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CJohn

Weekend Estimates: Gone Girl - 26.8M | Dracula Untold - 23.5M | Alexander - 19.1M | Annabelle - 16.4M | The Judge - 13.3M

By CJohn, in Numbers and Data

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Ando918 Sleeper Hit

Ando918

Posted
Posted

Dracula Untold - demo is teens and young adults

 

No Good Deed - young urban audiences

 

Neither of those demographics care about reviews for a film. They go based on whether they like the marketing or not. They also go primarily to hang out with friends, so the film's quality doesn't mean much. 

 

The Judge - demo is older adults

 

Older adults actually do some homework before they go to a movie. They want to know the product they're paying $12 to see is actually worth the cost. 

 

Gone Girl also held up nicely so that has quite an impact as well. The Equalizer is also adult competition. 

 

Put RDJ in an action film or a well-made comedy/Oscar contender. I think he could sell it. Just a lot of competition right now. I'm pretty sure even a big star like Denzel wouldn't get The Judge past $20 million. It just looks bleh

I agree about the demographic groups, but you are being too easy on RDJ.  He shouldn't get his butt kicked and thrashed by a cheap horror movie in its 2nd weekend of release.  Or by a kid's movie without any buzz.  If the officials come in Monday and put his number at 12.99 million then maybe you will rethink how easy you are being on him.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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I agree about the demographic groups, but you are being too easy on RDJ.  He shouldn't get his butt kicked and thrashed by a cheap horror movie in its 2nd weekend of release.  Or by a kid's movie without any buzz.  If the officials come in Monday and put his number at 12.99 million then maybe you will rethink how easy you are being on him.

RDJ being hot off an enormous comeback in 2008 did nothing for The Soloist the following year. Just give it up.

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babz06 Box Office Gold

babz06

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Addicted is doing so much better than I thought it would. I think I might have actually had it on my "lowest grossing if the season" in the winter games...

i dont know why people continue to underestimate these movies. Do a little research before making predictions, you would find out that  Addicted is based on a very popular book. The fan-base was always going to come out in droves to support in opening weekend. Probably wont crack 20 million but it had a nothing budget, so no sweat for the studio.

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kitik Global Phenomenon

kitik

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Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic) Fri, Oct. 10 - Sun, Oct. 12

Wide (1000+)

 

 
# Title weekend   Locations   Avg. Total Wks. Dist.
1 Gone Girl $26,800,000 -29% 3,284 270 $8,161 $78,281,190 2 Fox
2 Dracula Untold $23,457,000 -- 2,887 -- $8,125 $23,457,000 1 Universal
3 Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day $19,100,000 -- 3,088 -- $6,185 $19,100,000 1 Disney
4 Annabelle $16,365,000 -56% 3,215 30 $5,090 $62,155,572 2 Warner Bros. / New Line
5 The Judge $13,330,000 -- 3,003 -- $4,439 $13,330,000 1 Warner Bros.
6 The Equalizer $9,725,000 -48% 3,117 -119 $3,120 $79,885,373 3 Sony / Columbia
7 The Maze Runner $7,500,000 -36% 3,072 -533 $2,441 $83,839,821 4 Fox
8 The Boxtrolls $6,676,000 -44% 3,270 -194 $2,042 $41,032,412 3 Focus
9 Left Behind (2014) $2,909,000 -54% 1,887 62 $1,542 $10,919,872 2 Freestyle Releasing
10 Guardians of the Galaxy $1,807,000 -40% 1,291 -603 $1,400 $326,076,904 11 Disney
11 This Is Where I Leave You $1,645,000 -59% 1,511 -1224 $1,089 $32,115,880 4 Warner Bros.
12 Dolphin Tale 2 $1,320,000 -61% 1,505 -1285 $877 $39,945,389 5 Warner Bros.

Limited (100 — 999)

 

 
# Title weekend   Locations   Avg. Total Wks. Dist.
1 Addicted $7,600,000 -- 846 -- $8,983 $7,600,000 1 Lionsgate / Codeblack Films
2 No Good Deed (2014) $990,000 -60% 801 -779 $1,236 $51,766,483 5 Sony / Screen Gems
3 Kill the Messenger $939,000 -- 374 -- $2,511 $939,000 1 Focus
4 The Good Lie $550,000 -35% 461 0 $1,193 $1,702,723 2 Warner Bros.
5 The Skeleton Twins $430,550 -40% 268 -193 $1,607 $4,234,611 5 Roadside Attractions
6 A Walk Among the Tombstones $388,000 -81% 558 -1668 $695 $25,702,135 4 Universal
7 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) $365,000 -53% 429 -405 $851 $188,924,771 10 Paramount
8 Let's Be Cops $310,000 -58% 319 -462 $972 $81,461,827 9 Fox
9 How to Train Your Dragon 2 $177,000 2% 204 -23 $868 $176,321,220 18 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
10 The Giver $108,000 -55% 202 -169 $535 $44,439,850 9 Weinstein Company
11 The Drop $73,000 -73% 103 -326 $709 $10,603,820 5 Fox Searchlight
12 Hercules (2014) $70,000 -32% 124 -42 $565 $72,658,027 12 Paramount

Platform (1 — 99)

 

 
# Title weekend   Locations   Avg. Total Wks. Dist.
1 Pride (2014) $230,000 127% 97 74 $2,371 $481,649 3 CBS Films
2 Breakup Buddies $195,000 -- 24 -- $8,125 $535,000 2 China Lion Film
3 Whiplash $143,503 -- 6 -- $23,917 $143,503 1 Sony Pictures Classics
4 St. Vincent $121,054 -- 4 -- $30,264 $121,054 1 Weinstein Company

 

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babz06 Box Office Gold

babz06

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I thought mediocre reviews didn't hurt movies on opening weekend.  Dracula's reviews are worse than The Judge.  No Good Geed's reviews are way worse than The Judge.  More of the blame should go to RDJ's lack of starpower than to a 48% on RT.  Those reviews would affect its legs starting in the 2nd weekend, but a big star would have been able to get this to 18-19 million OW.

There is a simple explanation for this: The Judge soft opening had more to do with Gone Girl breaking out. Adults wanted to see that film more. I dont think it matters who the star was. 

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kitik Global Phenomenon

kitik

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Is china it's last market? Because if it is, 700M WW is obviously assured, but 750... not so much.

 

 

While you're right that 750 isn't a stone cold lock, it seems fairly likely at this point.

 

50M from China

+5M from US

+8M from Italy (and Japan, Germany, and other places it's still playing)

 

And that's 750 right there. Not terribly difficult. 50 more in China is obviously the big question mark. But frankly I think my 5 and 8 numbers are probably underestimated, so it probably doesn't even need the full 50 from China.

 

If it can get good legs in China, and add another 55-60, then 760-770 might be on the table.

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Ando918 Sleeper Hit

Ando918

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There is a simple explanation for this: The Judge soft opening had more to do with Gone Girl breaking out. Adults wanted to see that film more. I dont think it matters who the star was. 

Agreed that most of the blame goes to Gone Girl's legs.....but even with that, if RDJ really had a huge fan base himself this would have had an OW of 18 million.  They would have showed up.  But people didn't show up for him.  Legs aren't going to be good with Brad Pitt coming next weekend.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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Agreed that most of the blame goes to Gone Girl's legs.....but even with that, if RDJ really had a huge fan base himself this would have had an OW of 18 million.  They would have showed up.  But people didn't show up for him.  Legs aren't going to be good with Brad Pitt coming next weekend.

So because his last few movies have been blockbusters, that means all of his films must be big hits? Movies are not an obligation, Ando.

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