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iceroll

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 OS Thread | 415m OS, 751m WW

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I dont see a huge increase for Part 1. Even CF did not have anywhere close to increase that new moon had. Eclipse actually decreased Even if we extrapolate Twilight to BD1, its not going to increase that much. Part 1's dont explode. Definitely after a sequel. I would say 450-475m at best. it can also barely drop if reception is weak which is possible with splitting a book that is considered to be weakest.

 

Also CF did bad in china. That is a market generally a catalyst in huge increases. Plus did not do great in LA like Twilight series. its strength is developed markets where potential for increases are limited.

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I believe that 500OS is maybe locked!

:D

550m probably

CF had bigger competiton(Frozen,Hobbit 2)

 

Frozen, although making 900m OS, was not really big competition, Id say. CF is part of a strong franchise with a core loyal base, and Frozens overseas run was very spread out after smaller openings in many markets.

And will MJ1 not have Hobbit 3 (potentially bigger competition) given that its the series finale?

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I dont see a huge increase for Part 1. Even CF did not have anywhere close to increase that new moon had. Eclipse actually decreased Even if we extrapolate Twilight to BD1, its not going to increase that much. Part 1's dont explode. Definitely after a sequel. I would say 450-475m at best. it can also barely drop if reception is weak which is possible with splitting a book that is considered to be weakest.

 

Also CF did bad in china. That is a market generally a catalyst in huge increases. Plus did not do great in LA like Twilight series. its strength is developed markets where potential for increases are limited.

 

Well...it's China. 

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I dont see a huge increase for Part 1. Even CF did not have anywhere close to increase that new moon had. Eclipse actually decreased Even if we extrapolate Twilight to BD1, its not going to increase that much. Part 1's dont explode. Definitely after a sequel. I would say 450-475m at best. it can also barely drop if reception is weak which is possible with splitting a book that is considered to be weakest.

 

Also CF did bad in china. That is a market generally a catalyst in huge increases. Plus did not do great in LA like Twilight series. its strength is developed markets where potential for increases are limited.

 

Remember that some developing markets catch up to franchises slower than US. There is a chance that while viewers didn't see HG much in China they like it and there will be a big bonus this part.

 

Anyone has any news on how it was rated on chinease movie sites?

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CF was able to increase from 280 to 440 since it was a sequel. But this is the first part of a divided book. This kind of movies have always stayed, more or less, flat: Harry Potter, Twilight, Hobbit or even LOTR. The final chapter is which usually explodes.

 

IMHO, this will manage similar numbers to CF, maybe in 460-480 range, but no more. Since I am expecting a drop DOM, it could finish with a similar number than CF WW.

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470M

 

The biggest increase will come with part 2, which I think could pull 560-580. Still, this franchise has a lot of room to grow OS. A slight increase is in play, but not a giant one like from #1 to #2

 

Are there overseas release dates set? A China date?

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I'm skeptical about $500M. Probably not that high. My guesstimate a year ago was $465M and I'm sticking with that. What's trickier is the NA gross. I'm sure everyone betting on a decrease from CF but they were also betting on a decrease of CF from THG. Who knows...

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I'm skeptical about $500M. Probably not that high. My guesstimate a year ago was $465M and I'm sticking with that. What's trickier is the NA gross. I'm sure everyone betting on a decrease from CF but they were also betting on a decrease of CF from THG. Who knows...

I still think there could be a decrease in NA, but I also think it will still wind up over 400M

 

Whatever is loses (if anything) domestic, it will make up for OS, and the WW total will be higher than Catching Fire!

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