How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS

[langer]

This is one of the main reasons why Blu Ray and DVD sales are down.  Nice to see that Deadpool is still doing strong on HV though. 

[Wonder Midget]

I still buy all of the good new releases on Blu-ray, and older films that are only available on DVD. I do streaming for convenience, but I'm a collector at heart, and I dreamed of having a film library since I was a little kid messing around with Super8.

[KingoftheWorld]

26 minutes ago, langer said:

This is one of the main reasons why Blu Ray and DVD sales are down.  Nice to see that Deadpool is still doing strong on HV though. 

 

I wish you were right, but I am quite sure that the real reason is piracy.

[langer]

3 minutes ago, KingoftheWorld said:

 

I wish you were right, but I am quite sure that the real reason is piracy.

 

I said one of the main reasons.  Of course piracy is also one of the main reasons (and is probably the biggest factor). 

[johnboy3434]

Really? All the independent studies I've read have said that piracy has had a very limited effect on Hollywood's total revenue.

[KingoftheWorld]

1 minute ago, johnboy3434 said:

Really? All the independent studies I've read have said that piracy has had a very limited effect on Hollywood's total revenue.

 

Maybe not to a Hollywood's total revenue (although I am skeptical how anyone could proof it because so many different thinks affect it) but it absolutely has decreased HV sales. Especially in younger generations. It's completely delusional to deny that. Now days it's mostly film buffs that collect Blu-rays, 10 years ago almost every home had quite sizeable DVD collections.

[cannastop]

Zootopia is also going to be fucking huge on video. Just you see.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, cannastop said:

Zootopia is also going to be fucking huge on video. Just you see.

It'll sell somewhere between 2.1-2.3M Blu-Ray units.

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It'll sell somewhere between 2.1-2.3M Blu-Ray units.

OK, I'm new to this, and I was mostly bullshitting. What timeframe are you talking about here? And how would it compare to Frozen, in your opinion?

Edited May 6, 2016 by cannastop

[johnboy3434]

14 minutes ago, KingoftheWorld said:

 

Maybe not to a Hollywood's total revenue (although I am skeptical how anyone could proof it because so many different thinks affect it) but it absolutely has decreased HV sales. Especially in younger generations. It's completely delusional to deny that. Now days it's mostly film buffs that collect Blu-rays, 10 years ago almost every home had quite sizeable DVD collections.

 

Fair enough, but are you sure you're not conflating the effect of piracy with the effect of legal streaming services?

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, cannastop said:

OK, I'm new to this, and I was mostly bullshitting. What timeframe are you talking about here? And how would it compare to Frozen, in your opinion?

It definitely won't compare to Frozen  IO has sold 2.5M units and it had the benefit of Black Friday, so the 2.1-2.3 range for Zoo seems good.

[KingoftheWorld]

11 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

Fair enough, but are you sure you're not conflating the effect of piracy with the effect of legal streaming services?

 

Netflix etc. doesn't generally have any new movies so it's effect to HV sales of new releases probably isn't that big (at least compared to piracy).

 

And if by legal streaming services you meant pay-per-view platforms like iTunes and Google Play that do have new movies, no I don't think that I am conflating the effect of piracy when compared to legal streaming services. 10 years ago almost everyone had bough DVDs and most people had 10+ DVDs not just cinephiles. If you go and ask around how many have bough VOD titles I am quite sure that it's not even close to as usual as buying DVDs was 10 years. Netflix seems to be only digital alternative that is as popular as DVD once were. Sadly it's business model just doesn't generate even close as much revenue for film industry.

Edited May 6, 2016 by KingoftheWorld

[JeepCSC]

Not Netflix. iTunes is the main alternative to HV sales.

[KingoftheWorld]

10 years ago almost everyone had bought DVDs and most people had 10+ DVDs not just cinephiles. If you go and ask around how many have bough VOD titles from iTunes etc. I am quite sure that it's not even close to as common as buying DVDs was 10 years. Netflix seems to be only digital alternative that is as popular as DVD once were. Sadly it's business model just doesn't generate even close as much revenue for film industry.

Edited May 6, 2016 by KingoftheWorld

[KingoftheWorld]

3 minutes ago, JeepCSC said:

Not Netflix. iTunes is the main alternative to HV sales.

 

10 years ago almost everyone had bought DVDs and most people had 10+ DVDs not just cinephiles. If you go and ask around how many have bough VOD titles from iTunes etc. I am quite sure that it's not even close to as common as buying DVDs was 10 years. Netflix seems to be only digital alternative that is as popular as DVD once were. Sadly it's business model just doesn't generate even close as much revenue for film industry.

[langer]

On ‎3‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 2:31 PM, langer said:

 

The next few weeks should see bigger movies being released on HV:

The Peanuts Movie - 40M$ potential

Spectre - 50M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$ - definitely won't reach QoS's current 61M$)

Hunger Games MJ2 - 50M$-60M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$)

The Good Dinosaur - 50M$ potential (should recoup its bad DOM BO on HV...hopefully)

Alvin 4 - 35M$ potential

Star Wars - 150M$-200M$ potential (tricky prediction - this should definitely be better than JW's 125M$, but how high can it go?)

 

 

Just going back to some predictions I made 2 months ago before we get TFA's HV results next week.

 

Peanuts is currently at 25M and dropping quickly out of the top 25.  Will reach 30M, but 40M seems like a far away dream that only a sequel would bump there.

Spectre is at 33M and will also drop out of the top 25 shortly.   This will crawl to 40M.

HG- MJ2 is currently at 37M and should have no problem to reach 50M.  Will reach 60M when all is said and done (next Christmas).

Good Dinosaur is at 48M and will eventually reach 60M.  This is very low for a Pixar movie, but way better than its run in theaters. 

Alvin 4 is currently at 12M and will have a rough time just reaching 20M.  This is roughly a third of what Alvin 3 was able to do.  This franchise is hopefully dead.

 

Anyone fancy a prediction on SW?  With the various reports that we got, passing JW (125M) is a given.   Could it become the first movie to cross 200M combined since Frozen in 2014 or the first live action movie since Avengers in 2013?   

 

I personally think that the floor for TFA is 175M in its first 12 months on the HV market. 

[cannastop]

Where do you even get Video data? I want to bullshit about this topic as well!

[langer]

7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Where do you even get Video data? I want to bullshit about this topic as well!

 

Unreliable, but best source we have. 

http://www.the-numbers.com/weekly-video-sales-chart

[Arlborn]

11 minutes ago, langer said:

 

Anyone fancy a prediction on SW?  With the various reports that we got, passing JW (125M) is a given.   Could it become the first movie to cross 200M combined since Frozen in 2014 or the first live action movie since Avengers in 2013?   

 

I personally think that the floor for TFA is 175M in its first 12 months on the HV market. 

It's Star Wars, people wanna complete their collection, it'll fly past 200M. I'd say in the 200-250M range in a year.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, langer said:

 

Unreliable, but best source we have. 

http://www.the-numbers.com/weekly-video-sales-chart

I wonder why box office data is so transparent, but information about retail is kept secret.