How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS

[TalismanRing]

15 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Physical media maybe became collectible/high end edition heavy (specially the first week were all the pre-sales go through)

 

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_16?url=search-alias%3Dmovies-tv&field-keywords=dr+strange+steelbook&sprefix=Dr+strange+steel%2Cmovies-tv%2C160&crid=SRM0011WQB8B

 

Looking at amazon, price goes from $18.99, $35 to $69.95

 

 

 

The outrageous prices on collectible Steele Books goes for most films and that comes from second hand retailers who snatch them up the first week when they go from $25-30 and even that's a niche market.

 

Strange was priced like every other current MCU or Disney (or basically every major studio tent pole film) it's first week - at $19.99 - $24.99 for the Blu Ray.    There is no way it's avg sales price was  50% more than Civil War's.

 

The first week is often the lowest price for a few months until it goes down again.  Though for some it's weeks until it's cut even lower like with BvS when BRs were going for $14.99 after a month.

 

Edited June 30, 2017 by TalismanRing

[Barnack]

I really don't get those the-numbers figure of Strange or Suicide Squad if the high end collectible or 3D edition are marginal percentage of the sales.

[DeeCee]

Steelbook and regular often have the same price here. 

[dxmatrixdt]

http://www.the-numbers.com/weekly-bluray-sales-chart

 

Moana with a good number.  400K higher than Doctor Strange from the preview week.

[langer]

Moana's first week on Blu Ray is about the same as Secret Life of Pets in terms of units, but below both Finding Dory and Zootopia.  On the other hand, its $ figure is above all other 2016 animated movies with 36M$. 

 

Like many others have said before, the $ / units on The-Numbers is puzzling to say the least. 

[Mojoguy]

$ for Moana is wrong unless you believe the average cost for the bluray is $32.

So just go by units sold number like I said earlier.

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

$ for Moana is wrong unless you believe the average cost for the bluray is $32.

So just go by units sold number like I said earlier.

 

For comparative purposes that works for the first few weeks or months for most titles but some titles soon get heavily discounted to push out units sales and that skews things a different way.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

So just go by units sold number like I said earlier.

 

But it is not like they would have a better grasp on units sold.

[dxmatrixdt]

something does not seem right about this stat line from the blu-ray sales on thenumbers

1	(-)	Logan	706,953		706,953	$17,645,547	$17,645,547	2	Buy
2	(-)	The Great Wall	125,965		125,965	$3,399,792	$3,399,792	3	Buy
3	(-)	Get Out	97,920		97,920	$1,954,484	$1,954,484	3	Buy

http://www.the-numbers.com/weekly-bluray-sales-chart

 

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

something does not seem right here....

 

http://www.the-numbers.com/weekly-video-sales-chart

United States Combined DVD and Blu-ray Sales Chart for Week Ending May 28, 2017

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

 

Rank	Title	Units this Week	Total Units	Spending this Week	Total Spending	Weeks
1	Logan	891,314	891,314	$19,975,287	$19,975,287	2	Buy
2	The Great Wall	193,988	193,988	$4,552,583	$4,552,583	3	Buy
3	Get Out	159,243	159,243	$3,043,974	$3,043,974	3	Buy
4	Resident Evil: The Final Chapter	63,127	333,736	$1,086,236	$5,822,294	4	Buy

[dxmatrixdt]

Get Out must have sold well on digital because it is bombing below Great Wall on home video release

[Barnack]

Little update on home videos sales, everything trending as expected, maybe except electronic sell through going up despite the popularity of streaming package, EST has I think the biggest margin of profitability for a studio, in the past they were making as much as 16-18$ net by movie sold that way (you sell a movie digitally to someone, not much expense involved there) :

 

http://deadline.com/2018/01/u-s-home-entertainment-spending-rises-to-20-5-billion-1202239252/

 

 

5% growth can be misleading, because one the most profitable margin wise that was dvd sales continued to go down for the much less profitable for studios amazon/netflix type streaming growth.

 

Home entertainment spending is still almost the double than box office, so not bad (and that does not include TV), but for big new release I am not sure that it will be the case for the studios revenues like it was in the past.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Barnack

[baumer]

I went to purchase IT on BR and it was sold out.....haven't seen that in quite a while.

