Baywatch | May 26 2017 | Dwayne Johnson, Zac Efron, Alexandra Daddario, Priyanka Chopra | First Trailer on Page 13

[Jay Beezy]

20 minutes ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

Then I'll probably see it on opening weekend. I'm not saying it won't. It's probably going to make some money because Dwayne Johnson is one of the lead characters.

 

But considering how much money Stranger Tides made---even though it was a stinking turd---I wouldn't be surprised if it made more than $1 billion just as easily as that film.

 

And once again, someone forgets how much Stranger Tides made domestically.

Edited February 26, 2017 by Jay Beezy

[Mikasa Ackerman]

21 minutes ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

Paramount has been making questionable decisions lately, so they either don't know what they are doing or they have already thrown Baywatch to the sharks Kraken.

 

FTFY

[NoobSaibot]

13 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

 

And once again, someone forgets how much Stranger Tides made domestically.

 

A little more than $240 million. I'm aware.

 

But it's still going to suck the air out of the box office. June also has a bit of competition, so again, Baywatch feels very out of place. Moving it just because Alien: Covenant landed on its initial release date was a boneheaded move. It would have stood a better chance there.

[Jay Beezy]

5 minutes ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

A little more than $240 million. I'm aware.

 

But it's still going to suck the air out of the box office. June also has a bit of competition, so again, Baywatch feels very out of place. Moving it just because Alien: Covenant landed on its initial release date was a boneheaded move. It would have stood a better chance there.

 

Not if GOTG2 sucks the air out first. Pirates is not the marquee franchise domestic audiences look forward to anymore.

Edited February 26, 2017 by Jay Beezy

[NoobSaibot]

8 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

 

Not if GOTG2 sucks the air out first. Pirates is not the marquee franchise domestic audiences look forward to anymore.

 

Hopefully it does knock the wind out of its sails. I'd like to see that happen, if only because Disney's been on a roll for so long.

 

I know that sounds spiteful, but really....I haven't liked a Pirates movie since Dead Man's Chest.

 

Added note: I keep making puns unintentionally. I don't know why. Sorry.

Edited February 26, 2017 by NoobSaibot

[WrathOfHan]

*ahem*

 

 

[Jay Beezy]

Just now, NoobSaibot said:

 

Hopefully it does knock the sails out of Pirates. I'd like to see that happen, if only because Disney's been on a roll for so long.

 

I know that sounds spiteful, but really....I haven't liked a Pirates movie since Dead Man's Chest.

 

I'm certain the buzz is substantial enough on GOTG2 to do that.

 

My ultimate point here is that I have a hard time buying another potentially mediocre entry in the Pirates franchise sucking the air out of the domestic box office considering how the fourth one was responded to domestically, not to mention Depp fatigue. So if they've gotten enough of their blockbuster fix from GOTG2, that can take away a good amount from Pirates which gives leeway to Baywatch which is an R-rated comedy.

[filmlover]

I'm really getting tired of seeing the trailer for this before every single movie.

[Krissykins]

Baywatch comes out the same day as Wonder Woman here in the UK.

 

So I won't be going opening weekend anymore 

[George Parr]

12 hours ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

Then I'll probably see it on opening weekend. I'm not saying it won't. It's probably going to make some money because Dwayne Johnson is one of the lead characters.

 

But considering how much money Stranger Tides made---even though it was a stinking turd---I wouldn't be surprised if it made more than $1 billion just as easily as that film.

 

I'd say it is rather unlikely that Pirates makes it to 1 billion. While POTC 4 didn't quite have the outrageous exchange-rates POTC 3 had, they were still significantly above what we currently have. The movie would need to increase quite a bit over the last one to make up for that.

 

I'd also say that is very unlikely to suck the air out of the box office, because it simply isn't big enough for that anymore. the last one opened to a 90m weekend, good but way behind what 2 and 3 made. On top of that, this is Memorial Weekend, one of the biggest weekends of the year. There is more than enough room for two movies.

2011 had two starts at 86m and 47m, plus a holdover with 39m (POTC 4), 2013 had three starts at 97m, 41m and 33m, plus a holdover at 37m. The years afterwards didn't quite match that, but mostly because they had few good holdovers or good starts, not because one movie was making all the money. If Baywatch fails, it will be because people didn't find it interesting, not because it was overshadowed by something else.

