Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[SchumacherFTW]

43 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

 

I disagree with few of your points.

 

- First of all a movie with Best Picture nomination in the Critics Choice it doesn't have just okay reviews.

Audience reception seems great in all the countries (based on different ranking systems in every country)

 

- 3D no longer a selling point it seems wrong because the screens with best format are selling out and are not enough of them.

Are those PLFs selling out because they're 3D or just because they're a premium experience? I'd wager the demand in PLF would be the same if the movie was in 2D, this movie needs bigger, brighter, more colourful screens than it does 3D.

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Are those PLFs selling out because they're 3D or just because they're a premium experience? I'd wager the demand in PLF would be the same if the movie was in 2D, this movie needs bigger, brighter, more colourful screens than it does 3D.

Bit of both, I think people know they're meant to see this on the best and biggest screen possible. They also know the 3D is meant to be really good and that Avatar is known for it's 3D.

 

I can't see this film in anything but 48fps 3D on a huge, bright and clear screen now. So I'm also the same as the general audience. Interestingly, I think this film will work in 2D better than the original (which worked well in 2D)

 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by IronJimbo

[stripe]

Rogue One looks to be a good starting point to compare, thanks to its days matching.

RO Sunday was 37.7M, close to Avatar 2 Sunday. With that in mind, these could be the grosses for the following days.

Monday 18.5M

Tuesday 19M

Wednesday 17.5M

Thursday 19M

Friday 27M

Saturday 19M

Sunday 32M (78M second weekend)

Monday 39M 

325M after December 26th, but it could go higher

 

Add 170M for the rest of the Holidays, and another 130M for the rest of its run.

600-650M is were it should/could land if it can't deliver Cameron's movie like sexy legs

[adaros]

26 minutes ago, stripe said:

Some possible explanations to OW "underperforming". 

- Not upfront demand like with other franchises. Some deciding to go during Holidays.

- 3 hours+ runtime

- bad weather

- backlash from first movie

- deeply depressed market

- world cup

Biggest markets were overpredicted and underperformed.

If US did additional $10-20m, China $30-50m, UK 4-5m + Japan and OW hit $500m there would be different talk, but it is what it is, underperformance in biggest markets, And in some countries like India that did great ER are rekting gross in $.

[stripe]

34 minutes ago, adaros said:

Biggest markets were overpredicted and underperformed.

If US did additional $10-20m, China $30-50m, UK 4-5m + Japan and OW hit $500m there would be different talk, but it is what it is, underperformance in biggest markets, And in some countries like India that did great ER are rekting gross in $.

 

Yeah, it's more our fault overpredicting the OW than the film really underperforming or floping. Things can change over the following days, though. Let's see what happens!

 

[nydedan]

china's boxoffice is really a shame tbh (I say this as a Chinese)

[Deep Wang]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

if it was a regular weekend i would say 10-30% drop, I will have to do more research on how Christmas eve Sat and Christman sunday will effect it

 

You've had over 2 years to research this lmao 😆

 

3 hours ago, JimiQ said:

I was expecting low 30s drop, because Cameron, big 25th and big 23rd (school’s out…), but I have been told that’s too optimistic and best A2 can hope for is around 40% drop.

 

but I still think my fundaments are there.

35% to 30% drop would be $87M-$94M

 

What fundaments are they exactly?

 

I showed my math here in this post: 

 

 

Obviously, it's not going to follow those drops exactly, but you still need a very strong Friday.  I think it could have a better Sunday increase, but I also think it could have a worse Saturday decrease because of the length.  

 

Obviously this will all be moot in a day when we get Monday's number and we will know the path we are on lol.

[JustLurking]

Remember reading there's going to be a storm sweeping south mostly fri-sat on top of poor calendar configuration so wouldn't get my hopes up on amazing hold 2nd weekend tbh.

 

Still it's the holidays, I don't really get why you guys are so fixated on a 2nd weekend drop that can't be great no matter what on this calendar configuration. It has plenty of time to leg out if it's going to.

[stuart360]

I could still see 80mil Christmas and 70mil New Years weeknd.

 

Having said that, what i think people forget, myself included, is just how long this film is. The slots at my multiplex were 3hrs 50min pr showing.

It could simply mean that legs could be even longer than some of us already believe.

 

Still think we are going to need the 4th weekend number to truley no where this film is going.

Edited December 19, 2022 by stuart360

[JimiQ]

26 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

You've had over 2 years to research this lmao 😆

 

 

What fundaments are they exactly?

 

I showed my math here in this post: 

 

 

Obviously, it's not going to follow those drops exactly, but you still need a very strong Friday.  I think it could have a better Sunday increase, but I also think it could have a worse Saturday decrease because of the length.  

 

Obviously this will all be moot in a day when we get Monday's number and we will know the path we are on lol.