[Barnack]

Growth could stop obviously, but streaming could get bigger than box office in 2018 in american dollars spent, already at 9.55b with an over 30% growth last year (and this is US not US + canada like the domestic box office), must be already quite close.

[langer]

Reviewing last year's prediction of sequels impact on HV sales

 

Out of 6 guaranteed predictions, I was right on 4 (3 needed only 1M$ to reach their milestones) and was wrong on 2 (one needed 5M$ and gained 2M$ and the other one was not even released on HV at the time of the prediction). 

 

Of the 4 possible scenarios, 2 movies stayed flat and gained nothing, while two movies covered between 57% and 63% of the ground to reach their milestones. 

 

Spoiler

On ‎2017‎-‎01‎-‎29 at 4:21 PM, langer said:

2017 sequels impact and upcoming milestones

 

Underworld : Blood Wars

- Underworld 3 : Rise of the Lycans (50M$ DVD and combined) - currently 47M$ (possible) NO - stayed flat at 47M$

 

Logan

- X-Men : The Last Stand (150M$ DVD and combined) - currently 145M$ DVD and 146M$ combined (unlikely to both) NO - Stayed flat on both accounts

- The Wolverine (50M$ Blu Ray) - currently 41M$ (unlikely)  NO - Stayed flat on Blu Ray

 

The Fate of the Furious

- The Fast and the Furious : Tokyo Drift (50M$ DVD and combined) - currently  41M$ DVD and 42M$ combined (unlikely to both) NO - Stayed flat on both accounts

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

- Guardians of the Galaxy (50M$ DVD and 150M$ combined) - currently 49M$ DVD and 128M$ combined (guaranteed for DVD and unlikely for combined) - YES & NO - Gained 8M$ on DVD to reach 57M$ and gained 11M$ combined to reach 140M$. 

 

Pirates of the Caribbean : Dead Men Tell no Tales

- Pirates of the Caribbean : On Stranger Tides (100M$ combined)  - currently 90M$ (unlikely) - NO - Gained 4M$

 

Wonder Woman & Justice League

- Batman V Superman (50M$ Blu Ray) - currently 49M$ (guaranteed - should get it in 2016 once we get Thanksgiving and Christmas reporting) - YES - gained 6M$

 

Cars 3

- Cars 2 (50M$ Blu Ray and 150M$ combined) - currently 39M$ Blu Ray and 142M$ combined (unlikely for Blu Ray - possible for combined) NO - Gained 1M$ on Blu Ray and 5M$ combined

 

Transformers : The Last Knight

- Transformers : (300M$ DVD) - currently 295M$ (unlikely as it only received a 2M$ boost from the last entry) - NO - Stayed flat

 

Despicable Me 3

- Despicable Me (200M$ DVD and 300M$ combined) - currently 199M$ DVD and 277M$ combined (guaranteed for DVD, could get in with 2016 reporting - unlikely for combined) - YES & NO - Gained 2M$ on DVD - same for combined

- Despicable Me 2 (250M$ combined ) currently 245M$ (guaranteed) - WRONG PREDICTION - NO - Gained 2M$ - Will reach when Minions 2 is released (or before)

- Minions (50M$ DVD) - currently 48M$ (guaranteed) - YES - gained 3M$

 

Spider Man : Homecoming

- The Amazing Spider Man 2 (50M$ combined) - currently 47M$ (possible) NO - Stayed flat

 

War for the Planet of the Apes

- Rise of the Planet of the Apes (50M$ DVD) - currently 44M$ (unlikely) - NO - stayed flat

- Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (50M$ combined ) - currently 41M$ (unlikely) NO - gained 2M$

 

Thor : Ragnarok

- Thor (50M$ DVD, 50M$ Blu Ray & 100M$ combined) - currently 40M$ DVD & Blu Ray and 80M$ combined (unlikely to all milestones) NO - gained 2M$ Blu Ray and combined

- Thor : The Dark World (50M$ Blu Ray ) - currently 39M$ (unlikely) NO - gained 1M$ Blu Ray

- Avengers : AoU (50M$ Blu Ray) - currently 49,7M$ (guaranteed, should even reach it with the remaining 2016 reporting) YES - gained 1M$ Blu Ray

- Avengers (250M$ combined) - currently 234M$ (unlikely) NO - gained 1M$

 

