AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney

[#ED]

How?

 

Note: This chart only shows the top 200 movies, regardless of sorting.

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weeknd Gross*	% of Total	Theaters / Avg.		Total Gross^	Date**
1	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$103,052,274	16.5%	4,349	$23,696	$623,357,910	5/4/12
2	Avatar	Fox	$75,617,183	10.1%	3,456	$21,880	$749,766,139	12/18/09
3	The Dark Knight	WB	$75,166,466	14.1%	4,366	$17,216	$533,345,358	7/18/08
4	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	LGF	$74,179,601	17.5%	4,163	$17,819	$424,668,047	11/22/13
5	Iron Man 3	BV	$72,525,615	17.7%	4,253	$17,053	$409,013,994	5/3/13

 

It's going to be above Avatar's 2nd weekend, thus making it the 2nd best "2nd weekend". Excuse my lack of wording.

[baumer]

Note: This chart only shows the top 200 movies, regardless of sorting.

Rank Title (click to view) Studio Weeknd

Gross*

% of Total Theaters / Avg. Total Gross^ Date** 1 Marvel's The Avengers BV $103,052,274 16.5% 4,349 $23,696 $623,357,910 5/4/12 2 Avatar Fox $75,617,183 10.1% 3,456 $21,880 $749,766,139 12/18/09 3 The Dark Knight WB $75,166,466 14.1% 4,366 $17,216 $533,345,358 7/18/08 4 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire LGF $74,179,601 17.5% 4,163 $17,819 $424,668,047 11/22/13 5 Iron Man 3 BV $72,525,615 17.7% 4,253 $17,053 $409,013,994 5/3/13

 

It's going to be above Avatar's 2nd weekend, thus making it the 2nd best "2nd weekend". Excuse my lack of wording.

 

But you are saying it's going to make more than Avengers did on it's second weekend?  There's absolutely no chance of that.

[FTF]

How?

I assume he meant 2nd best 2nd weekend.

[Orestes]

But you are saying it's going to make more than Avengers did on it's second weekend?  There's absolutely no chance of that.

 

No, he's saying it'll do more than Avatar did on Avatar's 2nd weekend.

[#ED]

But you are saying it's going to make more than Avengers did on it's second weekend?  There's absolutely no chance of that.

 

No, I'm saying it will be the 2nd best "2nd weekend", the 1st being The Avengers.

[kitik]

I do agree with you in a sense....but there is one big missing factor.  None of those were in 3D.  I'm sure the diminishing interest in 3D had something to with it missing 200.

 

 

Ah yes, the decline of 3D shares likely hurt it too.

 

I wonder how it really compares attendance-wise with Avengers 1.

[redfirebird2008]

 See how we can't let go of our method for predicting this movie? Our predictions couldn't have been wrong...the movie was "disappointing" instead! How dare it not match our predictions! Why...look at how we used other movies to make our prediction! See how sound our logic was?

Well...predicting Avengers opening weekends obviously isn't that easy since no one has been able to do it yet.  The old methods for prediction don't work.  The predictions are obviously disappointing...but the movie knocked it out of the park.

 

I think not understanding that having the 2nd biggest OW of all time is a great performance is faulty thinking.   A lot of people having unrealistic expectations does not make the movie the problem.   It just means that a lot of people were wrong.   This isn't the first time a lot of people were wrong about an Avengers movie.   There is a pattern here.    Experts are using faulty logic for predicting Avengers movies. 

 

 

 

I was one of the first people to eat crow on Saturday morning. I readily admit my prediction was totally wrong. What I won't admit is that anyone was crazy for looking at the history of sequels and thinking there was a chance of a new record. Nobody was crazy for that. We were wrong. The unpredictability of box office is what makes it interesting.

[doublejack]

SM1 destroyed the record by an even bigger percentage. So did B89 for that matter. Their sequels still opened bigger. People were not crazy for looking at history and using that as a guide. Just as the history suggested TA2 was not going to match TA1's 623 total, it also suggested that there was a very good chance of it beating TA1's opening.

 

Your comparison is not quite accurate, though. SM1 and B89 had direct sequels with no related movies in between. That's obviously not the case with Ago of Ultron. Since TA1, Marvel fans have had several movies to go see. This is a completely different model, nothing like it has been attempted before. So you can't say there was any evidence that Ultron should have opened bigger than TA1. Such proof doesn't exist.

[redfirebird2008]

Your comparison is not quite accurate, though. SM1 and B89 had direct sequels with no related movies in between. That's obviously not the case with Ago of Ultron. Since TA1, Marvel fans have had several movies to go see. This is a completely different model, nothing like it has been attempted before. So you can't say there was any evidence that Ultron should have opened bigger than TA1. Such proof doesn't exist.

