Early Wed Numbers: Tammy 6.18 (incl 1.3 previews), Trans4 7.7, DUFE: 2.8 ETE 2.6...pg 21

[baumer]

22JS looks to drop about 10% while Dragon and Traf4 are in the 25% range.  Today's numbers should see a significant spike for holdovers and a slight drop for Tammy and the other Weds openers.  ETE might go up a bit because of the family film factor.  But if you had to base the projections on 2008, you're looking at about a 30-40% bump for most holdovers.    

[filmlover]

A $6M opening day for Tammy is solid but that C+ score spells nothing but doom. Even Identity Thief got a B.

 

Okay for Earth to Echo and Deliver Us From Evil (although man, BOM really overpredicted it in the summer predictions 2+ months ago), I guess. The horror movies this year just aren't really catching on with audiences at all.

[BK007]

I don't care to watch Tammy, but I wish it had made $100m+.

 

What's the point of the 4th then? What a terrible weekend.

 

The other two opened lower than I even imagined. Can't even crack $3m.

[BK007]

A $6M opening day for Tammy is solid but that C+ score spells nothing but doom. Even Identity Thief got a B.

 

Okay for Earth to Echo and Deliver Us From Evil (although man, BOM really overpredicted it in the summer predictions 2+ months ago), I guess. The horror movies this year just aren't really catching on with audiences at all.

 

What I never understood about the high predictions for DUFE was they were obviously using the Conjuring as a comparison, but why? The Conjuring was the highest grossing in the genre for years and had the Insidious director and hype.

 

This had zero hype before summer, and continued to have no hype. Just beguiling.

[Lordmandeep]

Judging from past TF4 should do

 

 

Around 38 million for the weekend and around 175-180 million by Sunday. 

[baumer]

A $6M opening day for Tammy is solid but that C+ score spells nothing but doom. Even Identity Thief got a B.

 

Okay for Earth to Echo and Deliver Us From Evil (although man, BOM really overpredicted it in the summer predictions 2+ months ago), I guess. The horror movies this year just aren't really catching on with audiences at all.

 

Agreed.  The thing about last year is that I remember seeing commercials for Purge and Conjuring months before their release.  This year, I couldn't tell you what's coming out this summer in terms of horror, and this is coming from one of the biggest horror junkies on this board.  I know Purge 2 is coming out sometime, but DUFE never really got the marketing push it needed.  As for ETE, I'm intrigued.  I like the fact that they are basically paying homage to ET, right down to the poster.  

 

[filmscholar]

Does "Earth to Echo" numbers prove that even future generations would rather just pop in the original?:

 

[KATCH-2D2]

Is that 7.7 for TF4 the real number? The official number should be around 7.3, right?

[baumer]

Does "Earth to Echo" numbers prove that even future generations would rather just pop in the original?:

 

 

Was there any significant marketing for it?  And for a family film with no built in audience to open to close to 3 mill on a Weds....it could have a good opening weekend and if the wom is strong, it might have a decent run.

[baumer]

Is that 7.7 for TF4 the real number? The official number should be around 7.3, right?

 

No one knows yet.

[filmlover]

What I never understood about the high predictions for DUFE was they were obviously using the Conjuring as a comparison, but why? The Conjuring was the highest grossing in the genre for years and had the Insidious director and hype.

 

This had zero hype before summer, and continued to have no hype. Just beguiling.

Yeah, I think some (well, BOM only, really) thought this summer just had to have a big horror breakout just because The Conjuring was big last year and that Deliver Us From Evil would be a repeat, when that was an exception, not the rule. This has not been a good year for horror at the box office at all so far, so I'm not sure why they thought this would be different.

[Jandrew]

I actually kinda wish ETE was having more success. Looks like a cute little film for the kids to enjoy over the holiday. So ET came out, what, 1983? That's even 10 years before I was born, and we're talking about kids born in 2003 seeing Echo? I don't care about the ET comparisons, all movies do it. It's not like ETE is any threat to ET at all.

 

As for Tammy, I know CS is pretty much useless, but C+? For a comedy? That's not good. Hmm, looking at Twitter now, it may actually be believable...

[Dementeleus]

Drop, ETE, drop! Go DUFE!

[baumer]

Drop, ETE, drop! Go DUFE!

 

Yes, many of us will be FUBAR if ETE doesn't open lower than DUFE.  

[filmscholar]

Was there any significant marketing for it?  And for a family film with no built in audience to open to close to 3 mill on a Weds....it could have a good opening weekend and if the wom is strong, it might have a decent run.

 

The marketing was good in the beginning cause it was sold as a coming of age alien found footage movie but then at some point in the last 3 months that shifted to "Yes it's a new E.T.".  It's going to do pretty well for it's budget but I understand Disney letting it go.  

[fmpro]

Can Tammy make $100m?

No

[Mulder]

Fun fact: Coca Cola used to contain 9 MGs of Cocaine.

[filmscholar]

Tammy's looking at 75-80 Million Tops. 

[La Binoche]

Any #s for Begin Again's expansion yesterday? 

[baumer]

Any #s for Begin Again's expansion yesterday? 

 

No.