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grim22

Weekend #s on Pg 34. Divergent 56M. Muppets 16.5M. Peabody 11.7M, 302 8.6M, Gods not dead 8.5M

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Barring some quasi-miraculous bump from the west coast later tonight, looks like I dropped the ball on Divergent. Sorry, folks. :(

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Shawn: Moderator John, the number projections have come out and we'll need to revise an- aarrgggh

CJohn: You have failed me for the last time, Administrator.

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Shawn: Moderator John, the number projections have come out and we'll need to revise an- aarrgggh

CJohn: You have failed me for the last time, Administrator.

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I'm not so optimistic about the legs of Muppets Most Wanted, given how family audiences will be torn between it, Mr. Peabody, and then Rio in 3 weeks.  They should have spread these 3 movies out an extra week from each other.  One website (ShowBuzz Daily) has Muppets ending at 100 million DOM.  I think that's a joke because of the competition from the other 2 movies.  I would say it ends at 70 million DOM.

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<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote' data-author="Ozymandias" data-cid="1302956" data-time="1395449770"><p><img src='<a class='bbc_url' href='http://geekleagueofamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/sly.jpg>http://geekleagueofamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/sly.jpg</a>' alt='Posted Image' class='bbc_img' /></p></blockquote>I still wouldPosted Image

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http://variety.com/2014/film/news/box-office-divergent-wobbles-may-not-hit-60-million-plus-launch-1201142286/

 

One estimate predicted “Divergent” would take $22.5 million at 3,936 locations on Friday — including $4.9 million from late shows Thursday — and wind up in the $50 million to $53 million range by the end of the weekend.

 

Friday forecasts also showed a substantial skid for Disney’s family-friendly “Muppets Most Wanted,” with tracking declining from $25 million to $20 million. Friday’s estimate for “Muppets” came in around $5.5 million.

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Barring some quasi-miraculous bump from the west coast later tonight, looks like I dropped the ball on Divergent. Sorry, folks. :(

 

didn't you predict 66m?

imo the weekend looks close to it.

 

25 (5 + 20)

22 (-12%)

15 (-32%)

62 ow

 

where am i overestimating?

 

EDIT: I see that HG fell 25% on Sat and Twilight fell 40%. Maybe that's where.

So 25 + 18(-25%) + 12(-33.4%) = 55 ow looks like the ceiling.

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Sources tell BoxOffice that Divergent could be looking at around $25 million for Friday based on matinee and early evening business. From there, the adaptation will likely be looking at a $55-57 million weekend.

 
Muppets Most Wanted is off to a healthy start, as well. Sources tell BoxOffice that the sequel is on pace to bring in $6.5 million today, giving it a shot at $22+ million for the weekend.
 

 

 

That would be huge.  Might hit ~65Mish with 25M.  

 

What was the average prediction?  Looks like we're heading for high 50s, low 60s, which seems pretty in line IMO.  

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I'm not so optimistic about the legs of Muppets Most Wanted, given how family audiences will be torn between it, Mr. Peabody, and then Rio in 3 weeks.  They should have spread these 3 movies out an extra week from each other.  One website (ShowBuzz Daily) has Muppets ending at 100 million DOM.  I think that's a joke because of the competition from the other 2 movies.  I would say it ends at 70 million DOM.

 

Agreed. I can't see more than a 3.250 multiplier for the Muppets 2. The first film was well received put had poor legs for a family film. I see a 65M finish for this. Not great but solid. 

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