Official Weekend Estimates: Maleficent - 70M, X-Men - 32.6M, A Million Ways - 17.1M, Godzilla - 12.2M

[reddevil18]

The thing about your statement as it relates to X-Men is that this was supposed to be that unique movie. It was combining the old cast with the new cast in the same movie. It was being called the X-Men version of The Avengers (although I never understood that comparison).

I agree with Shawn that it was unique in what it brought to the table. The scale of the movie, though, was far more intimate than expected, and incomparable to TA. As I said, with DOFP, the franchise is back on track, with a quality, 650 million+ movie. Apocalypse will test its limits in terms of possible audience expansion, as that will deliver the scale...hopefully.

[reddevil18]

Watch DOFP get like a 70%+ Sat increase or something and throw us all for a loop again.

85%

[Walt Disney]

I agree with Shawn that it was unique in what it brought to the table. The scale of the movie, though, was far more intimate than expected, and incomparable to TA. As I said, with DOFP, the franchise is back on track, with a quality, 650 million+ movie. Apocalypse will test its limits in terms of possible audience expansion, as that will deliver the scale...hopefully.

 

I completely accept what you and Shawn are saying. My original point though still stands. DOFP was supposed to be that unique film.

[Biggestgeekever]

I still feel that the handling of Cranston's character and the impact it has on the film has more to do with the weak legs, even if "Godzilla is hardly in it!" happens to be the complaint shouted from the rooftops. It's just an easier thing to criticize and make "jokes" about.

[MovieMan89]

I don't think you can say Godzilla's WOM is shitty. It also fits into the pattern of the giant monster genre in general (at least domestically).

Except it doesn't. I may be willing to give you that for the second weekend drop (although that was abnormally large itself), but a third weekend drop over 60%? C'mon Tele, even you can't be that blinded to not know that's just bad WOM. That kinda of thing just doesn't happen otherwise. I mean even most of the Twilight/Fast movies never had 60%+ 3rd weekend drops, and they're the kings of frontloaded.

[Dementeleus]

X-Men, yes, they're always fairly front loaded. 

 

Godzilla? Na... it dropped 67% on a Holiday weekend and its gonna drop 60%+ again this weekend.  I never expected it to make more than 250m, even with that surprising opening, but the fact that it may not even make 200m is telling...

 

It's not telling at all. We get all caught up in the micro, sometimes it's helpful to step back and look at a broader picture.

 

Most of us, a couple of months ago, were pegging GODZILLA in the 160-185 range or so, with a few 200+ predictions, and that was if it was a good movie. It's basically doing exactly what we expected.

 

Ditto for X-MEN. I think most people thought it had a good change at scoring in the X2/X3 range (unadjusted) and that's exactly where it's going to end up. Once again, within the range of expectations we had.

 

We get all caught up in hype or buzz or inflated openings, but at the end of the day we have two successful movies that are doing about what we initially expected. To slam them for that result is just wrong.

[CJohn]

Except it doesn't. I may be willing to give you that for the second weekend drop (although that was abnormally large itself), but a third weekend drop over 60%? C'mon Tele, even you can't be that blinded to not know that's just bad WOM. That kinda of thing just doesn't happen otherwise. I mean even most of the Twilight/Fast movies never had 60%+ 3rd weekend drops, and they're the kings of frontloaded.

Drops are always big after extended weekends.

[reddevil18]

Oh it's making 600M plus Red and when next May looms closer, I'll bet anyone that TA2 outdoes TA at the box office, domestic and WW like it's no big deal.. TA is simply THAT popular and moreso than X-MEN.. Next May, it'll be BKB: The APOCALYPSE..  

Well, of course it's more popular than X-Men. Who would argue otherwise? The first one made 1.5 billion. 

You need to keep some perspective, dude. 

 

Anyway, you can be happy with it doing 2 billion, I'll be more than happy with DOFP's 650 million and its set-up for a very healthy future for the franchise. THAT is what I want from TA2, not record box office. If it can keep up Cap 2's momentum in terms of quality, I'll be pleased no matter what its box office result.

[rockNrollaDIM]

Anyone else missing Spatula's matinee numbers today?

[Dementeleus]

Except it doesn't. I may be willing to give you that for the second weekend drop (although that was abnormally large itself), but a third weekend drop over 60%? C'mon Tele, even you can't be that blinded to not know that's just bad WOM. That kinda of thing just doesn't happen otherwise. I mean even most of the Twilight/Fast movies never had 60%+ 3rd weekend drops, and they're the kings of frontloaded.