First one dropped 2% (yeah, I know, blizzard and different calendar configuration)

fullness of 3D screens, willingness of people to wait (low spoilerability)

backloadedness of presales

I mean - ten years have been people repeating “don’t bet against James Cameron” and suddenly everyone does exactly that

 

I will gladly admit I have been wrong - after the fact. Till then I should be allowed some benefit of doubt

[dignam]

Seems like covid restrictions are getting softer in china. Even with covid symptoms people can go to work.

[GipJo]

4 minutes ago, dignam said:

Seems like covid restrictions are getting softer in china. Even with covid symptoms people can go to work.

Covid restrictions have been completely lifted. What you said is just a policy for public resources.  Places like local government and medical systems are in shortage of manpower because of covid, this policy allows people return to work as soon as possible so the shortage doesn't become a serious problem. Private companies can decide themselves how to handle their positive employees.

Edited December 19, 2022 by GipJo

[eridani]

What's a better way to experience the movie in 3D?

large IMAX auditorium with two previous gen 2K projectors (xenon lamps)

or

"regular" large screen auditorium with a single 4K laser projector?

 

If you have experience with those two types of projections, please vote by using Leo Di Caprio thanks emoji for IMAX option and Stanley Tucci astonished emoji for the 4K option.

 

Thank you.

 

 

[Deep Wang]

24 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

First one dropped 2% (yeah, I know, blizzard and different calendar configuration)

fullness of 3D screens, willingness of people to wait (low spoilerability)

backloadedness of presales

I mean - ten years have been people repeating “don’t bet against James Cameron” and suddenly everyone does exactly that

 

I will gladly admit I have been wrong - after the fact. Till then I should be allowed some benefit of doubt

 

Benefit of the doubt when your reasoning is, "Because James Cameron" is pretty funny lol.

 

It's really funny that nobody gets me to do more work than Cameron fans.  I went all out in researching Alita comps before release and argued with @IronJimbo back and forth and my OW prediction about a month before release was actually really close.  But, all the arguments against my research were basically the same, even though Cameron didn't direct it.

[stuart360]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Benefit of the doubt when your reasoning is, "Because James Cameron" is pretty funny lol.

 

It's really funny that nobody gets me to do more work than Cameron fans.  I went all out in researching Alita comps before release and argued with @IronJimbo back and forth and my OW prediction about a month before release was actually really close.  But, all the arguments against my research were basically the same, even though Cameron didn't direct it.

It would of been interesting to see how the Alita film would of turned out, film wise and box office wise, if Cameron had directed.

I remember years ago when Cameron was attached to direct,. i was thinking is there anyway he can get something like Alita to be as big as Titanic and AVATAR.

Probably not but i think the film would of done a lot better than it ended up doing.

[adaros]

30 minutes ago, eridani said:

What's a better way to experience the movie in 3D?

large IMAX auditorium with two previous gen 2K projectors (xenon lamps)

or

"regular" large screen auditorium with a single 4K laser projector?

 

If you have experience with those two types of projections, please vote by using Leo Di Caprio thanks emoji for IMAX option and Stanley Tucci astonished emoji for the 4K option.

 

Thank you.

 

 

go see it two times so you can compare both

[JimiQ]

36 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Benefit of the doubt when your reasoning is, "Because James Cameron" is pretty funny lol.

 

It's really funny that nobody gets me to do more work than Cameron fans.  I went all out in researching Alita comps before release and argued with @IronJimbo back and forth and my OW prediction about a month before release was actually really close.  But, all the arguments against my research were basically the same, even though Cameron didn't direct it.

Wait wait wait. I am no Cameron fan. I want A2 end below NWH, if it were possible then below TGM.

I was pretty adamite anti-cameronite before covid (IW-EG era).

But I see what he managed to do before and I see certain fundaments speaking in his favor.

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

Wait wait wait. I am no Cameron fan. I want A2 end below NWH, if it were possible then below TGM.

I was pretty adamite anti-cameronite before covid (IW-EG era).

But I see what he managed to do before and I see certain fundaments speaking in his favor.

 

Cameron fan or not, you are still expecting it to do behave certain ways because that's what his (last 2) movies did, right?

[JimiQ]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Cameron fan or not, you are still expecting it to do behave certain ways because that's what his (last 2) movies did, right?

I expect it to behave in the middle between regular blockbuster and his two previous movies  (no drop vs 55% ~ 30%-ish drop)

[Andreas]

Second biggest opening weekend OF ALL TIME in Romania.

 

6.305.847 RON ($1.36M), probably over 200K admissions.

 

COMPS:

2.05 x Doctor Strange 2

1.94 x Spider-Man: No Way Home

1.5 x Avengers: Endgame

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Andreas