Star Wars : The Last Jedi

- Star Wars : The Force Awakens (150M$ Blu Ray and 200M$ combined) - currently 133M$ Blu Ray & 163M$ combined (likely for Blu Ray - possible for combined as the boost will mostly be received in January & April 2018) NO on both - gained 15M$ Blu Ray and 21M$ combined - still possible to reach with Blu ray with 2 weeks left of reporting in 2017

- Rogue One : A Star Wars story (50M$ Blu Ray and 100M$ combined) - even though the movie is not out on HV yet, I predict it will reach both milestones with or without the "sequel" boost - Half wrong - Rogue reached 56M$ Blu Ray, but only 67M$ combined.  I don't think this will reach 100M$ in the foreseeable future

 

Pitch Perfect 3

- Pitch Perfect (100M$ DVD) - currently 89M$ (unlikely as it received only a 6M$ boost from the last entry) NO - gained 1M$

- Pitch Perfect 2 (50M$ combined) - currently 40M$ (unlikely) NO - gained 2M$

 

 

 

[langer]

2018 sequels impact and upcoming milestones

 

Maze Runner - The Death Cure

- The Maze Runner (50M$ combined) - currently 40M$ (impossible)

 

Avengers : Infinity Wars

- The Avengers (250M$ combined) - currently 235M$ (impossible)

- Iron Man (200M$ combined) - currently 196M$ (unlikely)

- Captain America : TFA (50M$ DVD) - currently 48M$ (possible)

- Guardians of the Galaxy (150M$ combined) - currently 140M$ (unlikely)

- Spider Man Homecoming (50M$ combined) - currently 44M$ (possible)

- Doctor Strange (50M$ combined) - currently 44M$ (possible)

 

Deadpool 2

- Deadpool (100M$ combined) - currently 99M$ (guaranteed)

 

Solo : A Star Wars story

- Star Wars The Force Awakens (150M$ Blu Ray and 200M$ combined) - currently 148M$ Blu Ray and 184M$ combined (guaranteed for Blu Ray, possible for combined)

- Star Wars The Last Jedi (50M$ Blu Ray and combined) - not yet released (possible for Blu Ray, guaranteed for combined)

 

Jurassic World :Fallen Kingdom

- Jurassic World (100M$ Blu Ray and 150M$ combined) - currently 94M$ Blu Ray and 133M$ combined (likely for Blu Ray, possible for combined)

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 : Summer Vacation

- Hotel Transylvania (100M$ combined) - currently 96M$ (likely)

 

Mission Impossible : Fallout

- Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol (50M$ combined) - currently 46M$ (unlikely)

 

Dark Phoenix

- X-Men : The Last Stand (150M$ DVD and 150M$ combined) - currently 145M$ DVD and 146M$ combined (unlikely to both)

 

 

2019 and future

How to Train your Dragon (200M$ combined) - currently 195M$

Iron Man (200M$ combined) - currently 196M$

Guardians of the Galaxy (150M$ combined) - currently 140M$

Secret Life of Pets (100M$ combined) - currently 97M$

Toy Story 3 (200M$ DVD and 250M$ combined) - currently 192M$ DVD and 249M$ combined

Transformers (300M$ DVD) - currently 295M$

Fate of the Furious (50M$ combined) - currently 45M$

Wonder Woman (100M$ combined) - currently 92M$

Frozen (400M$ combined) - currently 388M$

Rogue One : A Star Wars story (100M$ combined) - currently 78M$

Despicable Me 2 (250M$ combined) - currently 247M$

The Croods (50M$ DVD) - currently 48M$

Avatar (400M$ combined) - currently 398M$

Spider Man Homecoming (50M$ combined) - currently 44M$

[Mojoguy]

The Last Jedi Blu and DVD combined sales down 42% from The Force Awakens in the first week.

TLJ 2.38 million units
TFA 4.09 million units

Edited June 9, 2018 by Mojoguy

[Ryan Reynolds]

Star Wars is dead, if only someone would tell Lucasfilm what to do

[Mojoguy]

Star Wars is dead, if only someone would tell Lucasfilm what to do

I think it's the decline of physical media sales in general.

Also, for godsake stop putting your movies on Netflix so damn quickly.

[Ryan Reynolds]

9 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I think it's the decline of physical media sales in general.

Also, for godsake stop putting your movies on Netflix so damn quickly.

i didn't buy it cause i knew the boxset was 2 years away and would be on netflix if i needed to watch