Official Weekend Est: MJ1 56.9M Penguins 25.8m BH6 18.77m Interstellar 15.8M

[The Futurist]

Katzenberg s days are numbered ...

[Jonwo]

Katzenberg s days are numbered ...

 

Katzenberg won't go without a fight but I think DWA's days as an independent studio may be numbered unless they come up with a hit. 

[MovieMan89]

Katzenberg won't go without a fight but I think DWA's days as an independent studio may be numbered unless they come up with a hit. 

I just noticed B.O.O. was removed from next summer's schedule. I wonder if they're trying to put a lot of work into that and make it their first breakout success in ages? The likes of Home, KFP3, Boss Baby, and Captain Underpants all seem like lost causes at this point. At best those movies will be saved by OS, at worst....

Edited November 29, 2014 by MovieMan89

[Deep Wang]

Count Legula.

 

Colegula

[Gopher]

I'm actually impressed that Mockingjay will have the same % drop as Catching Fire over its second weekend. I expected WOM to be less enthusiastic, but as of now the reduced audience seems pretty consistent. 300 should fall, Guardians probably won't. 

 

Penguins is a bigger disappointment than Rise of the Guardians two years ago. Established brand and hit TV show failed twice for DWA this year. Unfortunately Christmas won't be kind to Penguins with the competition coming up. Wouldn't be surprised if it barely scrapes 100, or less than half of what Big Hero 6 (which has been another nice success for Disney) will finish with. DWA is at the point where their entire brand just isn't selling anymore. I've never seen anything like it. 

 

Interstellar's holds aren't surprising. In IMAX it's playing stronger than Skyfall or Catching Fire or probably the Hobbits at this point. Legs should be pretty strong until it loses its screens. 

 

Nobody asked for a Horrible Bosses 2 and there's no successful precedent for an R-rated comedy sequel released over Thanksgiving. Yet it still killed Dumb and Dumber. 

 

What a lame Thanksgiving. Just get to 2015 already. 

[Deep Wang]

Penguins is a bigger disappointment than Rise of the Guardians two years ago. Established brand and hit TV show failed twice for DWA this year. Unfortunately Christmas won't be kind to Penguins with the competition coming up. Wouldn't be surprised if it barely scrapes 100, or less than half of what Big Hero 6 (which has been another nice success for Disney) will finish with. DWA is at the point where their entire brand just isn't selling anymore. I've never seen anything like it. 

 

Couldn't that be the problem?  I mean if I could watch the penguins on TV whenever, what makes it worthwhile to go spend money to see them at the theater?  At least Dragon has a certain appeal seeing it on a big screen with the flying and the 3D and whatnot.  

[MovieMan89]

I'm wondering if animation in general is in for a massive crash within the next few years. You got all the big studios wanting to crank out between 2-4 films a year, and a lot of sequel craziness going on. Toy Story 4, Incredibles 2, Finding Dory, Cars 3, Kung Fu Panda 3, How to Train Your Dragon 3, The Croods 2, Madagascar 4, Puss in Boots 2, Ice Age 5, and a bazillion LEGO movies are all planned for like the next 4 years. Particularly 2017-2018. These movies aren't cheap. Even if together they combine for a shit ton of money, individually they might nearly all end up being underperformers or bombs. Thank god WDA still resist sequels. Though with 4 big hits in a row for them, I fear as soon as they start falling on rougher times again they'll be eager to put sequels to their modern renaissance movies into production.

Edited November 29, 2014 by MovieMan89

[Jonwo]

 

Penguins is a bigger disappointment than Rise of the Guardians two years ago. Established brand and hit TV show failed twice for DWA this year. Unfortunately Christmas won't be kind to Penguins with the competition coming up. Wouldn't be surprised if it barely scrapes 100, or less than half of what Big Hero 6 (which has been another nice success for Disney) will finish with. DWA is at the point where their entire brand just isn't selling anymore. I've never seen anything like it. . 

 

DWA has fallen from grace in just two years which is surprising considering that only 10 years ago they were riding high with Shrek 2 and Shark Tale. The competition has really hurt them more than WDAS and Pixar. 

 

 

I'm wondering if animation in general is in for a massive crash within the next few years. You got all the big studios wanting to crank out between 2-4 films a year, and a lot of sequel craziness going on. Toy Story 4, Incredibles 2, Finding Dory, Cars 3, Kung Fu Panda 3, How to Train Your Dragon 3, The Croods 2, Madagascar 4, Puss in Boots 2, Ice Age 5, and a bazillion LEGO movies are all planned for like the next 4 years. Particularly 2017-2018. These movies aren't cheap. Even if together they combine for a shit ton of money, individually they might nearly all end up being underperformers or bombs.

 

I think WDAS, Pixar, Illumination, Blue Sky and Warner Bros will survive but I think DWA, Paramount and Sony will suffer, I had a feeling a crash was coming when DWA started releasing 2-3 films a year and other studios wanted a piece of the pie and the market cannot sustain it. 

