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Impact

2015 Best Picture predictions!

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Boyhood was just Linklater doing his very personal crazy thing and it only got nominated because the result was so impressive and practically impossible to argue with. It wasn't an Important Movie About Important Issues, wasn't really sentimental, barely had a plot, hell, its entire damn point was that it wanted to avoid the conventions of coming-of-age movies. Easy to take its nominations for granted now, but it's a mistake.

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On December 4, 2015 at 8:13:19 AM, stripe said:

Spirits are not that important as an indicator of what will be embraced by Oscars. Room won at Tiff (this usually means a BP nom) and it was in the top 10 by NBR.

 

Avatar was nommed not because of it's BO. It was a rare case where critics embrace an original film that is also a smashing hit and a cultural phenomenon. Star Wars 7 is a franchise film that will try to get attention in an already crowded BP field. It needs glowing reviews to be considered. Keep in mind Academy snubbed Wall-E and TDK making room for The reader, Milk and Frost/Nixon.

Avatar was only nominated for its box office and it was James Cameron film. 

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Avatar was nominated primarily because of the fact that it lived up to commercial and industry hype in astonishing fashion. Even though just about everyone recognized that the script was nothing special from day one, it was regarded as a game-changer within the industry. After more than a decade of talking up his film, James Cameron delivered about as fully on his promises as anyone could have asked, given the film's genre. What's more, none of the more traditional Oscar bait (The Lovely Bones, Invictus, Nine) stuck, so there was plenty of room for a populist smash to break through.

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On ‎12‎/‎1‎/‎2015‎ ‎10‎:‎20‎:‎29‎, Impact said:

Nom count:

 

10: The Martian and The Revenant

6: Carol, Inside Out, Spotlight and Star Wars: The Force Awakens

5: The Hateful 8 and Joy

4: Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road and Room

3: The Danish Girl

2: Cinderella and Steve Jobs  

Looking at my predicts-some I might change, though not sure what yet.

My win count:

5: The Martian

3: The Revenant

2: Cinderella, Inside Out and Star Wars 7

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17 hours ago, Halba said:

its going to be spotlight. its the clear leader, only joy(unseen) can top it. hateful eight, like revenant, is too violent.

 

martian is over rated a bit on these boards

My problem with saying Spotlight is the frontrunner is that nothing about it said "BP winner" to me. It doesn't seem like the kind of movie that actually wins and I would have never guessed in a million years it was considered the early frontrunner if I didn't know already from the internet. 

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updated predicts for noms in order of likelihood.

 

1. Spotlight

2. The Martian

3. The Revenant

4. Joy

5. The Hateful Eight

6. Brooklyn

7. Creed

8. Room

9. Bridge of Spies

10. Carol

 

 

*******

alts- inside out, son of saul,

Edited by Halba
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1 hour ago, Spaghetti said:

I'm starting to wonder if Hateful Eight can take this year. Quentin Tarantino just seems due to win eventually somewhere.

 

Tarantino has won 2 oscars for screenplay so it's not like the oscars have ignored him.

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3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Joy is getting PANNED! 

 

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/joy_2014/

 

This throws a major changeup in the race.

 

That makes me happy, in a strange way.  American Hustle was so overrated that O. Russell needed something to knock him off his pretentious high horse

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(in order of DOM gross) 

  • Star Wars Episode VII: $550 million+ DOM (being extra conservative!) 
  • Inside Out: $355 million 
  • The Martian: $230 million 
  • Mad Max - Fury Road: $155 million
  • Creed: $145 million 
  • The Hateful Eight: $135 million 
  • The Revenant: $80 million 
  • Bridge of Spies: $75 million 
  • Spotlight: $40 million 
  • Brooklyn/Carol/Room: $? million 

Mad Max and Creed are wild-cards. 

 

 

 

 

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