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Alpha

Early Thurs. Numbers (Rth) TMNT/GOTG 4.2m, LBC 3.1m

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Ninja Turtles might do better weekend #s than expected...

 

Just throwing this out there, but if last weekend was for fans, and their kids, this weekend could be for the casual audience, which would be largely comprised of young kids. Parents would most likely take their kids on a weekend rather than a weekday due to, well, it being the weekend.

 

Just a thought...

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So last week had tougher competition, this thursday has two weaker openers

 

Last week had 3 new films opening on thursday night which means (with turtles being in 3d and all) that at least 4 screens if not more were being taken by new films on thursday evening. Same this week except that LBC has already opened so its going to have the normal Wednesday-Thursday fall like the rest combined with the fact that its still less show times for the films in play than they had on Friday-Tuesday.

 

While thursday previews might help the studios on one end, it hurts their films already in play on the other.

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Roughly

 

-14.6% for GOTG

-19.7% for Turtles

 

those seem like what has become the "new" normal drops for 1/2nd week releases this year.

 

last week drops ranged from -11 to -31% in the top 10 so yeah, I think anymore when you have more than 1 film opening for early previews you can guaranty that a hold under -10% is gone.

 

Honestly the difference here is that the early showtimes actually cut the availability for the current films to play. Traditional midnights didn't have that kind of an effect (they may have influenced who actually went to the theater and when but they didn't effect what was playing by taking it away.) And its not as "fair" to the current films now, but whatever - the new system is here to stay.

Edited by narniadis
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Turtles won't even drop 60% this weekend. Jumps will be bigger on Friday and Saturday.

 

I just don't see it B. This weekend last year the biggest increase was 80% by WTM which was WAY out of the range of the rest.

 

It would have to jump 80+% from RtH's 4.1 to have that as an option. Now before you come back and argue, I'm just reminding you that I am playing your card from last week and Guardians - historically speaking there isn't a precedent for Turtles to follow the outlier instead of the norm.

 

I will gladly admit that I am wrong if it increases 80% but I just can't see it (same goes for Guardians and the 25m expectations).

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Turtles won't even drop 60% this weekend. Jumps will be bigger on Friday and Saturday.

It'd need around an 80% increase Thursday-Friday to achieve that.And if Guardians could only increase 62% Thursday-Friday, TMNT definitely won't do that.:rolleyes: Edited by Alpha
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Turtles won't even drop 60% this weekend. Jumps will be bigger on Friday and Saturday.

 

Baumer, your statements on Turtles and GOTG's runs have been continually wrong, it's dropping 60%+ with that Thursday.

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