consistent because it was an unknown entity. It's word of mouth built on its unknown status. Avatar 2 is now a known entity with a reputation and being long-awaited. But yet there are no must-see spoilers. It's kind of unprecedented in that nobody knows which way it will go. I predict about a  50% drop in its second weekend and a 25-30% drop in the third., The first mid-week won't be as strong as some may guess, but the second mid-week is where it will go crazy.

 

OW: $150 m

midweek:$80m

Wknd2: $75 m ($305m)

midweek: $110m

Wknd3: $52m ($467m)

midweek: $30m

Wknd4: $28m ($525m)

TOTAL: $630-$660 m (4.0-4.4X)

Edited December 13, 2022 by jedijake

[Verrows]

4 minutes ago, jedijake said:

The first Avatar was slow to start but was consistent because it was an unknown entity. It's word of mouth built on its unknown status. Avatar 2 is now a known entity with a reputation and being long-awaited. But yet there are no must-see spoilers. It's kind of unprecedented in that nobody knows which way it will go. I predict about a  50% drop in its second weekend and a 25-30% drop in the third., The first mid-week won't be as strong as some may guess, but the second mid-week is where it will go crazy.

 

OW: $150 m

midweek:$80m

Wknd2: $75 m ($305m)

midweek: $110m

Wknd3: $52m ($467m)

midweek: $30m

Wknd4: $28m ($525m)

TOTAL: $630-$660 m (4.0-4.4X)

That looks really reasonable to me. Like I said before, a Rogue One opening with a Last Jedi total. Well, a little bigger than TLJ but yeah.

[KJsooner]

7 minutes ago, jedijake said:

The first Avatar was slow to start but was consistent because it was an unknown entity. It's word of mouth built on its unknown status. Avatar 2 is now a known entity with a reputation and being long-awaited. But yet there are no must-see spoilers. It's kind of unprecedented in that nobody knows which way it will go. I predict about a  50% drop in its second weekend and a 25-30% drop in the third., The first mid-week won't be as strong as some may guess, but the second mid-week is where it will go crazy.

 

OW: $150 m

midweek:$80m

Wknd2: $75 m ($305m)

midweek: $110m

Wknd3: $52m ($467m)

midweek: $30m

Wknd4: $28m ($525m)

TOTAL: $630-$660 m (4.0-4.4X)

Pretty reasonable numbers. 

[hw64]

4 minutes ago, Verrows said:

This will have a strong internal multi and good legs. No doubt. But this isn't 2012. We will not see a $200M opening off of $18m-$20M previews. If we were living in that reality then even TGM - the long of unexpected WoM monsters - would have had a much bigger opening than it did. Instead, it legged it out, which most of us expect Avatar to as well.

 

I don't think that Avatar 2 is getting close to a $200m opening weekend, but I don't agree at all that TG:M not having a bigger opening precludes Avatar 2 from having a very high IM — they're very different films.

 

7 minutes ago, Verrows said:

I do feel you though. It probably feels like some of us are throwing a wet blanket over something really exciting. At the end of the day though I think our more experienced trackers would just rather give it to people straight.

 

That's not it at all — far from being dampened by them, I just simply don't agree with some of the conclusions that are being thrown around. I'd only be dampened by them if I believed them to be unequivocally 100% correct, which I don't (and nobody should, in my opinion).

[ThomasNicole]

Overall, this fanbase has to be one of the most peaceful and sweet i've ever seen 

 

I even think they should be aggressive sometimes lol, people are really unnecessarily mean to this movie on social media

 

 

[Verrows]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

I don't think that Avatar 2 is getting close to a $200m opening weekend, but I don't agree at all that TG:M not having a bigger opening precludes Avatar 2 from having a very high IM — they're very different films.

 

 

That's not it at all — far from being dampened by them, I just simply don't agree with some of the conclusions that are being thrown around. I'd only be dampened by them if I believed them to be unequivocally 100% correct, which I don't (and nobody should, in my opinion).

Fair enough.