[MovieMan89]

DWA has fallen from grace in just two years which is surprising considering that only 10 years ago they were riding high with Shrek 2 and Shark Tale. The competition has really hurt them more than WDAS and Pixar. 

 

 

 

I think WDAS, Pixar, Illumination, Blue Sky and Warner Bros will survive but I think DWA, Paramount and Sony will suffer, I had a feeling a crash was coming when DWA started releasing 2-3 films a year and other studios wanted a piece of the pie and the market cannot sustain it. 

DWA is releasing a slew of unappealing sounding original movies followed by a slew of sequels to dying/dead franchises. That's gotta be a recipe for disaster.

[Quigley]

Then they're idiots. Shrek is a way bigger franchise, and Puss in Boots is a more known and popular character than the Penguins. There's no equation that adds up to Penguins being more successful, unless it had killer WOM or something.

 

I agree with your point but we're talking about a possible total around $80M. They definitely wanted it to cross $100M.

[Gopher]

I think Big Hero 6 shows that animation is doing just fine if you sell it well and you give the audience something familiar yet still unique. Nothing in Penguins looked different than the TV show, which, yeah, that probably hurt them. But it's amazing that nothing has opened for DWA since The Croods. Four disappointments in a row. Their low range has dropped from 150m (Puss in Boots, Megamind) to 100m, if that. 

 

I like that the smaller studios are still getting attention though. 50m apiece for Boxtrolls and Book of Life means Laika and ReelFX get to keep making movies, which is what we need to fill the slate. 

[CJohn]

I think these TV shows are hurting DWA's movies. 

[Deep Wang]

I think Big Hero 6 shows that animation is doing just fine if you sell it well and you give the audience something familiar yet still unique. Nothing in Penguins looked different than the TV show, which, yeah, that probably hurt them. But it's amazing that nothing has opened for DWA since The Croods. Four disappointments in a row. Their low range has dropped from 150m (Puss in Boots, Megamind) to 100m, if that. 

 

I like that the smaller studios are still getting attention though. 50m apiece for Boxtrolls and Book of Life means Laika and ReelFX get to keep making movies, which is what we need to fill the slate. 

 

I'm really curious how Pixar will fair next year.  They had a year off and there are two movies!

 

Will they keep their same momentum and both hit about 60/240(which seems to be about the average I just eyballed)?  Will the year off have taken a hit to their name?  

[Jonwo]

I'm really curious how Pixar will fair next year.  They had a year off and there are two movies!

 

Will they keep their same momentum and both hit about 60/240(which seems to be about the average I just eyballed)?  Will the year off have taken a hit to their name?  

 

I think Pixar will be fine, actually this year Universal and Sony didn't release an animated film but it won't affect them either.

 

I think Big Hero 6 shows that animation is doing just fine if you sell it well and you give the audience something familiar yet still unique. Nothing in Penguins looked different than the TV show, which, yeah, that probably hurt them. But it's amazing that nothing has opened for DWA since The Croods. Four disappointments in a row. Their low range has dropped from 150m (Puss in Boots, Megamind) to 100m, if that. 

 

I like that the smaller studios are still getting attention though. 50m apiece for Boxtrolls and Book of Life means Laika and ReelFX get to keep making movies, which is what we need to fill the slate. 

 

Illumination, WB and smaller studios like Laika films cost less than DWA, Pixar and WDAS and that allows room for creative risks and if a film is successful more profits. The Lego Movie cost $66m and looked great although both Illumination and WB use studios that aren't based in the US while Laika, Reel FX and Blue Sky get tax breaks which greatly reduces the cost

[The Futurist]

Agreed, 2015 is gonna be a pivotal year for Pixar.

Two original movies will definitely test the brand.

[Frozen]

When do we get the actuals?

[water]

When do we get the actuals?

 

considering wednesday and thursday are still estimates i'm thinking not until monday

[MovieMan89]

I would say The Croods 2 might be the most appealing thing DWA has on their future slate, except that their sequels in general seem to be cursed domestically no matter how good of a position they're in. Shrek 2 and Madagascar 3 are the only exceptions. And even the latter was still an admissions decrease given 3D/inflation. Shrek 2 remains their only true sequel victory DOM.  You would think they would be way less sequel crazy than they are with that track record. Although I guess they must just be after those huge OS returns.

Edited November 29, 2014 by MovieMan89

[Noctis]

HTTYD2's run is still perplexing. 

[Fancyarcher]

I would say The Croods 2 might be the most appealing thing DWA has on their future slate, except that their sequels in general seem to be cursed domestically no matter how good of a position they're in. Shrek 2 and Madagascar 3 are the only exceptions. You would think they would be way less sequel crazy than they are with that track record. Although I guess they must just be after those huge OS returns.

 

At this point is Dreamworks is desperate to have another hit.

 

The amount of sequels that Katzenberg greenlit recently is a very telling sign.