Early Friday Numbers: New Years Eve - 5M / The Sitter - 3.75M / Breaking Dawn P1 - 2.5M

[CJohn]

FRIDAY 11:30 PM: I sound like a broken record because it’s another disappointing domestic box office. And the second weekend in a row where the overall movie total won’t make more than $80M for possibly 2011′s lowest haul. It’s also down 8% from last year. No surprises in the Top 10 since Warner Bros’ New Years Eve was expected to unseat Summit’s Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 after three straight weeks at No. 1. But what is alarming is that the latest in this holiday-themed franchise is coming in way less than the studio predicted — between $5.3M and $5.8M –especially with all those name actors and actresses cast. Showing yet again that in 2011 stars don’t mean much to audiences anymore. Audiences gave it a ‘B+’ CinemaScore. “Not much champagne for that opening,” one rival exec snarked to me. Fox’s The Sitter came in second but worse than the lowered expectations going into this North American weekend. Audiences gave it only a ‘C+’ CinemaScore. Good thing this Jonah Hill pic cost next to nothing. Full analysis in the morning when Deadline Hollywood will be holding its movie awards season ‘The Contenders’ event this Saturday and Sunday:

1. New Years Eve (Warner Bros) NEW [3,505 Theaters]

Friday $5.5M, Estimated Weekend $16M

2. The Sitter (Fox) NEW [2,750 Theaters]

Friday $3.5M, Estimated Weekend $9M

3. Breaking Dawn Part 1 (Summit) Week 4 [3,605 Theaters]

Friday $2.4M, Estimated Weekend $7M, Estimated Cume $258.8M

4. The Muppets (Disney) Week 3 [3,328 Theaters]

Friday $1.7M, Estimated Weekend $7M, Estimated Cume $65.7M

5. Hugo (Paramount) Week 3 [2,608 Theaters]

Friday $1.6M, Estimated Weekend $6M, Estimated Cume $33.3M

6. Arthur Christmas (Sony) Week 3 [3,272 Theaters]

Friday $1.5M, Estimated Weekend $6.5M, Estimated Cume $33.4M

7. The Descendants (Fox Searchlight) Week 4 [876 Theaters]

Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $4.3M, Estimated Cume $23.5M

8. Happy Feet Two (Warner Bros) Week 4 [2,840 Theaters]

Friday $950K, Estimated Weekend $4M, Estimated Cume $57.1M

9. Jack and Jill (Sony) Week 5 [2,787 Theaters]

Friday $875K, Estimated Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $68.4M

10. Immortals (Relativity) Week 5 [2,286 Theaters]

Friday $750K, Estimated Weekend $2.5M, Estimated Cume $79.9m

Specialty Openings: Paramount’s The Adventures Of Tintin is having a great start in North America’s Quebec after a very successful European run. Focus Features’ European hit Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is looking at big per screen averages in its 4 runs: NYC’s Lincoln Square – $21,086 and NYC’s Village $24,106. Paramount’s Young Adult is looking soft in 8 theaters based on per screen averages: NYC’s Lincoln Square – $11,304, NYC’s Union Square – $18,511, Minnesota’s Uptown - $4,709.

Edited December 10, 2011 by baumer

[Travod]

But didn't Valentine's Day make a bajillion on OW?

[Fake]

I couldn't care less about the openers.But that seems like a decent hold for Muppets. Is 100M still possible.

[glassfairy]

Wow if that NYE number holds. I suppose I underestimated humanity because I honestly thought it would do twice that. Faith in the human race is now partially restored.

[FilmBuff]

Patiently waiting for next weekend's openers, might have 3 openers over 60 million.

[Gopher]

Really poor for NYE. I guess people learned their lesson after the travesty of Valentine's Day (and apparently this is worse).BD1 continues to hold better than NM. Definitely stands a chance at beating NM/DH1's totals now.Muppets/Hugo/Arthur thankfully don't drop much at all. Otherwise, jesus, people better be saving their money for Sherlock or MI4 or something. The box office is DEAD.

Edited December 10, 2011 by Gopher

[Gopher]

Patiently waiting for next weekend's openers, might have 3 openers over 60 million.

I see 65 for Sherlock, 35 for Alvin, and 8 for MI4 (20k average). None will have especially huge starts, but should play huge over the next two weeks.

[CJohn]

Those are some bad/boring numbers.

[Impact]

The calm before hurricaine Sherlock and Alvin ;)And my club is looking good so far.

[FTF]

I see 65 for Sherlock, 35 for Alvin, and 8 for MI4 (20k average). None will have especially huge starts, but should play huge over the next two weeks.

$8m OW for MI4? What # did you really mean?

[John Marston]

Good hold for Muppets but it's expected. Not reaching 100

[kells]

That'd be a good number for BD. Creeping up on NM.

[Totem]

Next weekend is were the action is.

[Gopher]

Fox should have opened We Bought a Zoo this weekend. The Sitter could have opened to nothing at any time of the year. This is a movie that will supposedly have great WOM and needs some going into the holidays if it wants to compete with the big movies. I'm sure a lot of people will complain that studios should have put so and so movie this weekend, but Zoo makes the most sense to me.

[FTF]

MI4 really should have come out this weekend.

[FilmBuff]

8 million dollars OW for MI:GP?Notsureifserious.jpg

[Gopher]

8 million dollars OW for MI:GP?Notsureifserious.jpg

It's in 400 theaters next weekend. Goes wide the 21st.

[Taylor]

I think he meant $8m for when it opens on 400 screens next weekend. But that's only sneaks and wouldn't count, right?

[Kvikk Lunsj]

MI4 really should have come out this weekend.

no idea why Paramount did not do it.

[Fake]

That should count.