Official Weekend Estimates: Maleficent - 70M, X-Men - 32.6M, A Million Ways - 17.1M, Godzilla - 12.2M

[Walt Disney]

like I said, that's a recent thread. see the Cap2 OR DOFP over Spidey for evidence of how little faith people had in these movies.

 

For Cap 2, you don't have to convince me. I completely agree that there were lots of people that had no faith in that one.

[The Panda]

Clark getting his super suit should be the climax of the movie, he becomes superman way to quickly.

[CJohn]

If there is the Skype thing tonight someone send me a PM. 

[baumer]

It might be time for me to make a club for it. How does 22 Jump Street > ASM2 sound? Or should I go all in with 22 Jump Street > All May Films

 

How about Fault in Our Stars over all fanboy movies this summer except Transformers?  

[Biggestgeekever]

How about Fault in Our Stars over all fanboy movies this summer except Transformers?  

I could see it happen! Probably only a 5% chance at the moment, but that's the kind of odds that make the best clubs.

[Deep Wang]

It might be time for me to make a club for it. How does 22 Jump Street > ASM2 sound? Or should I go all in with 22 Jump Street > All May Films

 

Whoa, that's all you.

[MovieMan89]

As I mentioned earlier, what if Fault and Edge of Tomorrow both become two of the biggest summer hits? Would sure slap Hollywood's franchise focus in the face. And my BSG for that matter.

[reddevil18]

As I mentioned earlier, what if Fault and Edge of Tomorrow both become two of the biggest summer hits? Would sure slap Hollywood's franchise focus in the face. And my BSG for that matter.

I don't see it for EoT. Every sign is pointing towards disappointment (and it's looking like that OS as well). 

[The Panda]

And the point where Clark's dad does to save a dog is the big turning point in quality just because the logic makes no sense. It's one of the stupidest deaths of 2013.

[Shawn Robbins]

Maybe Godzilla, but most people were in the ballpark on DOFP's OW.

 

I thought you were pointing out that the goal posts were moving (not just for OW, but in general).

 

At worst, DOFP is meeting expectations (exceeding in some cases), but it's kinda hard to tell that just by reading this board. Shame, really.

Edited May 31, 2014 by ShawnMR

[Chewy]

As I mentioned earlier, what if Fault and Edge of Tomorrow both become two of the biggest summer hits? Would sure slap Hollywood's franchise focus in the face. And my BSG for that matter.

 

Edge of Tomorrow is a comic adaptation, Fault is a popular YA novel

 

So, I don't really see much change there...

[a2k]

And the point where Clark's dad does to save a dog is the big turning point in quality just because the logic makes no sense. It's one of the stupidest deaths of 2013.

 

not to mention having no resources to make way from the hole to the city only to draw art on the bridge.

[blackspider]

Great start for Maleficent. With strong family appeal and early signs of strong WOM, this looks poised to sail north of 200m. I didn't see that happening a couple weeks ago.

 

Man, what a hard hit for X-Men. The franchise is doomed to be frontloaded no matter what kind of WOM it gets. Let's not forget that X2 only managed a 2.5 multiplier way back in '03. Let's hope it can stabilize after the post-Memorial drop.

Edited May 31, 2014 by blackspider

[Dementeleus]

At best it says Godzilla's WOM was mixed. At best.

 

GODZILLA's WOM was mixed. Absolutely. I'm just saying, for the purposes of our predictions and expectations and analysis, WOM (applied across the board) isn't everything.

 

Down the road, it's probably worth it to plan a low-multiplier into predictions for movies in this genre (and certainly for a Godzilla sequel).

[redfirebird2008]

I thought you were pointing out that the goal posts were moving (not just for OW, but in general).

 

At worst, DOFP is meeting expectations (exceeding in some cases), but it's kinda hard to tell that just by reading this board. Shame, really.

 

You have to admit that yesterday's projections, whether low 40's, mid-40's, or high 40's...really got people's hopes up. Now it's headed for low 30's. Very similar situation to IM2, which had a great 128 opening but felt like a big letdown after all the hype and projections early on.

[grim22]

GODZILLA's WOM was mixed. Absolutely. I'm just saying, for the purposes of our predictions and expectations and analysis, WOM (applied across the board) isn't everything.

 

Down the road, it's probably worth it to plan a low-multiplier into predictions for movies in this genre (and certainly for a Godzilla sequel).

 

From HSX

 

It's the 32nd biggest OW of all time and there is only one film that could end up with a lower 3rd weekend total among the top 100 OWs:  The Simpsons

and even The Simpsons was 16M less on OW and 56th on the list!  you actually have to keep going down the list to 109 to find clear cut lower 3rd weekend, but that film (fantastic 4, silver surfer) had 35M less on OW!!!!

[a2k]

Great start for Maleficent. With strong family appeal and early signs of strong WOM, this looks poised to sail north of 200m. I didn't see that happening a couple weeks ago.

 

Man, what a hard hit for X-Men. The franchise is doomed to be frontloaded no matter what kind of WOM it gets. Let's not forget that X2 only managed a 2.5 multiplier way back in '03. Let's hope it can stabilize after the post-Memorial drop.

2.5 gives dofp 227m.

seems to be the max and if it happens, an achievement worth attributing to it's wom, considering it's the 7th movie of a "matured" franchise.

[Shawn Robbins]

GODZILLA's WOM was mixed. Absolutely. I'm just saying, for the purposes of our predictions and expectations and analysis, WOM (applied across the board) isn't everything.

 

Down the road, it's probably worth it to plan a low-multiplier into predictions for movies in this genre (and certainly for a Godzilla sequel).

 

Agreed. I think it's good practice to plan for low multipliers in general (with only occasional exceptions).

 

Predicting total grosses is a far more difficult task than predicting opening weekends.

[Dementeleus]

From HSX

 

It's the 32nd biggest OW of all time and there is only one film that could end up with a lower 3rd weekend total among the top 100 OWs:  The Simpsons

and even The Simpsons was 16M less on OW and 56th on the list!  you actually have to keep going down the list to 109 to find clear cut lower 3rd weekend, but that film (fantastic 4, silver surfer) had 35M less on OW!!!!

 

Yes, but who's arguing against that?

[baumer]

Great start for Maleficent. With strong family appeal and early signs of strong WOM, this looks poised to sail north of 200m. I didn't see that happening a couple weeks ago.

 

Man, what a hard hit for X-Men. The franchise is doomed to be frontloaded no matter what kind of WOM it gets. Let's not forget that X2 only managed a 2.5 multiplier way back in '03. Let's hope it can stabilize after the post-Memorial drop.

 

Early positive WOM?  Really?  I thought the initial reaction to it was quite poor.