 

Believe me, there's nothing I like more than a movie I enjoyed having a long, leggy run. But at the end of the day, a multiplier is kinda pointless. Money is money... it doesn't really matter how quickly or slowly a movie makes it. Yes, a long run indicates a movie has expanded far past its initial audience and found many new and/or curious viewers. But it's reductive to think of that as the be-all and end-all.

[redfirebird2008]

It's not telling at all. We get all caught up in the micro, sometimes it's helpful to step back and look at a broader picture.

 

Most of us, a couple of months ago, were pegging GODZILLA in the 160-185 range or so, with a few 200+ predictions, and that was if it was a good movie. It's basically doing exactly what we expected.

 

Ditto for X-MEN. I think most people thought it had a good change at scoring in the X2/X3 range (unadjusted) and that's exactly where it's going to end up. Once again, within the range of expectations we had.

 

We get all caught up in hype or buzz or inflated openings, but at the end of the day we have two successful movies that are doing about what we initially expected. To slam them for that result is just wrong.

 

Is it? I won't be paying $14 to watch Godzilla's sequel on opening weekend. I'm not alone in that feeling about the first movie. The next one will deal with some fallout from that first movie, namely the misleading marketing campaign that successfully managed to get such a big opening weekend. I don't think WB is happy with the legs at all, in particular what it means for the next movie.

[Claire of Themyscira]

 

[Last Man Standing]

I completely accept what you and Shawn are saying. My original point though still stands. DOFP was supposed to be that unique film.

 

what do you mean by that? that it was supposed to have bigger attendance than x-2/x-3? i've never seen anyone claim that. fact is that it revived a dying franchise, gotten awesome reviews, and increased in a huge way over FC/Wolverine, acting like it's a failure doesn't make any sense.

[AndyLL]

What's going on with this month? 90mil openings and 60% drops galore. 

 

I guess I'm not surprised.  There are been 3 blockbuster movies opening every week which have the same audience.

 

All of them were very good but none of them were great enough to kill one of the other openers which is what needed to happen to not have big drops.

 

My family would have seen each movie twice if there would not have been another movie we really wanted to see the next weekend.

[MovieMan89]

There are really only 3 creature feature films recent enough to compare Godzilla to. Super 8, Pacific Rim, and Cloverfield. The multis for those were 3.6x, 2.75x, and 2x respectively. Godzilla is going to finish with a multi barely above Cloverfield, and most people agreed at the time that had awful WOM. So how then does Godzilla not have bad WOM?

[reddevil18]

I completely accept what you and Shawn are saying. My original point though still stands. DOFP was supposed to be that unique film.

Perhaps, if they had gone with a bigger scale. I dunno if expectations for scale came from fans or from the studio, though. If it came from fans, then the "supposed" doesn't really make sense, as it is very subjective.

 

I still think it is a unique film - there is nothing like it in the comic book movie genre (and that is objective). But maybe its unique concept just wasn't enough, without that bigger scale. More restraint, better character-focused drama is good for some fans and more devoted cinema-goers, but for the GA, the lack of huge spectacle means less interest in repeat viewings. As someone else said, even if the movie is well-liked, without the scope, people may simply skip repeat viewings in cinemas, or giving recommendations such as "it's great, but it's not cinema must-see; you'll enjoy it on bluray as well:"...

[AJG]

I would Gif. battle you but you're a bit too... irrelevant.

I don't battle irrelevant people. Waste of time.

Now sit down.

[Shawn Robbins]

Not to be forgotten in this Godzilla mess is that it lost IMAX this weekend (where it was drawing really well last I checked). Just one factor of many, but an important one still.

[#ED]

The moment Avengers 2 opens less than The First Avengers.

 

[Walt Disney]

Believe me, there's nothing I like more than a movie I enjoyed having a long, leggy run. But at the end of the day, a multiplier is kinda pointless. Money is money... it doesn't really matter how quickly or slowly a movie makes it. Yes, a long run indicates a movie has expanded far past its initial audience and found many new and/or curious viewers. But it's reductive to think of that as the be-all and end-all.

 

I don't think the majority of people disagree with you about front-loaded runs v. leggy runs (see, I did the v. in honor of BvS). I think that people want a bigger box office total and were hoping that the OW wasn't front-loaded, but rather just a high opening for the movie. They get disappointed when the OW turns out to be front-loaded instead of a really high opening.

Edited May 31, 2014 by Walt Disney