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LexJoker

4-Day Wknd Est: AS - 105.3M, Pad - 25.2M, TWR - 24.5M,Taken 3 - 17.44M (pg 109)

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Thanks to AMERICAN SNIPER.

 

Year Gross* 2015
% change
2014
% change
2013
% change
2012
% change
2011
% change
2010
% change
2015 $476.7 - +2.6% -0.0% -1.2% +6.6% -22.8%
2014 $464.7 -2.5% - -2.5% -3.7% +3.9% -24.8%
2013 $476.7 +0.0% +2.6% - -1.2% +6.6% -22.8%
2012 $482.4 +1.2% +3.8% +1.2% - +7.9% -21.9%
2011 $447.0 -6.2% -3.8% -6.2% -7.3% - -27.6%
2010 $617.5 +29.6% +32.9% +29.5% +28.0% +38.1% -

 

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So what's more surprising run of 2014... American Sniper or Guardians of the Galaxy? Both could be top 3 for the year, and absolutely nobody predicted that!

American Sniper since people had GotG in their top ten list. When last time an Oscar rated R movie finished in the top 3 of year. 

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This is, IMO, the most shocking OW I have ever witnessed, by far. This thing is gonna do 100M over the 4 day weekend. That is insane. It doesn't matter what perspective I take to look at his success, it is insane. I do have to say the final trailer is absolutely fantastic, but still, in no way I would predict 100M in 4 day.

Edited by CJohn
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So what's more surprising run of 2014... American Sniper or Guardians of the Galaxy? Both could be top 3 for the year, and absolutely nobody predicted that!

 

It would be American Sniper and it's not close. 

Edited by druv10
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My guess

Fri: 30.5m

Sat: 33.6m (10% increase)

Sun: 21.8m (35% decrease)

Mon: 17.4m (20% decrease)

3 Day: 85.9m

4 Day: 103.3m

Then with each comparable multiplier

Lone Survivor: 283.5m

Black Hawk Down: 326.4m

Zero Dark Thirty: 334.2m

Passion of the Christ: 378m

Gran Torino: 431.2m

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It would be American Sniper and it's not close.

I guess I'd have to agree with you and Snoopy. Guardians, while opening to 94M, was still predicted to do around 70, so the change isn't quite as drastic. American Sniper is set to do 2 or 3 times as much as anyone was willing to guess. I have to say, while it is yet to be seen how good of legs this film has (and if it can surpass the relatively outstanding holds by Guardians) American Sniper has to be one of the most shocking Opening Weekends I have ever experienced in my short time following the box office (I missed out on Avengers by a few monthes).
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My guess

Fri: 30.5m

Sat: 33.6m (10% increase)

Sun: 21.8m (35% decrease)

Mon: 17.4m (20% decrease)

3 Day: 85.9m

4 Day: 103.3m

Then with each comparable multiplier

Lone Survivor: 283.5m

Black Hawk Down: 326.4m

Zero Dark Thirty: 334.2m

Passion of the Christ: 378m

Gran Torino: 431.2m

Dear God if this made 400M+, I would just stop predicting box office due to pure shock.

Wouldn't it suck though if the most surprising and spectacular run of 2015 happened in January, and the rest of the year isn't as amazing :(

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Dear God if this made 400M+, I would just stop predicting box office due to pure shock.

Wouldn't it suck though if the most surprising and spectacular run of 2015 happened in January, and the rest of the year isn't as amazing :(

My guess is it follows Black Hawk Down, but I wouldn't be too surprised at this point if it played more like Passion.

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