[Mikasa Ackerman]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Baywatch comes out the same day as Wonder Woman here in the UK.

 

So I won't be going opening weekend anymore 

 

Yeah but compared to Gal Gadot, Alexandra Daddario has much better... eyes.

[franfar]

14 minutes ago, Mikasa Ackerman said:

 

Yeah but compared to Gal Gadot, Alexandra Daddario has much better... eyes.

Better plot structure

[Arlborn]

26 minutes ago, Mikasa Ackerman said:

 

Yeah but compared to Gal Gadot, Alexandra Daddario has much better... eyes.

I actually think Gal has lovely eyes that show a very strong personality underneath them. I do see why you think Daddario's eyes are better though cause they are indeed gorgeous.

12 minutes ago, franfar said:

Better plot structure

What, Baywatch?

[Jay Beezy]

2 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

What, Baywatch?

 

Daddario. 

[franfar]

11 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

I actually think Gal has lovely eyes that show a very strong personality underneath them. I do see why you think Daddario's eyes are better though cause they are indeed gorgeous.

What, Baywatch?

Daddario has better "plot structure" than Gadot

[Jay Beezy]

3 hours ago, George Parr said:

 

I'd say it is rather unlikely that Pirates makes it to 1 billion. While POTC 4 didn't quite have the outrageous exchange-rates POTC 3 had, they were still significantly above what we currently have. The movie would need to increase quite a bit over the last one to make up for that.

 

I'd also say that is very unlikely to suck the air out of the box office, because it simply isn't big enough for that anymore. the last one opened to a 90m weekend, good but way behind what 2 and 3 made. On top of that, this is Memorial Weekend, one of the biggest weekends of the year. There is more than enough room for two movies.

2011 had two starts at 86m and 47m, plus a holdover with 39m (POTC 4), 2013 had three starts at 97m, 41m and 33m, plus a holdover at 37m. The years afterwards didn't quite match that, but mostly because they had few good holdovers or good starts, not because one movie was making all the money. If Baywatch fails, it will be because people didn't find it interesting, not because it was overshadowed by something else.

 

Precisely.

 

And regarding online buzz, this applies to every film that has online buzz. There are a few caveats to considering when it comes to aggregators of social media mentions and trailer views:

 

1. The number of mentions or views doesn't account for those who mention/view more than once.

2. They can't determine whether these accounts are actually separate individuals or if one person owns multiple accounts (people can operate their own accounts *and* fan accounts).

3. They don't distinguish between those who speak positively or negatively.

4. They don't distinguish between domestic and international users.

 

The fourth point is most important for the Pirates franchise because the last one made 240M domestically on a 250M budget. Under that circumstance alone, it wouldn't have gotten a sequel.

 

The only reason we like to cling to social media buzz because it's the easiest way to aggregate a large number of quantifiable data points, while we ignore potentially more accurate data based on something like NRG surveys of general moviegoers because they're only based on small sample sizes that may or may not be easily extrapolated across an entire population.

 

And just because there may be a bit of a bounceback in quality doesn't guarantee a higher box office gross. Men In Black 2 had a 39% RT and a 190M domestic gross while Men In Black 3 had a 68% RT and a 179M domestic gross.

 

When it comes to this upcoming Memorial Day weekend, probably the best starting point is the 2013 weekend where we had a PG-13 action blockbuster and an R-rated comedy opening.

Edited February 26, 2017 by Jay Beezy

[Jay Beezy]

Rated R for language throughout, crude sexual content, and graphic nudity.

 

http://www.filmratings.com/downloads/cara_rating_bulletin.pdf

 

Strange this gets a rating right now considering Paramount movies usually get their ratings 2-3 weeks before release.

Edited March 14, 2017 by Jay Beezy

[Hiccup23]

I am seeing this. Zac Efron is hot and he will be shirtless in this. I'm in.

 

I am seeing 20M opening weekend to a 70-80M finish. 

[antovolk]

 

[franfar]

Hopefully it's not as shiity