Godzilla Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 (edited) No, that is not best case. A best case has to have a film to juxtapose it to. What film are you using to give it such insane jumps? WOM. It's likely not going to happen. Hence best case scenario. Worst case scenario would 60%+ drop.................... Edited August 7, 2014 by Godzilla likes Tom Cruise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 (edited) If I may, I think there's some truth on both sides here. Among the small-ish audience of MCU fanboys, there was a real rush factor to see this movie (I bought my tickets a week in advance for Thursday night IMAX), and theaters accommodated them with extraordinary preview availability. Resulting in a massive Thursday and a somewhat weaker Friday, relative to what folks might have otherwise expected. However, awareness into the broader market isn't as strong as with CATWS. People probably are close to being as aware of the existence of this movie as they were for CATWS because Marvel is marketing the crap out of it. But since these are some C-grade heroes, the broader audience is less of aware of why they should care about seeing this movie. That's a point that strong WoM is addressing. This would probably be particularly true for the whole family-friendly segment, right? So, my expectation is that this is a film that would have huge previews (not because Fanboys are *more* interested in this than CATWS, just that theaters gave them (us) more opportunities for previews), a modestly lower first weekend and then a slightly better hold as WoM gradually spreads out to the more distant quadrants. That make sense? This is pretty much what I expect. Doom and gloom this weekend followed by lots of comments about GOTG showing legs in the following days and weeks. When all you have to do is throw out the previews from Thu(at least those between 7pm-12am) and the drop will look a lot better. Remember, Iron Man also had Thu night previews, back when studios separated the number from Friday. Its second weekend drop looks a little different when you factor that 3.5m out: The official IM numbers: 1st weekend: 98.6m 2nd weekend: 51.2m(-48.1%) With the Thu previews put back in: 1st weekend: 102.1m 2nd weekend: 51.2m(Basically -50%) And IM was the non-est non-sequel of them all. Take out about 5m from GOTG's numbers(that's being conservative, IMO) and it made 89.3m from Midnight on. 50% drop from that = 44.7m. And since kids were still in school, Iron Man did not burn off as much demand from Mon-Thu and GOTG is. So, 44.7m has to be the ceiling. Edited August 7, 2014 by RaccoonsDineOnAAinHell™ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 (edited) A 44% drop is kind of nuts.I'm hoping for a 50% drop for GOTG, which would be better than TWS' 56.6% drop. Edited August 7, 2014 by Mojoguy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 WOM. It's likely not going to happen. Hence best case scenario. Worst case scenario would 60%+ drop.................... Well, your best case scenario is a pipe dream. Sorry dude, but it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I think a better drop than Cap 2 is likely, but sub-50% isn't gonna happen IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackout Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Best case scenario37.8m31m25.5m94.3m (-0%) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Any drop under TWS is pretty great in my books, and it would pretty much nearly guarantee the film to have the biggest domestic gross of the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 it would pretty much nearly guarantee the film to have the biggest domestic gross of the summer. I think it already is guaranteed to do that. Competition is gonna be quite dire for like a month after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punishment Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 GOTG under 55% drop because: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 But there is another 3D film coming out besides Turtles a Film Nobody is mentioning because Nobody Cares Step Up. Heh. If it wasn't for overseas that franchises would have ended with Revolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 This is pretty much what I expect. Doom and gloom this weekend followed by lots of comments about GOTG showing legs in the following days and weeks. When all you have to do is throw out the previews from Thu(at least those between 7pm-12am) and the drop will look a lot better. Remember, Iron Man also had Thu night previews, back when studios separated the number from Friday. Its second weekend drop looks a little different when you factor that 3.5m out: The official IM numbers: 1st weekend: 98.6m 2nd weekend: 51.2m(-48.1%) With the Thu previews put back in: 1st weekend: 102.1m 2nd weekend: 51.2m(Basically -50%) And IM was the non-est non-sequel of them all. Take out about 5m from GOTG's numbers(that's being conservative, IMO) and it made 89.3m from Midnight on. 50% drop from that = 44.7m. And since kids were still in school, Iron Man did not burn off as much demand from Mon-Thu and GOTG is. So, 44.7m has to be the ceiling. Good post and I agree with your numbers, I still think WOM is kicking in hence great Sun/Mon holds. I wouldn't be shocked with 52% drop this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 BoxOffice @BoxOffice 2m Fandango reports TURTLES is pacing closely to GUARDIANS in early weekend sales. #TeenageMutantNinjaTurtles... http://fb.me/2fqFLOzRl 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperBatman Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Hmm Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I honestly have to say I will not be shocked if there is only a $1M difference between Turtles and Galaxy for the whole weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 BoxOffice @BoxOffice 2m Fandango reports TURTLES is pacing closely to GUARDIANS in early weekend sales. #TeenageMutantNinjaTurtles... http://fb.me/2fqFLOzRl Is that really that good? GOTG has burned off nearly 127M in demand so there shouldn't be any rush for it at all now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wileECoyote Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 BoxOffice @BoxOffice 2m Fandango reports TURTLES is pacing closely to GUARDIANS in early weekend sales. #TeenageMutantNinjaTurtles... http://fb.me/2fqFLOzRl Two fun BO weekends in a row? Finally, it's been a while. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Two fun BO weekends in a row? Finally, it's been a while. This August always looked stronger than usual, but with Guardians seriously overperforming it's going to be fun (at least until next week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I think Guardians/Turtles are gonna power this August to strong numbers alone and make up for the sluggish market otherwise in the same way Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Help saved August 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Disney Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Diary of a Wimpy Kid and Ice Age CD and TDKR all had jumps in the 55-65% range. I think those films are much more comparable to GOTG than Apes is. Diary of a wimpy Kid and Ice Age?? Neither of those movies could have possibly included adult males into their target audience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aplandg Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 This August always looked stronger than usual, but with Guardians seriously overperforming it's going to be fun (at least until next week).Yeah, with The Expendables leak and the less than stellar reviews I'm not expecting much from it. I think otherwise it could've flirted with $30m OW which would have been decent. I'm still hopping for one more surprise hit this August. Guardians is huge and it's fairly safe to assume TMNT will cross $100m (I personally predict $140 DOM). I can see Let's be Cops surprising (maybe $100m???) and I think the Wednesday release will help especially if WOM is good. The Giver will probably be lucky to hit $50m but you never know... The final two weekends of Summer are pretty standard with Sin City being the only movie I think could possibly cross $20m OW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