 

I understand what you're trying to say (I don't entirely agree with it). I do agree with the theory IM3 received the biggest boost from TA1 as the first MCU movie released after May 2012.

[John Marston]

I hope the actual is 193m

[Mr Terrific]

Is it good or bad that people aren't blaming Hydra for the drop?

Are people realizing it is more Thanos' fault?

Edited May 4, 2015 by Mr Terrific

[ecstasy]

I hope the actual is 193m

 

I don't see much difference in 191 and 193. 

 

I'm just happy it didn't decrease from the 187.  Thank would have been awful. 

 

I think next weekend there'll be a little more "correction".  

[Darth Homer]

I actually think the fact that the other Phase II films didn't really build up to anything in AOU (aside from the twins appearing in TWS's credits) might have hurt it, too. Everything in Phase I was leading to the Avengers assembling, which made it feel more like an event. AOU felt more like just another episode in the MCU series. Dropping hints about Ultron (maybe even having him created before the start of AOU) would have built more excitement.

Edited May 4, 2016 by Darth Homer

[lilmac]

LOL at Fishnets' Twitter. She's freaking out that AOU might increase slightly from estimates and threaten her boy Abrams' SW fan film taking the domestic crown.

 

I actually think the fact that the other Phase II films didn't really build up to anything in AOU (aside from the twins appearing in TWS's credits) might have hurt AOU, too. Everything in Phase I was leading to the Avengers assembling, which made it feel more like an event. AOU felt more like just another episode in the MCU series. Dropping hints about Ultron (maybe even having him created before the start of AOU) would have built more excitement.

 

Avengers was the first assemble, plain and simple. This time it wasn't new.

[Claire of Themyscira]

Bottom line is those of us who predicted less than 200M should pat ourselves on the back and realize this is one of the great achievements of our lives. It's all downhill from here.

Maybe, you all oldies and men, but I have a lot to live for. I'm amazingly versatile, pretty, multi-talented, determined, and charismatic, so it should be ALL uphill for me.

 

[ecstasy]

Well here is my take on sequels opening bigger than the first film.  I think its accurate assumption in most situations. However, I really felt like the Avengers was too big to expect the sequel to open higher.

 

Baumer said something back on BOM a long time ago that always stuck with me.   You can use all the tools you want but sometimes you have to go with your gut or something like that.  My gut was screaming that this would open below TA.  It was just too big and too special.  As much as I would have loved to see another record breaking weekend I wasn't bummed that it fell short.   A lot of things came together.

[Claire of Themyscira]

Well here is my take on sequels opening bigger than the first film.  I think its accurate assumption in most situations. However, I really felt like the Avengers was too big to expect the sequel to open higher.

 

Baumer said something back on BOM a long time ago that always stuck with me. You can use all the tools you want but sometimes you have to go with your gut or something like that. My gut was screaming that this would open below TA. It was just too big and too special. As much as I would have loved to see another record breaking weekend I wasn't bummed that it fell short. A lot of things came together.

Speak on it, sis!

 

 

Baumer remains influential.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Well, it does, after all, appear the derby parties bleeding into the boxing match diminished returns enough this past Saturday/Sunday to halt it from a $200M+ weekend. Likely the 3D share going down as well. Either way, $190M+ for any OW is pretty gargantuan.

 

Is it possible this one has a better 2nd weekend than expected given some likely saved more disposable income for next week and opted for the fight this week? Like $90M+ is the number I'm alluding to...

Edited May 4, 2015 by JohnnyGossamer

[spizzer]

I do agree with you in a sense....but there is one big missing factor. None of those were in 3D. I'm sure the diminishing interest in 3D had something to with it missing 200.

Nah, the 3D share fell from 52% to 47%, BUT when you account for 3 years of inflation and the fact that the 3D IMAX and 3D Premium format shares jumped from 12% -> 18%, that 5% overall 3D drop is counteracted.

The reason it fell from the first is because on the OW the first sold ~21.8M tickets and the 2nd sold about ~18.5M tickets (with the 191M estimate). There was a 15% dropoff in upfront demand.

And FWIW, 191 is 4.5% off from 200M. At this level of gross we'll emphasize differences like this, but there isn't a huge fundamental difference between 191 and 200. We wouldn't see it as a big deal if it was 19.1M vs. 20M, or even 22M.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Spizzer - Manav

[redfirebird2008]

Well here is my take on sequels opening bigger than the first film.  I think its accurate assumption in most situations. However, I really felt like the Avengers was too big to expect the sequel to open higher.

 

Baumer said something back on BOM a long time ago that always stuck with me.   You can use all the tools you want but sometimes you have to go with your gut or something like that.  My gut was screaming that this would open below TA.  It was just too big and too special.  As much as I would have loved to see another record breaking weekend I wasn't bummed that it fell short.   A lot of things came together.

 

You nailed the prediction. You were around 190, right? Great job.