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Weekend Prediction thread 5/31-6/2 Play the Derby

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rest of august and mid September

 

8/13-8/15

Straight Outta Compton-45m

The Man from uncle-19m

 

 

8/21-8/23

Sinister 2-16m

Hitman: Agent 47-7m

American Ultra 4m

 

8/28-8/30

We Are Your Friends-8m

No Escape-6m

 

9/4-9/6

The Transporter Refueled-11m

A Walk in the Woods-1m

 

9/11-9/13

Perfect Guy-15m

The Visit-14.2m

Edited by babz06
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I'm interested in seeing how my Summer 2015 box office word cloud will look after this upcoming weekend! I've continued updating weekly (using Monday estimates). I'm not expecting any significant changes now that the major tentpoles have opened.

Check it out if you'd like:

www.numberclouds.weebly.com

Please note that I receive no financial gain from this website. It's purely a hobby that I thought others may enjoy.

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  1. Straight Outta Compton - 53.1M
  2. The Man From U.N.C.L.E. - 31.1M
  3. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - 16.0M
  4. Fantastic Four - 9.2M
  5. The Gift - 8.3M
  6. Vacation - 6.4M
  7. Minions - 5.6M
  8. Ant-Man - 5.3M
  9. Trainwreck - 4.9M
  10. Ricki and the Flash - 4.1M
  11. Southpaw - 3.2M
  12. Pixels - 3.1M
Edited by Blankments
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Not quite as exciting a weekend as last time, but the official predicts for Compton are seriously all over the place (as were ours) so this should be interesting. Our UNCLE predicts were significantly more confident than our Compton picks, even without accounting for Compton being predicted to come in much higher, which is kind of amazing. Typically, variance on picks declines pretty sharply as expected OW BO goes up. Amusingly, our Compton picks, on average, came in within $100k of our F4 pick, albeit with a much wider spread. I went through the various predicts (Compton 23, UNCLE 22) and here's what we ended up with:

 

Straight Out of Compton Predictions

Mean: 43.4M

Median: 44.0M

StnDev: 12.42M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 28.6%

High: 65M

Low: 24M

 

The Man from UNCLE Predictions

Mean: 22.0M

Median: 21.4M

StnDev: 4.67M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 21.81%

High: 32.0M

Low 14.0M

 

As usual, I picked a few other predictions to compare against.  Let me know if you've got ones you'd like me to add. 

 

BO.com

Compton 55M

UNCLE 14M

 

Screen Rant

Compton 43M

UNCLE 16M

 

Deadline

Compton 45M

UNCLE 17.5M

 

Variety

Compton 41M

UNCLE 17.5M

Edited by Wrath
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Paper Towns, Mr. Holmes, Inside Out, Jurassic World, The Gallows, Terminator Genisys, Magic Mike XXL, and Ted 2 are gone. Drive-in is Fantastic Four and Ant-Man.

Irrational Man and Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F are gone. Drive-in is Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Fantastic Four.

 

Fantastic Four - 28 (down 4)
Straight Outta Compton - 23 (debut)
The Man From U.N.C.L.E. - 11/5/5 (2D/2D with D-BOX/IMAX) total 21 (debut)
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - 18 (down 11)
Vacation - 18 (down 2)
Ant-Man - 14/2 (2D/3D) total 16
The Gift - 16 (no change)
Pixels - 11/5 (2D/3D) total 16 (up 2)
Ricki and the Flash - 16 (no change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie - 13 (down 4)
Minions - 12 (down 3)
Trainwreck - 12 (down 3)
Southpaw - 7 (down 1)
Edited by Blankments
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American Ultra  -  6M

Hitman: Agent 47  -  13M

Sinister 2  -  15M

________________________________________

 

Straight Outta Compton  -56%

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation  -35%

The Man From U.N.C.L.E.  -53%

Fantastic Four  -67%

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  1. Straight Outta Compton - $22.5m
  2. Sinister 2 - $13.7m
  3. American Ultra - $11.6m
  4. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol - $10.8m
  5. Hitman: Agent 47 - $7.6m
  6. The Man From U.N.C.L.E - $7.1m
  7. The Gift - $4m
  8. Ant-Man - $3.6m
  9. Minions - $3.3m
  10. Fantastic Four - $3.1m
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8/21-8/23

  1. Straight Outta Compton: $26 million ($103 million)
  2. Sinister 2: $15 million 
  3. Mission Impossible 5: $12 million ($156 million) 
  4. American Ultra: $9.5 million 
  5. Hitman - Agent 47: $7 million 
  6. The Man From UNCLE: $6.5 million ($23 million) 
  7. Ant-Man: $4 million ($163 million) 
  8. Minions: $3.5 million ($317 million) 
  9. Vacation: $3.5 million ($51 million) 
  10. Ricki and the Flash: $3 million ($19 million) 

 

8/28-8/30

  1. Straight Outta Compton: $17.5 million ($130 million) 
  2. We Are Your Friends: $16 million 
  3. War Room: $10.5 million 
  4. Mission Impossible 5: $9.5 million ($170 million) 
  5. Sinister 2: $6 million ($24 million)
  6. American Ultra: $5 million ($17 million) 
  7. No Escape: $4 million ($6 million) 
  8. The Man From UNCLE: $3.5 million ($28 million) 
  9. Hitman - Agent 47: $3 million ($11 million) 
  10. Ant-Man: $3 million ($167 million) 

9/4-9/7

  1. Straight Outta Compton: $12 million/$14.5 million ($151 million) 
  2. We Are Your Friends: $11 million/$13 million ($34 million) 
  3. War Room: $10 million/$12 million ($27 million) 
  4. Mission Impossible 5: $8.5 million/$10 million ($184 million) 
  5. The Transporter Refueled: $5 million/$6 million 
  6. A Walk in the Woods: $4 million/$4.75 million ($7 million) 
  7. Sinister 2: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($30 million) 
  8. American Ultra: $3 million/$3.5 million ($22 million) 
  9. No Escape: $2.5 million/$3 million ($10 million) 
  10. The Man From UNCLE: $2.5 million/$3 million ($32 million) 
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http://www.top10films.co.uk/archives/29921#comment-1848477

If anyone has a few minutes check out a new article I wrote for the website I write for periodically. I'm actually kind of proud of this article it's kind of an interesting concept.

Lovely article, Dan! (Baumer)

I liked your picks, especially #5, #7 and #10

Keep it up!

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