GiantCALBears Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Uh, yea, that's not how people work, man. They aren't robots. Saturday afternoon, you go grocery shopping, play with the kids, shit like that. Saturday night, you might go out with your wife or your girlfriend to a movie usually. But tonight, they have another option, a once-in-a-decade thing for even casual sports fans. People don't work their schedules around movies like we do in the real world. Forget it, he appears to be a lost cause. Let him believe it will have no impact lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 I posted this the other day, but I think us people on here at a box office site fundamentally sometimes don't understand how alot of people watch movies. For alot of people, if you miss it at the time you would normally watch it, you don't just go find another time to see it. People are busy. Most people set aside Saturday night to go see a movie with some buddies or a date with dinner. It's not a part of their souls like it is for us and here (and probably alot of the people we hang out with). It's just an activity you do on a Saturday night. And if it gets bumped because you're going to a fight party, maybe you don't watch it till next weekend. I'm not going to argue again that I think the fight audience is gonna be big enough to chop off one or two million tonight- I've made that clear- but using yourself, who has already seen a movie twice in the day it has been out, as an example for how casual people watch movies is just dead wrong. ^^^^ This, times a thousand. There's a reason movies make money beyond their first weekends, not just because of word of mouth but people are busy with errands, stuff around the house, kids, non-moviegoing forms of recreation... If they can't fit in a trip to see the newest release during their preferred time to go to the movies, they'll just go some other time, some other day. Most of my coworkers/family/friends would look at me like I had three heads if I ever mentioned that I'd seen the same movie in theaters more than once. They're amazed I can rattle off all the movies coming out on a particular weekend. A lot of people just don't care that much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cory Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 I never thought TDK or Spiderman came come to The Avengers in tickets sold. Not one bit. You thought they were less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VGPOP Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 How will this board react if number is less than $200 million? Less than $190 million? Less than $185 million? Less than $180 million? It's going to be interesting because I am on board for less than $180 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 So that's $57m outside of previews, wasn't TA1 in the mid $60s??? LOL 62M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilmBuff Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 62M And a much bigger Midnight/Preview number. Avengers 2 is still headed for 65+ Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 (edited) No I'm not. Are you accounting for the fact SM1/TA1 were magnets for little kids while TDK wasn't? Are you accounting for the fact SM1 had zero boost from IMAX? I think all three of them are in a similar spot when you account for everything (kid prices, IMAX, 3D, inflation, etc.). Yes on the IMAX front. Accounting for kids I do agree with you on, so fair point. FWIW, BOM has SM1/TA/TDK all at a 50/50 split over/under the age of 25, so it's tough to say what the proportion of >age 12/11 tickets sold was, given that that determination is not a perfect art either. 50% were between ages 0 and 25, which means 52% of the ages in that range would not even qualify for children's tickets (or 56% if 11 is the qualifying age), not to mention the fact that the lowest age end range, close to 0, is not likely not part of the audience at all. Still, let's take an extreme scenario, TDK with 0% children's tickets (which absolutely did not happen), and SM1/TA with 25% (which likely did not happen). If I assume the children's ticket prices were 80% of the adult prices, here's what I get: SM1 - 73.6M TDK - 73.0M TA - 69.6M So I suppose we can say so with TDK and SM1, though when I account for the fact that SM1 probably did not have a 25% share under 11/12, and that TDK absolutely did have a share greater than 0%, TDK comes out ahead. TA lags clearly behind the other two though. Edited May 2, 2015 by Spizzer - Manav 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 How will this board react if number is less than $200 million? Less than $190 million? Less than $185 million? Less than $180 million? It's going to be interesting because I am on board for less than $180 million. Wait, didn't you say it was doing 230 million yesterday? Or was that someone else? Arguments are really starting to run together in this topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 How will this board react if number is less than $200 million? Less than $190 million? Less than $185 million? Less than $180 million? It's going to be interesting because I am on board for less than $180 million. WTF? Weren't you predicting $108m opening day and enormous weekend total? Now you're saying less than $180m weekend? I think $185m is the bare minimum we will see. Likely in the 190's somewhere. If it can make over $195m on its own, I believe Disney will give it the necessary fudge to reach $200m in their weekend report. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 What? You think it's crazy that GotG 2 could do Furious 7 OW numbers, or you think it's crazy that it will be above the first movie? I mean, it's two years out. Don't see why it couldn't go either way. no one knows anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 And a much bigger Midnight/Preview number. Avengers 2 is still headed for 65+ Saturday. You act like the bigger midnights is a good thing, it's not at all. The exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 I am ok with thought that SM1 could have sold more tickets as it did not have Imax plus it would have sold more kiddie tickets. But no way Avengers is close to TDK. I know, I'm accounting for TDK at 50M IMAX and SM1 at 0 IMAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goffe Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 I just woke up and saw the number THERE IS A GOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 What? You think it's crazy that GotG 2 could do Furious 7 OW numbers, or you think it's crazy that it will be above the first movie? This reminds me, F7 is now the fourth biggest movie ever WW. So you've got Cameron and Cameron, Marvel and then Fast and Furious. Let that sink in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VGPOP Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Wait, didn't you say it was doing 230 million yesterday? Or was that someone else? Arguments are really starting to run together in this topic. Yes I was. And just like that, I lowered to $178 million. Imagine that! WTF? Weren't you predicting $108m opening day and enormous weekend total? Now you're saying less than $180m weekend? I think $185m is the bare minimum we will see. Likely in the 190's somewhere. If it can make over $195m on its own, I believe Disney will give it the necessary fudge to reach $200m in their weekend report. We'll see. That's why I like to see reactions from people here if it makes way less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omario Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Change the tread title to 102mil just to get BKBs hopes up as he clicks on the tread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Well... that was unexpected. I thought DH2 was going down for sure. Is it strange I feel a little relieved? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 (edited) I know, I'm accounting for TDK at 50M IMAX and SM1 at 0 IMAX. All I know is this. If you assume the IMAX $50m would have been more like $29m without the extra IMAX premium (I'm assuming 75% higher for IMAX vs. regular), TDK makes $512m. SM1 adjusted to 2008 average price is $498m. You don't think SM1 potentially had enough extra child tickets to bridge the $14m gap between them? The two of them are very close and it's quite possible SM1 was bigger. That said, TDK was a dark ass movie and it's impressive as hell to get that many adults to show up for it...especially after BB made almost 3 times less. Edited May 2, 2015 by redfirebird2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VGPOP Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 When can we know some Saturday projections? It's now 1:00pm in ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalel009Shel Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Stick an Infinity Stone in the middle of my forehead and I become VISION.. lol bkb i predicted 230m x and 590 m dom. its not quite as gd as the original so repeat business could fall off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
